Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
It has come to my attention that some readers are still looking at the projection I made several months ago and believe that is current. That is not the case.
The Raptors - as currently constructed - are going to fare a bit worse this season. Although I have revealed my predicted win totals a couple of times in the past week or so, I haven't posted a detailed account. So here it is, the updated team numbers for the coming season:
So the Raptors - barring significant trades or injuries - stand to win around 27 games this season. Unless, of course, some Raptors play like they did during the preseason. But previous seasons are a better predictor of player productivity than preseason numbers, so the above spreadsheet is a more reliable prediction than anything based on preseason numbers.
Some factors that might affect these predictions:
- Based on last year's numbers, I have Reggie Evans down for only 762 minutes. If Evans gets more playing time this year (and it looks like he might), the Raptors will win more games
- Calderon has a projected WP48 of about 0.180. If he continues to struggle like last year (and this preseason), the Raptors will lose more games
- Barbosa might have a better WP48 this season (then again, he might not). His production has been rather unstable over his career, and the Raptors win totals could decrease by as many as 2 wins or increase by as many as 3 wins depending on his production.
- All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
- Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
- The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
- Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.