To say that last year was not a good year for the Brazilian would be an understatement; he went from a nice WP48 of 0.130 in 2008-2009 to a WP48 of -0.032 and only managed to play a career-low 44 games (and a career low 786 minutes played). Moreover, he continued his trend of alternating between good and bad years. Let's take a look at what changed over the past three seasons:
Barbosa gets most of his productivity from his scoring. It's not surprising, then, that when his shooting efficiency nosedived last year his productivity nosedived as well. His FG attempts were actually up, but his AdjFG% and FT attempts were down. Most of his other productivity mesasures were down and below-average (as they usually are for Barbosa).
Why did Barbosa's shooting efficiency suddenly drop off a cliff? Perhaps the answer lies in his shot selection:
|Data provided by HoopData|
Looking at these numbers, I notice a couple of things:
- Barbosa's percentages are down at every location on the court
- The percentage of his close-range shots (rim and <10ft) that were assisted last year increased
- The percentage of his mid-range and long-range shots (shots >10ft) that were assisted last year decreased
What's the outlook for this year? I've projected him to have a WP48 of 0.080, but if he has recovered from his injuries and maintains his pattern of alternating between bad and good seasons, he could improve on that mark. Then again, if he really has forgotten how to shoot, he could be significantly under that mark. Regardless, if he plays around 2000 minutes on the season, he will likely produce around 3 wins.