Monday, October 11, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #1 (of 4)

This article may use several advanced stats. All of these are based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

* Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)

After two preseason games (or 25% of the preseason...season), the Raptors stats look this:

If you're too lazy to look at the spreadsheet, here are the players in order of most productive (by EWP48) to least productive:
  1. Linas Kleiza, EWP48 0.725 (0.649 EWP)
  2. Joey Dorsey, EWP48 0.656 (0.369 EWP)
  3. Solomon Alabi, EWP48 0.651 (0.109 EWP)
  4. Jarrett Jack, EWP48 0.406 (0.372 EWP)
  5. Sonny Weems, EWP48 0.136 (0.125 EWP)
  6. Amir Johnson, EWP48 0.107 (0.067 EWP)
  7. DeMar DeRozan, EWP48 0.095 (0.099 EWP)
  8. Marcus Banks, EWP48 0.025 (0.006 EWP)
  9. Leandro Barbosa, EWP48 -0.040 (-0.031 EWP)
  10. Julian Wright, EWP48 -0.056 (-0.016 EWP)
  11. Jose Calderon, EWP48 -0.110 (-0.089 EWP)
  12. David Andersen, EWP48 -0.111 (-0.088 EWP)
  13. Ronald Dupree, EWP48 -0.142 (-0.032 EWP)
  14. Reggie Evans, EWP48 -0.175 (-0.128 EWP)
  15. Andrea Bargnani, EWP48 -0.585 (-0.609 EWP)

Here are my thoughts about the team's performance so far:
  • Is anyone surprised that Bargnani is, once again, the least productive player on the team? Whether you're ranking using rates or totals, he's at the very bottom and is a huge detriment to the Raptors. Now that he's playing as a centre full-time, he's hurting the team even more than he did in the past.
  • By the same token, is anyone surprised that the two most productive players on a per-minute basis on the team have been Kleiza and Dorsey? In terms of totals, is anyone surprised that the three most productive have been Kleiza, Jack, and Dorsey?
  • What is surprising is Alabi's play; granted, it is only two (preseason!) games, but for a below-average guy coming out of college he's done extremely well.
  • DeRozan also performed better than expected - although only nearly average.
  • Calderon and Evans have played very poorly.
  • Interesting fact: the top five players, in order, play the following positions: SF, PF, C, PG, SG. 
  • How about that Phoenix game? The score was 129-78 for the Raptors, Kleiza and Dorsey were near EWP48s of 1.000, and Kleiza almost won the game by himself (0.481 EWP).
- Devin.

Stats used


  1. I think Colangelo understands that this is a rebuilding year but he needs to keep Bargs as the 'face' of the franchise.

    I think Colangelo knows at this time that Bargnani sucks.

  2. I'm not so sure that BC knows that Bargnani sucks, because if he did, he would've tried to trade him by now (and he definitely didn't know that Bargnani sucked when he signed him to that huge extension). But all doubt about Bargnani's production will be gone after this season.

    As for the face of the franchise...really? A large number of fans know that he is not productive. The team is not winning. Surely a more successful team would end up with a new face or two and win more games? Everything I know tells me that fan support increases as wins increase - so it's time to cut bait on Bargnani.