Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
Here are what the team numbers look like after six (of eight) preseason games:
And here is how the numbers have changed since the last review:
Here are my thoughts about the last two games (against familiar opponents):
- We're still seeing a lot of regression to the norm, particularly for players who haven't played many minutes (Alabi, Wright, Banks, Dorsey, and Dupree)
- Kleiza, Jack, and Dorsey continue to produce at excellent levels, and in fact improved upon their already excellent per-minute production
- Evans and Johnson have gotten themselves out of the holes they dug in the first four games. Both are now approaching their expected WP48s for the coming season
- Barbosa, Weems, and DeRozan have all seen a decline in production, mostly due to poor shooting from the field
- Playing against the Suns for the second time, Bargnani had his first positive contribution: EWP48 0.258 and EWP 0.134
- Unfortunately, even including that game, Bargnani has almost caused one whole loss (EWP -0.919) in only six games (yikes)
- Calderon watch - he had his best game of the preseason against the Suns: EWP48 0.276 and EWP 0.121
- Calderon continues to slowly improve his per-minute production, but is still a negative contributor at the moment
- Jack and Kleiza have produced more than one win apiece. Together these two players have been responsible for about 69% of the team's wins.
- Amir Johnson had a huge game against the Suns: EWP48 0.781 and EWP 0.407
- David Andersen is a rich man's Andrea Bargnani - he shoots better and rebounds better
- The Suns have been out-rebounded by the Raptors twice; with Amaré gone, their lack of a quality big man is apparent
- Last review I forgot to mention Jrue Holiday's huge game against the Raptors: a triple-double, EWP48 0.612 and EWP 0.587. Too bad for him he only got help from Evan Turner and Jodie Meeks
Final observation for this installment: the Raptors EWP totals add up to 3.13 wins, and after six games their record is 3 wins and 3 losses. Who knew that Wins Produced was so good at explaining player productivity in NBA games?
- All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
- Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
- The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
- Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.