Monday, October 25, 2010

Updated 2010-11 Team Projection

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)

For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.

It has come to my attention that some readers are still looking at the projection I made several months ago and believe that is current. That is not the case.

The Raptors - as currently constructed - are going to fare a bit worse this season. Although I have revealed my predicted win totals a couple of times in the past week or so, I haven't posted a detailed account. So here it is, the updated team numbers for the coming season:

So the Raptors - barring significant trades or injuries - stand to win around 27 games this season. Unless, of course, some Raptors play like they did during the preseason. But previous seasons are a better predictor of player productivity than preseason numbers, so the above spreadsheet is a more reliable prediction than anything based on preseason numbers.

Some factors that might affect these predictions:
  • Based on last year's numbers, I have Reggie Evans down for only 762 minutes. If Evans gets more playing time this year (and it looks like he might), the Raptors will win more games
  • Calderon has a projected WP48 of about 0.180. If he continues to struggle like last year (and this preseason), the Raptors will lose more games
  • Barbosa might have a better WP48 this season (then again, he might not). His production has been rather unstable over his career, and the Raptors win totals could decrease by as many as 2 wins or increase by as many as 3 wins depending on his production.
All in all, 27 wins seems like a pretty good projection. For more WoW based season predictions, head on over to the Wages of Wins Network 2011 Super Stat Geek Smackdown.

 - Devin.


  1. So you've decided to send Alabi to the D-League? Perhaps the right thing to do. Since you're making managerial decisions, how's the Bargnani trade shaping up? Might want to package Calderon (and DeRozan) with him.

    I know the numbers like Calderon, but I think it's reasonable to think that Jack will, barring his elbow problem making him miss a bunch of games, outproduce Jose this year. I think it's an example of the team's system not fitting the player. Jose might regain some of his productivity in a slower, more half-court, offence.

    I also wonder if Anderson might inch into the orange or yellow this year. As you said, a rich-man's Bargnani. Wonder who needs a stretch-4 and would be willing to take on 5 years of salary. Man, that's going to be a tougher and tougher trade to make as the season drags on, I think.

  2. 27 wins seems good,

    your wp48 of .200 for Jose (although you say it's only .180 in the article) seems a little high and I would assume it would be more like last year.

    Although Evans and Barbosa will contribute more (IMHO) so again 27-30 seems doable.

  3. Some players have been adjusted a little with the "age/injury adjustment" - Calderon's WP48 x 90% = 0.180. But then, after that, he and all the other players on the team have their production reduced in order for the minutes to make sense, and then all the Eastern Conference teams have one win subtracted from their totals (Western Conference teams had three wins subtracted, due to the stronger level of competition).

    Alabi is not likely to be good this year; I'm betting that the Raptors are going to acquire another big man, either through trade or free agency (Dampier please!).

    Trading Bargnani is hard - I would first have to find a team that would want him. Maybe the Suns or the Knicks?

    Jose does not look good so far, and his career trajectory has been going the wrong direction. Right now, it does look as if he will do a lot worse than his projection. But things may change, and he does have a history of solid performance, so I penalized him (age/injury adj) and hoped that he improves.

    Andersen has looked pretty good in preseason - close to an average EWP48 of 0.100 - but the guy's already 30 years old! Hopefully, with his first year of experience under his belt, he'll improve on last year's mark, but...I'm not counting on it.

    Even if he doesn't, he's still a rich man's Bargnani :)