Potential Raptor trade?

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According to ESPN, the Raptors and Hornets have agreed to a five player swap. Leaving Toronto are Jarrett Jack, David Andersen, and Marcus Banks. Arriving are Peja Stojakovic and Jerryd Bayless.

Now, this is merely a reported deal - nothing has been finalized. I'll provide my intial reactions now, and if the deal changes between now and when it becomes finalized, I'll change my analysis accordingly.


This trade would accomplish two major things for the Raptors: first of all, it clears salary. Peja has one year remaining on his contract, which is somewhere north of $14.25 million. The second thing it does is create a roster space, which the Raptors will presumably use to obtain a centre (hopefully Erick Dampier), given that there is only one "centre" on the roster at the moment (because Andersen will be traded away and Solomon Alabi has been assigned to the D-League). It also nets the Raps a young, cheap player in Jerryd Bayless.

But I'm not really impressed with this deal. If the Raptors are interested in shedding salary, Jack, Andersen, and Banks are not the best players to get rid of. Banks's deal is expiring at the end of this season, so including him doesn't really accomplish anything. Jack's deal is very reasonable - $4.86 million this season, $5.22 million next season, and $5.58 million the season after that - given that he produced 6.9 wins last year (second most on the team behind Chris Bosh). Even though he's been injured, he hasn't been playing as well this season - which isn't entirely surprising (last year was a career year for Jack). But even if Jack goes back to being as productive as he was in 2008-09, he'd still be worth the money. Andersen didn't play well at all during his rookie season last year, but through preseason and the season so far he's been far more productive than Andrea Bargnani, who the Raptors are paying $50 million over the next five years. Andersen is getting $2.5 million this year, with a team option for $2.7 million next year, which is relatively cheap. No, if the Raptors were interested in shedding salary, they would've been better to trade away Bargnani, Calderon, or Barbosa.

And what about the players they will be getting back, Jerryd Bayless and the corpse formerly known as Peja? These days, the only thing attractive about Peja as a player is the fact that his massive contract is expiring at the end of the season. The last time Peja produced at an above average level (WP48 of 0.100 or above) was the 2007-08 season, when he had a WP48 of 0.102 and 5.8 wins in 2711 minutes. In 2006-07, his WP48 was negative, and in 2005-06, his WP48 was 0.148. So really, we're not talking about someone who should be expected to make any sort of difference on the court...although, after 76 minutes this season, his WP48 is 0.184 :)

The allure of Jerryd Bayless is probably what sold this deal for the Raptors. Bayless is a young player who was taken by Indiana with the 11th pick of the 2008 draft, and then, along with Ike Diogu, traded to the Trailblazers for Josh McRoberts, Brandon Rush, and...Jarrett Jack. That's good, right? The Raptors are stockpiling cheap young players like I suggested! Well yes, except that, when you go after cheap young players, you are still supposed to go after good cheap young players. In his rookie season, Bayless had a WP48 of  -0.099. In his second season, Bayless posted a WP48 of 0.025. This year, his WP48 is only -0.149 after 133 minutes of playing time. So, in 1959 career minutes, he has produced -1.1 wins with a WP48 of -0.027.

Jerryd Bayless can't be included in a multi-player deal because he was just traded to the Hornets; the two teams will actually have to make two separate trades in order for this transaction to adhere to league rules. To top it all off, rumour has it that the Raptors might even be using part of the Chris Bosh trade exception in this deal. If so, that just makes it that much worse. I'm sure the Raptors could've done better than this trade. Even if this trade opens up a roster spot for Erick Dampier and they pair Stojakovic's expiring deal with the Bosh trade exception to land a big-name player, they could've done better than this.


For the Hornets, this deal was a no-brainer. They get a very useful player in Jack, an okay (for now) backup big man (with what amounts to an expiring deal) in Andersen, and an expiring contract in Banks. All they had to do was give up Peja's contract and Bayless?!?!?!? This trade makes them even better in the short term, and doesn't have much of an impact on the books (short term or long term). The only negative thing about it is that perhaps they could have nabbed a big-name player with Peja's contract, but that's only a hypothetical.


If this trade becomes official, I'll put up a new post with lots of fancy tables and the final analysis. Stay tuned.

 - Devin

Raptors Preseason Review #4 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)

For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.


After reviews #1, #2, and #3, here are how the preseason numbers ended up:



I've added some fancy colours to the per 48 minute columns - but please note that the colours are based on totals only and are not adjusted by position. For example: Bargnani doesn't fare so poorly in rebounding when compared to the team as a whole (he's yellow), but compare him to other centres and he'd be terrible (red). Anyways, how are the stats different from the last time we checked in?



Here are my thoughts about the last two games, as well as the preseason as a whole:

• Raptors' preseason MVP: Jarrett Jack. Runners-up: Dorsey, Kleiza, and Evans
• Raptors' preseason LVP: Andrea Bustiani. Runners-up: Calderon and DeRozan
• Of the players who played significant minutes, Kleiza and Johnson lowered their EWP48s (read: got worse) the most over the last two games
• Barbosa and Evans raised their EWP48s (read: improved) the most over the last two games
• Calderon, Banks, Alabi, and Bargnani ended up producing a negative number of wins
• Calderon watch: his best game of the preseason was against the Knicks (EWP48 0.397 and EWP 0.132)
• Calderon only did one thing well: rack up assists. But his shooting was terrible
• For another guy who's supposed to be good at shooting...Bargnani didn't shoot well at all
• Bargnani moved "up" to 11th least productive in the league during the preseason on a per-minute basis (according to Arturo). In terms of total wins produced, Bargani is 4th last, behind Marcus Thornton (2nd year player), Sharron Collins (rookie), and Kenny Hasbrouck (rookie). So...is Bargnani a bust yet?
• Bargnani's only game in the black this preseason was the second game against the Suns - every other game he was negative
• Bargnani accumulated a Win Score of exactly 0 in 216 minutes
• I'd prefer David Andersen to Bargnani - even excluding Bargnani's massive contract. Andersen was better in every area, except blocks and fouls
• Not news: Reggie Evans rebounds like a madman
• News: Joey Dorsey out-rebounded the madman
• Julian Wright was pretty good in limited minutes. He benefited from playing most of his time at SF
• Going by these numbers, the team's bigs are probably going to have foul trouble most games. Maybe it's time to acquire a decent centre?

There are other stories in those numbers, but those were the ones that spoke to me the most. If you spot any other interesting tales, let me (and others) know in the comments.

 - Devin

• All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
• Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
• The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
• Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.

Raptors Preseason Review #3 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)


Here are what the team numbers look like after six (of eight) preseason games:



And here is how the numbers have changed since the last review:



Here are my thoughts about the last two games (against familiar opponents):

• We're still seeing a lot of regression to the norm, particularly for players who haven't played many minutes (Alabi, Wright, Banks, Dorsey, and Dupree)
• Kleiza, Jack, and Dorsey continue to produce at excellent levels, and in fact improved upon their already excellent per-minute production
• Evans and Johnson have gotten themselves out of the holes they dug in the first four games. Both are now approaching their expected WP48s for the coming season
• Barbosa, Weems, and DeRozan have all seen a decline in production, mostly due to poor shooting from the field
• Playing against the Suns for the second time, Bargnani had his first positive contribution: EWP48 0.258 and EWP 0.134
• Unfortunately, even including that game, Bargnani has almost caused one whole loss (EWP -0.919) in only six games (yikes)
• Calderon watch - he had his best game of the preseason against the Suns: EWP48 0.276 and EWP 0.121
• Calderon continues to slowly improve his per-minute production, but is still a negative contributor at the moment
• Jack and Kleiza have produced more than one win apiece. Together these two players have been responsible for about 69% of the team's wins.
• Amir Johnson had a huge game against the Suns: EWP48 0.781 and EWP 0.407
• David Andersen is a rich man's Andrea Bargnani - he shoots better and rebounds better
• The Suns have been out-rebounded by the Raptors twice; with Amaré gone, their lack of a quality big man is apparent
• Last review I forgot to mention Jrue Holiday's huge game against the Raptors: a triple-double, EWP48 0.612 and EWP 0.587. Too bad for him he only got help from Evan Turner and Jodie Meeks

Final observation for this installment: the Raptors EWP totals add up to 3.13 wins, and after six games their record is 3 wins and 3 losses. Who knew that Wins Produced was so good at explaining player productivity in NBA games?

 - Devin

• All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
• Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
• The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
• Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.

2009-10 Player Review: David Andersen

We've only got a few more player reviews left to do - and they're reviews of bench players who aren't likely to play very many minutes or contribute many wins next season. Up this time is David Andersen:

As you can see above, Andersen wasn't very successful in his one year stint with the Rockets, who wisely shipped him out to the Raptors for cash considerations and a future second round pick (the Rockets nailed Arturo's management principles on that one!). Why was Andersen so unproductive last year?

One big problem: he couldn't shoot. He was okay shooting at the rim (53.3%) and on 3s (AdjFG% 51.9%) but not so good anywhere else (41.8% <10ft, 46.4% 10-15ft, and 43.0% 16-23ft). The deep twos in particular are what hurt his shooting percentage the most. Even though his shot attempts and points scored were above average, those numbers were achieved inefficiently and so actually ended up hurting more than helping. His rebounding was below average, although not excessively so; same with his net possessions and fouls. His assists were actually above average and his blocks were pretty bad for a centre. Really, it would be better if Andersen played more power forward than centre (although he still wouldn't be all that productive), but with the Raptors desperate for size this year it's likely he'll be stuck at centre.

Tune in next post for a review of everyone's favourite ball-hog, Reggie Evans!

 - Devin.