Monday, October 18, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #3 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)

Here are what the team numbers look like after six (of eight) preseason games:

And here is how the numbers have changed since the last review:

Here are my thoughts about the last two games (against familiar opponents):
  • We're still seeing a lot of regression to the norm, particularly for players who haven't played many minutes (Alabi, Wright, Banks, Dorsey, and Dupree)
  • Kleiza, Jack, and Dorsey continue to produce at excellent levels, and in fact improved upon their already excellent per-minute production
  • Evans and Johnson have gotten themselves out of the holes they dug in the first four games. Both are now approaching their expected WP48s for the coming season
  • Barbosa, Weems, and DeRozan have all seen a decline in production, mostly due to poor shooting from the field
  • Playing against the Suns for the second time, Bargnani had his first positive contribution: EWP48 0.258 and EWP 0.134
  • Unfortunately, even including that game, Bargnani has almost caused one whole loss (EWP -0.919) in only six games (yikes)
  • Calderon watch - he had his best game of the preseason against the Suns: EWP48 0.276 and EWP 0.121
  • Calderon continues to slowly improve his per-minute production, but is still a negative contributor at the moment
  • Jack and Kleiza have produced more than one win apiece. Together these two players have been responsible for about 69% of the team's wins.
  • Amir Johnson had a huge game against the Suns: EWP48 0.781 and EWP 0.407
  • David Andersen is a rich man's Andrea Bargnani - he shoots better and rebounds better
  • The Suns have been out-rebounded by the Raptors twice; with Amaré gone, their lack of a quality big man is apparent
  • Last review I forgot to mention Jrue Holiday's huge game against the Raptors: a triple-double, EWP48 0.612 and EWP 0.587. Too bad for him he only got help from Evan Turner and Jodie Meeks

Final observation for this installment: the Raptors EWP totals add up to 3.13 wins, and after six games their record is 3 wins and 3 losses. Who knew that Wins Produced was so good at explaining player productivity in NBA games?

 - Devin

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