Sunday, October 24, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #4 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)

For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.

After reviews #1, #2, and #3, here are how the preseason numbers ended up:

I've added some fancy colours to the per 48 minute columns - but please note that the colours are based on totals only and are not adjusted by position. For example: Bargnani doesn't fare so poorly in rebounding when compared to the team as a whole (he's yellow), but compare him to other centres and he'd be terrible (red). Anyways, how are the stats different from the last time we checked in?

Here are my thoughts about the last two games, as well as the preseason as a whole:
  • Raptors' preseason MVP: Jarrett Jack. Runners-up: Dorsey, Kleiza, and Evans
  • Raptors' preseason LVP: Andrea Bustiani. Runners-up: Calderon and DeRozan
  • Of the players who played significant minutes, Kleiza and Johnson lowered their EWP48s (read: got worse) the most over the last two games
  • Barbosa and Evans raised their EWP48s (read: improved) the most over the last two games
  • Calderon, Banks, Alabi, and Bargnani ended up producing a negative number of wins
  • Calderon watch: his best game of the preseason was against the Knicks (EWP48 0.397 and EWP 0.132)
  • Calderon only did one thing well: rack up assists. But his shooting was terrible
  • For another guy who's supposed to be good at shooting...Bargnani didn't shoot well at all
  • Bargnani moved "up" to 11th least productive in the league during the preseason on a per-minute basis (according to Arturo). In terms of total wins produced, Bargani is 4th last, behind Marcus Thornton (2nd year player), Sharron Collins (rookie), and Kenny Hasbrouck (rookie). Bargnani a bust yet?
  • Bargnani's only game in the black this preseason was the second game against the Suns - every other game he was negative
  • Bargnani accumulated a Win Score of exactly 0 in 216 minutes
  • I'd prefer David Andersen to Bargnani - even excluding Bargnani's massive contract. Andersen was better in every area, except blocks and fouls
  • Not news: Reggie Evans rebounds like a madman
  • News: Joey Dorsey out-rebounded the madman
  • Julian Wright was pretty good in limited minutes. He benefited from playing most of his time at SF
  • Going by these numbers, the team's bigs are probably going to have foul trouble most games. Maybe it's time to acquire a decent centre?

There are other stories in those numbers, but those were the ones that spoke to me the most. If you spot any other interesting tales, let me (and others) know in the comments.

 - Devin


  1. If bargnani shoots a 38% AFG, it will be a catastrophe for him and the Raptors. However, the odds of that are extremely, extremely slim. So there's no special reason to freak out about him.

  2. Well...the odds of him shooting so poorly are pretty low, but regardless of his good shooting percentages, Bargnani is always a catastrophe for the Raptors.

    So yes, no special reason to freak out about him, just the regular reason.