Saturday, May 14, 2011

2010-11 Raptor Charts Part II

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.

Yesterday I posted part one, which included both team and individual charts showing the game-by-game distribution of both field goal attempts and scoring efficiency (as determined by the formula PTS-FGA-0.5*FTA). Today I'll be posting the part two, which does the same for Net Possessions and "Helpers".

A player's Net Possesions is determined by the formula REB+STL-TO. This formula rewards those who gain possessions for their teams, and punishes those who give the ball away. Who do we think is going to show up first using this method?

It's not who you think it is! Ed Davis and Amir Johnson led the team, but given the fact that Reggie Evans only played in 30 games, I think it's safe to say that he was the best on the team at gaining possessions. Andrea Bargnani's poor rebounding really shows here. Remember, none of these numbers are adjusted for position, so even though he played fewer games, Bargnani should be gaining quite a few more possessions than the team's starting shooting guard. An important thing to notice is that the sum of the player totals only add up to 72% of the team totals; this is because there are rebounds and turnovers assigned at the team level that are not credited to individual players (they show up in the box scores as "team rebounds" or "team turnovers").

Speaking of individual players, here are the individual charts:

Here are the interesting things that I take from these:
  • As mentioned previously, Bargnani rebounds like DeMar DeRozan, who doesn't even rebound well for shooting guard. Accordingly, both players have similar possession breakdowns: Bargnani had 8% of his games fall into the -5 to -1 range; DeRozan had 9%. Bargnani had 61% of his games fall into the 0-4 range; DeRozan had 67%. Bargnani had 26% of his games fall into the 5-9 range; DeRozan had 22%. Bargnani had 6% of his games fall into the 10-14 range; DeRozan had 2%.
  • Jerryd Bayless, Leandro Barbosa, and Sonny Weems had the largest percentage of games in the negative range, with 23%, 19%, and 19%, respectively.
  • Jose Calderon, Amir Johnson, Ed Davis, Reggie Evans, and Joey Dorsey did not have a single game where their Net Possessions were in the negative range. While that's not so impressive coming from the forwards, I am impressed that Calderon - the team's point guard and number one ball-handler - managed to pull it off.
  • Reggie Evans had 21 games - 70% of his season - at 10 or more Net Possessions. To put that in perspective, Ed Davis was second on the team in this regard, and he only managed 15 games - 23% of his season - at 10 or more Net Possessions.

Onto the "Helpers", then. Along with shooting efficiency and Net Possessions, Helpers are a component of Win Score. Basically Helpers are the leftover stats that aren't captured in shooting and possessions; Helpers are determined by the formula AST*0.5+BLK*0.5-PF*0.5. The lowest possible score is -3, due to the fact that (unless you play for Don Nelson) a player is limited to 6 fouls each game. Given that formula, it's a no-brainer as to who led the team this year:

Not surprisingly, it's Calderon who led the team. But what is surprising is the extent of his contribution - Calderon produced 139% of the team totals. Yes, that's right: the rest of the team actually contributed negative Helpers. What do the individual tables look like?

Here are the other interesting things I notice:
  • Calderon only had one game with a negative score.
  • Due to his tendency to foul, Amir Johnson has the worst totals on the team.
  • Bargnani is somehow the only PF or C on the team with positive totals.
  • Julian Wright and James Johnson - who had similar total minutes played - both scored 16.5. As I keep pointing out, these two players are very similar to each other. Across all these different measurements, the only area where these two players were significantly different was in FGA (Johnson took more, of course).

Well, that's it for this year's Raptor distribution charts. On Monday I'll be posting a draft analysis of every player in the 2011 NBA Draft (including some players who decided not to declare). At some point, I also have to post the final team stats and team opponent stats as well, so look for those to show up in the near future.

 - Devin

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