Showing posts with label jarrett jack. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jarrett jack. Show all posts

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Week 6 Auto WP Numbers

New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.


Ahhhh, I now (temporarily) have my own computer to work on for the next couple of weeks, and because of that, I can now post the Week 6 numbers. These stats are up-to-date as of 12/08, with the exception of the WP numbers, which are an additional day behind. So here are the numbers, which are - as is always the case - Powered by Nerd Numbers (full spreadsheet here):



Here are my thoughts:
  • Bargnani had finally had a good game against the Knicks, but it won't be enough to offset his previous two bad games, let alone his whole season to date (and remember, the WP numbers are a game behind right now). I'm not the only one who has noticed Bargs' lack of productivity, by the way. If he played every game as well as that one, I'd be his biggest fan! But it's far, far more likely that he'll continue to play poorly.
  • Bayless really seems to have decided to play better ever since I proclaimed that Jarrett Jack's current season would be better than Bayless would ever be. I sure hope he keeps proving me wrong! He's almost been playing at a superstar level ever since he came to the Raptors...and he has been out-rebounding the team's starting centre.
  • Ed Davis has been quite good during his first few games as an NBA player - something that I (and others) expected - although he's been even better than we thought. In fact, he's already sixth on the team in wins, despite only having played 88 minutes so far.
  • As good as Davis has been playing, Joey Dorsey has been better. Dorsey is pretty similar to Reggie Evans - as I and others have noted in the past - so why not give Dorsey some more minutes?
  • All of the Raptors' bigs - with the exception of Bargnani - have been quite productive. Maybe the team would have more success if Bargnani played fewer minutes and took fewer shots? The team isn't exactly tearing it up...why not give it a try?
  • The other four horsemen - Barbosa, Kleiza, and DeRozan - have continued to be unproductive. I'd like like to nominate Sonny Weems as a new addition to the group, as his shot-happy ways have lowered his productivity. What new term should we use for this group of five players? The Five Tenors? The Final Five? Nothing really works quite as well as what David Berri came up with...I guess that's why he makes the big bucks.
  • I'm glad Calderon is back to his old self - let's hope he keeps playing well.
  • Still waiting for the Raps to make an additional roster move - Stojakovic has missed a bunch of games and the team needs some more useful guard/forwards. There is also still an open roster spot, and with Dampier landing (and - strangely - not playing very much) in Miami, I really have no idea what's going on on that front.

Team stats update coming soon!

 - Devin

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Week 5 WP numbers

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


After almost a week travelling to and fro, I'm back and ready to post the Week 5 auto WP numbers. A lot of important things have happened, especially Reggie Evans going down with a broken foot and the imminent return of Ed Davis. Here are the numbers (spreadsheet here):



Here are my thoughts:

  • Reggie. The player with the third highest WP48 in the league (minimum 100 MP) was the driving force behind the relatively surprising Raptors. Now that he's out for 4-6 weeks with a broken foot, the team is going to have to find a way to replace his productivity (which was mainly due to rebounding).
  • Could that player be Joey Dorsey? I've said it over and over - when Dorsey gets playing time, he produces at a very high level. He started in Evans' place the other day and replaced him quite nicely. Surprisingly, Dorsey's rebounding is very similar to Reggie's. The only problem he might face is foul-trouble and a lack of minutes.
  • With Jack gone, Calderon has picked it up quite a bit. Perhaps the Hornets trade has lead to some psychological gains in his case. He's really only improved with regards to shooting, something I've been waiting for, so it's not unexpected.
  • Bayless and Stojakovic have been quite good in limited minutes (and Jack has been terrible - with a WP48 of -0.159 in 70 min - over in New Orleans). But it's too early to fully evaluate stats just yet, so no one jump on me just yet. Bayless still can't shoot, but so far he's been getting to the line like crazy.
  • Bargnani still "leads" the league with -1.5 wins, and his closest competitor is Knicks centre Tomofey Mozgov at -0.9 wins. Barring injury, I think Bargs is a lock to win the fewest wins produced this year.
  • Bargnani is shooting less accurately, but a decrease in FGA and an increase in FTA has helped to offset that. Overall, he is playing slightly better than he was last time.
  • Kleiza has gotten a little bit better across the board, and it's showing in his numbers. Mind you, he's still been terrible so far this year, but he's improving.
  • Sonny Weems has gotten quite a bit worse. His FGA have stayed about the same, but his FTA have decreased and his PPS and AdjFG% have dropped quite a bit (from 1.11 to 0.98 and 55.7% to 49.1%, respectively).


And how was Bargnavans doing?



Pretty well, actually. With Evans out, who will the Raptors pair up with Bargnani, and will they make up for his flaws? Only time will tell; tune in next week to find out!

Or, you know, watch the games. But if you come here, you won't even have to!

 - Devin

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Potential Raptor trade?

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


According to ESPN, the Raptors and Hornets have agreed to a five player swap. Leaving Toronto are Jarrett Jack, David Andersen, and Marcus Banks. Arriving are Peja Stojakovic and Jerryd Bayless.

Now, this is merely a reported deal - nothing has been finalized. I'll provide my intial reactions now, and if the deal changes between now and when it becomes finalized, I'll change my analysis accordingly.


This trade would accomplish two major things for the Raptors: first of all, it clears salary. Peja has one year remaining on his contract, which is somewhere north of $14.25 million. The second thing it does is create a roster space, which the Raptors will presumably use to obtain a centre (hopefully Erick Dampier), given that there is only one "centre" on the roster at the moment (because Andersen will be traded away and Solomon Alabi has been assigned to the D-League). It also nets the Raps a young, cheap player in Jerryd Bayless.

But I'm not really impressed with this deal. If the Raptors are interested in shedding salary, Jack, Andersen, and Banks are not the best players to get rid of. Banks's deal is expiring at the end of this season, so including him doesn't really accomplish anything. Jack's deal is very reasonable - $4.86 million this season, $5.22 million next season, and $5.58 million the season after that - given that he produced 6.9 wins last year (second most on the team behind Chris Bosh). Even though he's been injured, he hasn't been playing as well this season - which isn't entirely surprising (last year was a career year for Jack). But even if Jack goes back to being as productive as he was in 2008-09, he'd still be worth the money. Andersen didn't play well at all during his rookie season last year, but through preseason and the season so far he's been far more productive than Andrea Bargnani, who the Raptors are paying $50 million over the next five years. Andersen is getting $2.5 million this year, with a team option for $2.7 million next year, which is relatively cheap. No, if the Raptors were interested in shedding salary, they would've been better to trade away Bargnani, Calderon, or Barbosa.

And what about the players they will be getting back, Jerryd Bayless and the corpse formerly known as Peja? These days, the only thing attractive about Peja as a player is the fact that his massive contract is expiring at the end of the season. The last time Peja produced at an above average level (WP48 of 0.100 or above) was the 2007-08 season, when he had a WP48 of 0.102 and 5.8 wins in 2711 minutes. In 2006-07, his WP48 was negative, and in 2005-06, his WP48 was 0.148. So really, we're not talking about someone who should be expected to make any sort of difference on the court...although, after 76 minutes this season, his WP48 is 0.184 :)

The allure of Jerryd Bayless is probably what sold this deal for the Raptors. Bayless is a young player who was taken by Indiana with the 11th pick of the 2008 draft, and then, along with Ike Diogu, traded to the Trailblazers for Josh McRoberts, Brandon Rush, and...Jarrett Jack. That's good, right? The Raptors are stockpiling cheap young players like I suggested! Well yes, except that, when you go after cheap young players, you are still supposed to go after good cheap young players. In his rookie season, Bayless had a WP48 of  -0.099. In his second season, Bayless posted a WP48 of 0.025. This year, his WP48 is only -0.149 after 133 minutes of playing time. So, in 1959 career minutes, he has produced -1.1 wins with a WP48 of -0.027.

Jerryd Bayless can't be included in a multi-player deal because he was just traded to the Hornets; the two teams will actually have to make two separate trades in order for this transaction to adhere to league rules. To top it all off, rumour has it that the Raptors might even be using part of the Chris Bosh trade exception in this deal. If so, that just makes it that much worse. I'm sure the Raptors could've done better than this trade. Even if this trade opens up a roster spot for Erick Dampier and they pair Stojakovic's expiring deal with the Bosh trade exception to land a big-name player, they could've done better than this.


For the Hornets, this deal was a no-brainer. They get a very useful player in Jack, an okay (for now) backup big man (with what amounts to an expiring deal) in Andersen, and an expiring contract in Banks. All they had to do was give up Peja's contract and Bayless?!?!?!? This trade makes them even better in the short term, and doesn't have much of an impact on the books (short term or long term). The only negative thing about it is that perhaps they could have nabbed a big-name player with Peja's contract, but that's only a hypothetical.


If this trade becomes official, I'll put up a new post with lots of fancy tables and the final analysis. Stay tuned.

 - Devin

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #4 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)


For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.


After reviews #1, #2, and #3, here are how the preseason numbers ended up:



I've added some fancy colours to the per 48 minute columns - but please note that the colours are based on totals only and are not adjusted by position. For example: Bargnani doesn't fare so poorly in rebounding when compared to the team as a whole (he's yellow), but compare him to other centres and he'd be terrible (red). Anyways, how are the stats different from the last time we checked in?



Here are my thoughts about the last two games, as well as the preseason as a whole:
  • Raptors' preseason MVP: Jarrett Jack. Runners-up: Dorsey, Kleiza, and Evans
  • Raptors' preseason LVP: Andrea Bustiani. Runners-up: Calderon and DeRozan
  • Of the players who played significant minutes, Kleiza and Johnson lowered their EWP48s (read: got worse) the most over the last two games
  • Barbosa and Evans raised their EWP48s (read: improved) the most over the last two games
  • Calderon, Banks, Alabi, and Bargnani ended up producing a negative number of wins
  • Calderon watch: his best game of the preseason was against the Knicks (EWP48 0.397 and EWP 0.132)
  • Calderon only did one thing well: rack up assists. But his shooting was terrible
  • For another guy who's supposed to be good at shooting...Bargnani didn't shoot well at all
  • Bargnani moved "up" to 11th least productive in the league during the preseason on a per-minute basis (according to Arturo). In terms of total wins produced, Bargani is 4th last, behind Marcus Thornton (2nd year player), Sharron Collins (rookie), and Kenny Hasbrouck (rookie). So...is Bargnani a bust yet?
  • Bargnani's only game in the black this preseason was the second game against the Suns - every other game he was negative
  • Bargnani accumulated a Win Score of exactly 0 in 216 minutes
  • I'd prefer David Andersen to Bargnani - even excluding Bargnani's massive contract. Andersen was better in every area, except blocks and fouls
  • Not news: Reggie Evans rebounds like a madman
  • News: Joey Dorsey out-rebounded the madman
  • Julian Wright was pretty good in limited minutes. He benefited from playing most of his time at SF
  • Going by these numbers, the team's bigs are probably going to have foul trouble most games. Maybe it's time to acquire a decent centre?

There are other stories in those numbers, but those were the ones that spoke to me the most. If you spot any other interesting tales, let me (and others) know in the comments.

 - Devin

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Arturo's preseason WP for all players

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)



I've been posting preseason EWP - that's Estimated Wins Produced - numbers for Raptors players in my Preseason Reviews, but today Arturo Galletti posted WP - the real Wins Produced - numbers for every player in the league as of 10/19!

Please note that there are differences between the numbers I've posted and Arturo's numbers - there are two reasons for this. One, EWP is exactly what it claims to be: an estimate. EWP uses Win Score to estimate WP numbers. And two, Arturo uses simple positions in his calculations. That means that players who play multiple positions are assigned to one position only, which makes the calculations slightly inaccurate. But Arturo didn't have the time to adjust hundreds of players' positions! So both numbers - his and mine - are slightly off. But his are certainly more accurate for players who have only played one position all preseason long.

I'd like to point out a few observations from Arturo's league-wide WP numbers:
  • Blake Griffin is destroying the league - making it even more obvious that Bargnani is a bust
  • Kleiza (9th), Jack (11th), and Johnson (24th) are in the top 25 for players who have played at least 60 minutes
  • Dorsey (6th) and Wright (13th) are in the top 15 for players who haven't played at least 60 minutes
  • Bargnani is 12th among players who have played at least 60 minutes....12th last, that is. Hey, at least he's better than unproductive ex-Raptor Jason Kapono.

Go check out the list, and while you're there, take a look at all the other stuff Arturo has on his great site.


 - Devin



Monday, October 18, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #3 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)



Here are what the team numbers look like after six (of eight) preseason games:



And here is how the numbers have changed since the last review:



Here are my thoughts about the last two games (against familiar opponents):
  • We're still seeing a lot of regression to the norm, particularly for players who haven't played many minutes (Alabi, Wright, Banks, Dorsey, and Dupree)
  • Kleiza, Jack, and Dorsey continue to produce at excellent levels, and in fact improved upon their already excellent per-minute production
  • Evans and Johnson have gotten themselves out of the holes they dug in the first four games. Both are now approaching their expected WP48s for the coming season
  • Barbosa, Weems, and DeRozan have all seen a decline in production, mostly due to poor shooting from the field
  • Playing against the Suns for the second time, Bargnani had his first positive contribution: EWP48 0.258 and EWP 0.134
  • Unfortunately, even including that game, Bargnani has almost caused one whole loss (EWP -0.919) in only six games (yikes)
  • Calderon watch - he had his best game of the preseason against the Suns: EWP48 0.276 and EWP 0.121
  • Calderon continues to slowly improve his per-minute production, but is still a negative contributor at the moment
  • Jack and Kleiza have produced more than one win apiece. Together these two players have been responsible for about 69% of the team's wins.
  • Amir Johnson had a huge game against the Suns: EWP48 0.781 and EWP 0.407
  • David Andersen is a rich man's Andrea Bargnani - he shoots better and rebounds better
  • The Suns have been out-rebounded by the Raptors twice; with Amaré gone, their lack of a quality big man is apparent
  • Last review I forgot to mention Jrue Holiday's huge game against the Raptors: a triple-double, EWP48 0.612 and EWP 0.587. Too bad for him he only got help from Evan Turner and Jodie Meeks

Final observation for this installment: the Raptors EWP totals add up to 3.13 wins, and after six games their record is 3 wins and 3 losses. Who knew that Wins Produced was so good at explaining player productivity in NBA games?

 - Devin


Friday, October 15, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #2 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses) 

Here are the Raptors' numbers after four (of eight) preseason games:



As you can see, there have been a few changes in the team rankings. How have things changed?



Looking at the numbers, here are my thoughts:

  • Notice the general trend of players with larger EWP48s becoming less productive, and the players with highly negative WP48s becoming more productive? That's regression to the mean. The players at the top were performing abnormally well, and the players at the bottom were performing abnormally poorly; it was only a matter of time before things normalized
  • Productive players who played poorly over the last two games: Weems, DeRozan, Kleiza, and Dorsey
  • Productive players who have stayed productive: Jack
  • Unproductive players who continued to play poorly: Bargnani and Calderon
  • Unproductive players who were productive: Evans, Dupree, Barbosa, Wright
  • Jack had a huge game against the 76ers: EWP48 0.824, EWP 0.566
  • Jack had a terrible game against the Bulls: EWP -0.359, EWP -0.195
  • Kleiza had a terrible game against the 76ers: EWP -0.345, EWP -0.129
  • Bargnani's best game so far: v. Bulls,  EWP -0.074, EWP -0.040
  • Calderon's best game so far: v. Bulls,  EWP 0.001, EWP 0.000
  • The last two games have been a better indication of how things are going to go during the regular season, because the Bulls will be a good team and the 76ers are going to be bad

Nothing is too far out of the ordinary for the Raptors so far, apart from the play of Jose Calderon. If he plays like this during the regular season, the Raptors are going to struggle to break 20 wins.

That's right - 20.

 - Devin

Monday, October 11, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #1 (of 4)

This article may use several advanced stats. All of these are based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.


* Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)


After two preseason games (or 25% of the preseason...season), the Raptors stats look this:


If you're too lazy to look at the spreadsheet, here are the players in order of most productive (by EWP48) to least productive:
  1. Linas Kleiza, EWP48 0.725 (0.649 EWP)
  2. Joey Dorsey, EWP48 0.656 (0.369 EWP)
  3. Solomon Alabi, EWP48 0.651 (0.109 EWP)
  4. Jarrett Jack, EWP48 0.406 (0.372 EWP)
  5. Sonny Weems, EWP48 0.136 (0.125 EWP)
  6. Amir Johnson, EWP48 0.107 (0.067 EWP)
  7. DeMar DeRozan, EWP48 0.095 (0.099 EWP)
  8. Marcus Banks, EWP48 0.025 (0.006 EWP)
  9. Leandro Barbosa, EWP48 -0.040 (-0.031 EWP)
  10. Julian Wright, EWP48 -0.056 (-0.016 EWP)
  11. Jose Calderon, EWP48 -0.110 (-0.089 EWP)
  12. David Andersen, EWP48 -0.111 (-0.088 EWP)
  13. Ronald Dupree, EWP48 -0.142 (-0.032 EWP)
  14. Reggie Evans, EWP48 -0.175 (-0.128 EWP)
  15. Andrea Bargnani, EWP48 -0.585 (-0.609 EWP)

Here are my thoughts about the team's performance so far:
  • Is anyone surprised that Bargnani is, once again, the least productive player on the team? Whether you're ranking using rates or totals, he's at the very bottom and is a huge detriment to the Raptors. Now that he's playing as a centre full-time, he's hurting the team even more than he did in the past.
  • By the same token, is anyone surprised that the two most productive players on a per-minute basis on the team have been Kleiza and Dorsey? In terms of totals, is anyone surprised that the three most productive have been Kleiza, Jack, and Dorsey?
  • What is surprising is Alabi's play; granted, it is only two (preseason!) games, but for a below-average guy coming out of college he's done extremely well.
  • DeRozan also performed better than expected - although only nearly average.
  • Calderon and Evans have played very poorly.
  • Interesting fact: the top five players, in order, play the following positions: SF, PF, C, PG, SG. 
  • How about that Phoenix game? The score was 129-78 for the Raptors, Kleiza and Dorsey were near EWP48s of 1.000, and Kleiza almost won the game by himself (0.481 EWP).
- Devin.


Stats used

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

2009-10 Player Review: Jarrett Jack

For this 2009-10 player review, let's take a look at the player who is likely to be the Raptors starting PG going forward, Jarrett Jack:













While Jack has a history of solid production, last year was definitely a career year for him. Up until this past season, Jack had only had one above-average year (although admittedly he was very close in 2007-08). This means that, although his 5 year average WP48 and total WP48 look just about average, they have been skewed somewhat by last year's very good production. Going forward, it is possible that last year was somewhat of an outlier and that his WP48 will be closer to average (0.100) next year, but I'm going to be optimistic and hope that Jack has actually improved; I have projected a WP48 of 0.140 for Jack next year.

Here are Jack's specfic statistics from the past two seasons:














Looking at these two seasons side by side, at first glance it's rather remarkable that Jack's 09-10 season was more than twice as productive as his 08-09 season, given how similar most of the numbers were. Last season he saw small declines in rebounds, steals, net possessions, and blocks, and small increases in TOs and PFs (which decrease productivity), but greatly improved his shooting efficiency and assists. As long as Jack is able to maintain these increases (or to make up for any decreases by improving in other areas), Jack will be as productive next season.

 - Devin.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Projections for the 2010-11 NBA season

Without further ado, here are my projections for next season:
The projected WP numbers are based on a very complicated formula....Well, actually, I averaged each player's yearly WP for the last 5 seasons, calculated their total WP over the last 5 seasons, and then used that data to come up with my own educated...projections. Guess wouldn't be an appropriate word in this context, because WP tends to be relatively stable over time, but yes, my projections include a tiny bit of "guessing".

The projected minutes is where it gets interesting. The Raptors aren't exactly renowned for their player usage, and they have several players who are interchangeable. My projected starters are in bold in the chart above. Note that I project Andrea Bargnani to be the starting centre - not Amir Johnson. Calderon and Jack split the PG minutes, but either could be designated as the starter.

There is also the matter of the rookies. How well and how many minutes will they play? Based on his college performance, I've projected Ed Davis to be an average NBA player in his first year. Based on the playing time the Raptors gave DeMar DeRozan last year, I'm predicting that Davis should see around 1600 minutes of playing time. Solomon Alabi does not project to have a good season, and I doubt that he will see much court time this year.

So, without Bosh (and Turkoglu), the Raptors project to win around 35-36 games. If rookie Ed Davis has a good season and/or the Raptors pick up a few "lucky" wins, they might actually sneak into the playoffs as an 7th or 8th seed.

In the coming days I will start posting my individual player "reviews" for the upcoming season, where I will discuss each player in greater detail.

 - Devin.