New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.
Now that the season is official over for the Raptors, it's a good time to review how the season went.
Team Overview:
Team Record: 22-60 (28th)
Eastern Conference Standing: 14th
Team Wins Produced: 23.3 (27th)
Point Differential: -6.28 (27th)
Even the brief numbers aren't pretty; in a little bit I'll take a deeper look at the team numbers, but for now let's just take a quick look. The Raptors finished with the 3rd-worst record in the league (2nd-worst in the East), behind only Cleveland and Minnesota. In terms of Wins Produced and point differential - both better indicators of team quality than Win-Loss record - the Raps finished with the 4th-worst numbers in the league.
Certainly not very happy numbers. And actually, even worse than the paltry amount of wins I predicted that the team would end up with (which was 28 wins). What happened to the Raptors this season? Well, it would make sense if I compared what I thought would happen against what actually happened.
Basketball analysis focusing on Canada's lone NBA team
Showing posts with label awards. Show all posts
Showing posts with label awards. Show all posts
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Thursday, March 24, 2011
No, no, no: DeMar DeRozan is not the MIP
New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.
During the Raptors’ blowout loss at the hands of the Nuggets, I listened in disbelief as the commentators - Matt Devlin and Jack Armstrong - made the case that DeMar DeRozan should be in the running for the Most Improved Player (MIP) award. Now, I’ve already written about this in the past, but the fact that this idea is still out there means that I need to keep addressing this topic.
The argument for DeRozan as the MIP
During the game, the stat used to back up this argument was...drumroll...PPG increase from last season. Here were the names that they included on the graphic that popped up onto the screen:
During the Raptors’ blowout loss at the hands of the Nuggets, I listened in disbelief as the commentators - Matt Devlin and Jack Armstrong - made the case that DeMar DeRozan should be in the running for the Most Improved Player (MIP) award. Now, I’ve already written about this in the past, but the fact that this idea is still out there means that I need to keep addressing this topic.
The argument for DeRozan as the MIP
During the game, the stat used to back up this argument was...drumroll...PPG increase from last season. Here were the names that they included on the graphic that popped up onto the screen:
Friday, February 4, 2011
Rookie Challenge Rosters
New readers, please check out the basics before you leave any comments.
On Tuesday the lineups for the All-Star Rookie Challenge game were released. Andres of Nerd Numbers already wrote a post about which team he thinks will win, but I want to look at those names a different way. According to ESPN, the rookie roster is as follows:
On Tuesday the lineups for the All-Star Rookie Challenge game were released. Andres of Nerd Numbers already wrote a post about which team he thinks will win, but I want to look at those names a different way. According to ESPN, the rookie roster is as follows:
- Blake Griffin
- Landry Fields
- John Wall
- DeMarcus Cousins
- Greg Monroe
- Derek Favors
- Gary Neal
- Wesley Johnson
- Eric Bledsoe
It's a pretty decent team; as Dre notes, it's good enough to be favoured over the sophomore team. But I wonder - are there some rookies who got snubbed? Check out this table (full version here):
Thursday, December 16, 2010
More all-star ballot fun
New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.
A while back I posted who I thought should be on this year's all-star ballot. Recently Ian Levy has written a post about the East's all-star ballot - who is on the list, who should be on the list, but isn't, and who shouldn't be on the list, but is - and several Raptors feature prominently.
Go check it out!
- Devin.
A while back I posted who I thought should be on this year's all-star ballot. Recently Ian Levy has written a post about the East's all-star ballot - who is on the list, who should be on the list, but isn't, and who shouldn't be on the list, but is - and several Raptors feature prominently.
Go check it out!
- Devin.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Bargnani is playing better this season...right?
New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments on this post.
Ah, another Barngani post. Whenever I feel like this site hasn't been getting much traffic lately, I know I can always count on a good ol' Bargnani post to bolster the numbers.
Last time I pointed out that not only should Bargnani not be considered an all-star this season, but that he shouldn't even be on the all-star ballot. Predictably, there were several negative and insulting comments left on that post, but thankfully, there were also some thoughtful comments, including this one by Eugene:
First let's look at Bargnani's numbers for the season. In the following table I've compared the stats of each of Bargnani's seasons, his career stats, and his career stats before this season, to the average numbers posted by the average centre and the average power forward (and no, we are not getting into another debate about which position Bargnani plays; he is clearly a PF who spends at least some time playing C). In addition to the things I normally look at, I've also included PER (which I do not endorse, because it rewards players for taking addtional shots, even when those shots miss), Win Shares per 48 (which I do not endorse, although it is much better than PER), and PPG. Here's the table:
What do the numbers say? Of the three comprehensive stats - WP48, WS/48, and PER, all of them say that Bargnani is less productive this season as compared to last season. Let me repeat: all three say that Bargnani is playing worse this season.
So what's changed? While he must be congratulated for getting to the line more often this year (2.5 more FTA per 48 minutes over last year - quite an achievement), making a higher percentage of his free-throws, and incrementally increasing his assists and steals (which remain close to his career averages and continue to be below average), his shooting efficiency has taken a dive, his turnovers have nearly doubled, and his already paltry rebounding numbers have fallen. His usually decent block numbers have decreased quite a bit, and his fouls - while still better than average - have increased.
Hmmm...am I forgetting to mention something? Oh yes: PTS, and PPG. Both have increased substantially. Unfortunately, given that Bargnani's shooting efficiency has decreased this year, he requires more shot attempts to get those points, and each missed shot hurts the team. Sure, he's making more shots and scoring more points, but all those additional missed shots fall into the hands of the opposing teams, which use the extra possessions to score more of their own points. Right now, Bargnani's shooting efficiency is just barely above the average numbers for power forwards and centres, and coming from a guy for whom shooting is supposed to be a strength, that's not a good sign.
Bargnani is a "scorer" who doesn't score very efficiently, one who also falls short in almost every other area of the game. Although his rebounding is particularly poor this year, he has always been a poor rebounder. Rather than hypothesizing that Evans (and Bosh before him) are "stealing his rebounds", perhaps the simpler explanation - that Bargnani simply can't or won't rebound - is the best one? After he's had a few more games without Evans, I'll take a look at his rebounds before and after Evans went down with injury, and I suspect that there will be little difference between the numbers.
After all, with Evans out, all that means is that someone else will be "stealing" rebounds away from him, right? Eventually, one must accept that Bargnani is simply a terrible, terrible rebounder.
Finally, let me address the following anonymous comment:
It has been shown that, time and time again, fans, coaches, and most members of the media use scoring to determine awards - no question about that. We also know that certain big-name players - Jordan (Wizards-era), Shaq (post Lakers), Vince Carter (most of the time), Yao Ming (while injured), and others - get voted in all the time, even when they don't deserve it. We also always hear arguments about how "entertaining", "exciting", and "fun" some players are to watch, and how that makes them qualify for the all-star game. Here's a shocking idea: how about the most productive players in the league make the all-star game?
Furthermore, do we really need to create all-star ballots in the first place? How many people actually fill out the physical ballots at arenas? I'm certain that most of the balloting happens online. Why not open up the online ballot to every single player in the league, removing the need to write players in? When using an online ballot, it's not like the NBA has to worry about printing costs and must keep the list of players short.
The team stats for week six will be up in a couple of days - I'm having computer problems at the moment. Also in store over the next little bit is the Raptors' all-time wins produced leaders, analysis that will be Powered by Nerd Numbers.
- Devin
Ah, another Barngani post. Whenever I feel like this site hasn't been getting much traffic lately, I know I can always count on a good ol' Bargnani post to bolster the numbers.
Last time I pointed out that not only should Bargnani not be considered an all-star this season, but that he shouldn't even be on the all-star ballot. Predictably, there were several negative and insulting comments left on that post, but thankfully, there were also some thoughtful comments, including this one by Eugene:
The more I look at bargnani's play this year and look at the relevant stats, the more I have come to a conclusion that is opposite to what has been generally suggested on this blog. That is to say: it is not the case that wp48 numbers show that, contrary to naive opinion, bargnani is an astonishingly bad NBA player. Rather, the fact that bargnani is a reasonably decent NBA player shows that there is something very seriously wrong with wins produced.
This is especially made clear when you look at the raptors front court tandem from earlier in the year. Bargs and Evans played a lot of minutes together, and according to wp48 bargs was mind-shatteringly awful while, simultaneously, evnas was the 4th best player in the NBA. What this demonstrates to me is that wp48 does a very bad job of allocating credit for wins. If you average their wp48 numbers, the average value makes sense, but wp48 gives Evans an unreasonable amount of credit and bargnani an unfair share of blame.Eugene: that was a constructive comment - thanks for leaving it. But it's a common criticsm that us WP writers hear all the time; Arturo of Arturo's Silly Stats has written a bunch of stuff on it lately. Rather than examine WP methodology - I'll leave that Arturo - let's take a look at Bargnani's year-by-year numbers. If the numbers show that Bargnani has significantly improved his playing this year, that might be an indication that WP may have flaws. And if the numbers show that Bargnani has become more productive with Evans out, that might also be a sign that WP is flawed.
First let's look at Bargnani's numbers for the season. In the following table I've compared the stats of each of Bargnani's seasons, his career stats, and his career stats before this season, to the average numbers posted by the average centre and the average power forward (and no, we are not getting into another debate about which position Bargnani plays; he is clearly a PF who spends at least some time playing C). In addition to the things I normally look at, I've also included PER (which I do not endorse, because it rewards players for taking addtional shots, even when those shots miss), Win Shares per 48 (which I do not endorse, although it is much better than PER), and PPG. Here's the table:
What do the numbers say? Of the three comprehensive stats - WP48, WS/48, and PER, all of them say that Bargnani is less productive this season as compared to last season. Let me repeat: all three say that Bargnani is playing worse this season.
So what's changed? While he must be congratulated for getting to the line more often this year (2.5 more FTA per 48 minutes over last year - quite an achievement), making a higher percentage of his free-throws, and incrementally increasing his assists and steals (which remain close to his career averages and continue to be below average), his shooting efficiency has taken a dive, his turnovers have nearly doubled, and his already paltry rebounding numbers have fallen. His usually decent block numbers have decreased quite a bit, and his fouls - while still better than average - have increased.
Hmmm...am I forgetting to mention something? Oh yes: PTS, and PPG. Both have increased substantially. Unfortunately, given that Bargnani's shooting efficiency has decreased this year, he requires more shot attempts to get those points, and each missed shot hurts the team. Sure, he's making more shots and scoring more points, but all those additional missed shots fall into the hands of the opposing teams, which use the extra possessions to score more of their own points. Right now, Bargnani's shooting efficiency is just barely above the average numbers for power forwards and centres, and coming from a guy for whom shooting is supposed to be a strength, that's not a good sign.
Bargnani is a "scorer" who doesn't score very efficiently, one who also falls short in almost every other area of the game. Although his rebounding is particularly poor this year, he has always been a poor rebounder. Rather than hypothesizing that Evans (and Bosh before him) are "stealing his rebounds", perhaps the simpler explanation - that Bargnani simply can't or won't rebound - is the best one? After he's had a few more games without Evans, I'll take a look at his rebounds before and after Evans went down with injury, and I suspect that there will be little difference between the numbers.
After all, with Evans out, all that means is that someone else will be "stealing" rebounds away from him, right? Eventually, one must accept that Bargnani is simply a terrible, terrible rebounder.
Finally, let me address the following anonymous comment:
Wins Produced and defensive capabilities have absolutely nothing to do with making the all-star games. The majority of fans will never vote based on that, and I guarantee Coaches don't break down WP numbers to make decisions in their voting.
It all comes down to who they 'feel' deserves it (although from my experience name recognition tends to be paramount). While more hardcore fans will base decisions on advanced numbers, don't expect an all-star game, that is for fun and completely irrelevant, to be based on that.
If he does make the all-star game (and I'm not saying he will) it will be completely based on his scoring.
I'm also going to laugh my ass off if shaq gets voted to the all-star game by either the fans or coaches.While it is true that the majority of fans do not take defensive capabilities (and certainly WP) into account when they are filling out their all-star ballots, that doesn't make it right. I think it would be better if fans learned to recognize more productive players and rewarded them accordingly. Of course, certain defensive players - like four-time all-star Ben Wallace - do manage to make get fan recognition, so the argument that fans completely ignore defensive is not quite accurate.
It has been shown that, time and time again, fans, coaches, and most members of the media use scoring to determine awards - no question about that. We also know that certain big-name players - Jordan (Wizards-era), Shaq (post Lakers), Vince Carter (most of the time), Yao Ming (while injured), and others - get voted in all the time, even when they don't deserve it. We also always hear arguments about how "entertaining", "exciting", and "fun" some players are to watch, and how that makes them qualify for the all-star game. Here's a shocking idea: how about the most productive players in the league make the all-star game?
Furthermore, do we really need to create all-star ballots in the first place? How many people actually fill out the physical ballots at arenas? I'm certain that most of the balloting happens online. Why not open up the online ballot to every single player in the league, removing the need to write players in? When using an online ballot, it's not like the NBA has to worry about printing costs and must keep the list of players short.
The team stats for week six will be up in a couple of days - I'm having computer problems at the moment. Also in store over the next little bit is the Raptors' all-time wins produced leaders, analysis that will be Powered by Nerd Numbers.
- Devin
Thursday, November 18, 2010
2010-11 All-Star Ballot
New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.
It's mid-November, so you know what that means! That's right, the ballot for this year's all-star game is up and running. Now, I know what you're thinking: isn't it a little bit too early to tell which players will end up having a good (half)season? Of course it is. But the ballot-organizers get together and select the players who are going to be on the list before the season even starts. They are also somewhat restrained by trying to pick at least three players - one guard, one forward, and one centre - from each team, while limiting the totals to 48 guards, 48 forwards, and 24 centres (divide those numbers in half for the conference numbers).
But these are members of the press who select the ballots - not Statistical Experts (TM) like us Wages of Wins Network analysts (I get to use that title because my season predictions are currently beating John Hollinger of ESPN). How would I have selected the 2010-11 All-Star ballot, and how does it compare to the real one? Here is the real ballot:
Based on last year's total wins, here are the funny picks:
And here is what my ballot would look like:
Basically, all I did was take the top players (in terms of total wins produced) and slot them in - with one exception: I added Blake Griffin in with the West forwards. I also did a few tricky things with positions in order to make the All-Star ballot as stacked as possible, and fans of the Clippers, Sixers, Pacers, and Wizards will be sad to know that their favourite teams failed to reach the desired three players. If the league got mad at me for that and I had to include at least three players from each team, I'd exchange the following players:
How do the lists compare? Here is the difference between the two lists at the team level:
Pretty interesting that, despite several changes at the player level, things remain relatively similar at the team level. This is probably because the members of the press take into consideration (both consciously and unconsciously) how successful teams are when they choose who gets on the ballot.
Just thought I'd post on this topic while it's current. Updated team stats (and maybe more about top three picks...if I can stomach it) coming in the next few days.
- Devin
It's mid-November, so you know what that means! That's right, the ballot for this year's all-star game is up and running. Now, I know what you're thinking: isn't it a little bit too early to tell which players will end up having a good (half)season? Of course it is. But the ballot-organizers get together and select the players who are going to be on the list before the season even starts. They are also somewhat restrained by trying to pick at least three players - one guard, one forward, and one centre - from each team, while limiting the totals to 48 guards, 48 forwards, and 24 centres (divide those numbers in half for the conference numbers).
But these are members of the press who select the ballots - not Statistical Experts (TM) like us Wages of Wins Network analysts (I get to use that title because my season predictions are currently beating John Hollinger of ESPN). How would I have selected the 2010-11 All-Star ballot, and how does it compare to the real one? Here is the real ballot:
Based on last year's total wins, here are the funny picks:
- Mario Chalmers, Heat
- DeMar DeRozan, Raptors
- Boris Diaw, Bobcats
- Rashard Lewis, Magic
- Linas Kleiza, Raptors
- Elton Brand, Sixers
- Thaddeus Young, Sixers
- Shaquille O'Neal, Celtics
- Roy Hibbert, Pacers
- Andrea Bargnani, Raptors
- Eric Gordon, Clippers
- Derek Fisher, Lakers
- Aaron Brooks, Rockets
- Tony Parker, Spurs
- Corey Brewer, Timberwolves
- Monta Ellis, Warriors
- Jeff Green, Thunder
- Michael Beasley, Timberwolves
- Chris Kaman, Clippers
- Mehmet Okur, Jazz
And here is what my ballot would look like:
Basically, all I did was take the top players (in terms of total wins produced) and slot them in - with one exception: I added Blake Griffin in with the West forwards. I also did a few tricky things with positions in order to make the All-Star ballot as stacked as possible, and fans of the Clippers, Sixers, Pacers, and Wizards will be sad to know that their favourite teams failed to reach the desired three players. If the league got mad at me for that and I had to include at least three players from each team, I'd exchange the following players:
- Marcin Gortat of the Magic for Andray Blatche of the Wizards
- C.J. Watson of the Bulls for Gilbert Arenas of the Wizards
- Anthony Parker of the Cavs for Evan Turner of the Sixers
- Terrence Williams of the Nets for Brandon Rush of the Pacers
- Erick Dampier of the TBDs for DeAndre Jordan of the Clippers
How do the lists compare? Here is the difference between the two lists at the team level:
Pretty interesting that, despite several changes at the player level, things remain relatively similar at the team level. This is probably because the members of the press take into consideration (both consciously and unconsciously) how successful teams are when they choose who gets on the ballot.
Just thought I'd post on this topic while it's current. Updated team stats (and maybe more about top three picks...if I can stomach it) coming in the next few days.
- Devin
Saturday, October 23, 2010
2010-2011 Season Predictions
Rob O'Malley of Roblog decided that the writers of the Wages of Wins network should all participate in a contest to see who is the best at predicting the outcome of the 2010-2011 NBA season. Andres took the ball and created a web page that will keep everyone's predictions in a public place. Here are my picks (unless rosters change significantly in the next couple of days):
Eastern Conference:
Many of the other Wages of Wins Network writers have already mentioned how good the Bulls, the Nets, and the Cavs are likely to be, so these teams didn't surprise me (but might surprise casual fans).
If the seeding ends up like this, we'll get to see a Heat-Cavs matchup in the first round (fun!), as the Cavs would make the 8th seed despite being under .500.
Western Conference:
Surprise teams? Portland, Golden State, and the Kings are going to be good, but a lot of other WoWN writers have already pointed them out. To me, the Spurs remaining so good was news, as was the crapitude of the Grizzlies. With Krstic and Green hurting their team, I don't see the Thunder doing as well as last year.
Some fun playoff matchups in the West would be: a Portland-Suns rematch, a "youth" vs "experience" matchup in Spurs-Thunder, and a hopefully interesting renewal of the Mavs-Warriors rivalry. Interesting that of the 15 Western Conference teams, I have 12 finishing above .500. This year (barring injuries and trades...which, come on, almost never happen) there will be a logjam in the West.
NBA Playoffs:
Media Awards:
MVP:
Rookie of the Year:
Defensive Player of the Year:
6th Man Award:
Most Improved Player:
Coach of the Year:
Executive of the Year:
Wins Produced Awards:
MVP:
Rookie of the Year:
Sixth Man Award:
Most Improved Player:
At the end of the regular season, I'll be able to look back and see what I missed (which I'm sure will be plenty). Regardless of how I fare, one thing's for sure: my predictions are going to be a lot better than my ESPN fantasy team (never miss the start of a draft, because the computer will pick for you; I'm stuck with Kobe, Carmelo, Aaron Brooks, Joe Johnson, and Danny Granger in a Win Score league).
- Devin.
Eastern Conference:
- Miami Heat (68-14)
- Chicago Bulls (56-26)
- Orlando Magic (54-28)
- Boston Celtics (53-29)
- Atlanta Hawks (46-36)
- Milwaukee Bucks (44-30)
- New Jersey Nets (43-39)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (39-43)
- New York Knicks (38-44)
- Charlotte Bobcats (33-49)
- Detroit Pistons (29-53)
- Toronto Raptors (27-55)
- Indiana Pacers (27-55)
- Philadelphia 76ers (19-63)
- Washington Wizards (10-72)
Many of the other Wages of Wins Network writers have already mentioned how good the Bulls, the Nets, and the Cavs are likely to be, so these teams didn't surprise me (but might surprise casual fans).
If the seeding ends up like this, we'll get to see a Heat-Cavs matchup in the first round (fun!), as the Cavs would make the 8th seed despite being under .500.
Western Conference:
- Portland Trailblazers (62-20)
- San Antonio Spurs (59-23)
- Los Angeles Lakers (56-26)
- Golden State Warriors (48-34)
- Dallas Mavericks (47-35)
- Denver Nuggets (45-37)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (44-38)
- Phoenix Suns (44-38)
- Sacramento Kings (43-39)
- New Orleans Hornets (43-39)
- Houston Rockets (42-40)
- Utah Jazz (42-40)
- Memphis Grizzlies (29-53)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (26-56)
- Los Angeles Clippers (22-60)
Surprise teams? Portland, Golden State, and the Kings are going to be good, but a lot of other WoWN writers have already pointed them out. To me, the Spurs remaining so good was news, as was the crapitude of the Grizzlies. With Krstic and Green hurting their team, I don't see the Thunder doing as well as last year.
Some fun playoff matchups in the West would be: a Portland-Suns rematch, a "youth" vs "experience" matchup in Spurs-Thunder, and a hopefully interesting renewal of the Mavs-Warriors rivalry. Interesting that of the 15 Western Conference teams, I have 12 finishing above .500. This year (barring injuries and trades...which, come on, almost never happen) there will be a logjam in the West.
NBA Playoffs:
- Eastern Conference Finalists: Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls
- Western Conference Finalists: Portland Trailblazers, Los Angeles Lakers
- NBA Champions: Miami Heat
Media Awards:
MVP:
- Kevin Durant
- Dwight Howard
- Lebron James
Rookie of the Year:
- Blake Griffin
- DeMarcus Cousins
- John Wall
Defensive Player of the Year:
- Dwight Howard
- Rajon Rondo
- Thabo Sefolosha
6th Man Award:
- Udonis Haslem
- Reggie Williams
- Matt Barnes
Most Improved Player:
- Kevin Love
- DeJuan Blair
- Stephen Curry
Coach of the Year:
- Tom Thibideau (Bulls)
- Keith Smart (Warriors)
- Paul Westphal (Kings)
Executive of the Year:
- Pat Riley (Miami)
- Larry Riley (Golden State)
- Billy King (New Jersey)
Wins Produced Awards:
MVP:
- Lebron James
- Dwight Howard
- Kevin Durant
Rookie of the Year:
- Blake Griffin
- DeMarcus Cousins
- Ed Davis
Sixth Man Award:
- Lamar Odom
- Chris Andersen
- DeJuan Blair
Most Improved Player:
- Kevin Love
- DeJuan Blair
- Chris Paul
At the end of the regular season, I'll be able to look back and see what I missed (which I'm sure will be plenty). Regardless of how I fare, one thing's for sure: my predictions are going to be a lot better than my ESPN fantasy team (never miss the start of a draft, because the computer will pick for you; I'm stuck with Kobe, Carmelo, Aaron Brooks, Joe Johnson, and Danny Granger in a Win Score league).
- Devin.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)