Let's revisit my first post on the Wages of Wins Journal. Many people complained that I hadn't noticed that certain players (such as Turkoglu and Johnson) were automatically assigned to incorrect positions. Well, let's see what happens when we adjust the positions manually, shall we? The first table below is WP as calculated automatically by Andres Alvarez's automatic system:
This second table is what happens when we correctly adjust positions:
As you can see, there isn't much difference between the two. Adjusting Hedo Turkoglu, Amir Johnson, and Reggie Evans doesn't really change the team outlook very much. The Raptors go from a projected total of 36.26 wins to 36.76. And I don't want to hear from anyone that "Chris Bosh isn't a centre", because last year, he was indeed the Raptors' centre.
Now I will admit that, when writing certain parts of my review, I was not paying attention to the correct table. While my overall projection for the coming season is the same, certain of my specific comments relating to certain players need to be adjusted. Hedo Turkoglu, or Turkish Delight, wasn't as bad as I had mentioned. Last year, Turkoglu actually had a WP of 0.088 and produced around 4 wins (instead of a WP of 0.022 and around 1 win). Amir Johnson wasn't as good as I had mentioned; he actually had a WP of 0.181 and produced around 5.5 wins (instead of a WP of 0.252 and around 7.5 wins). Reggie Evans goes from 1.3 wins to around 0.84, which really isn't much of a difference at all.
With that in mind, in a subsequent post I will rewrite my thoughts for the coming season. Now that I'm on my own blog I have to abililty to break my thoughts into more than one post, and I plan to use that to my advantage. I'm also going to be posting individual reviews for each player on the roster for the coming season, as well as covering any more roster changes that may happen between now and the start of the season.
I'll see how this goes, and if all goes well I'll be posting frequently during the season. Hopefully someone will find at least some of this analysis interesting.
- Devin.
Yeah, the amount of wins wouldn't have changed at all (as those related to the efficiency of the team), but the credit certainly has.
ReplyDeleteDevin,
ReplyDeleteJust for the record, I made a comment about position adjustments over at Wages of Wins. I wasn't complaining at all. I was simply observing that I ran into the same issue when evaluating the Pistons with players like Rodney Stuckey, Ben Gordon, Jonas Jerebko, and Jason Maxiel. The algorithm doesn't always get positions right.
Please don't take my words as anything more than what they are, namely, empathetic comments from a brother in arms.
brgulker,
ReplyDeleteI certainly did not have you in mind when I was responding to "complaining", but thank you for making your good intentions known.
And an interesting thought about Hedo Turkoglu...he will probably be asked to play a lot of PF in Phoenix (at least, that's what I've been hearing so far). If that's true, his production next year will probably end up being similar to the automated numbers above.
OMG come on man! THINK
ReplyDeleteOf course the numbers for the team wouldn't have changed. You're switching around positional minutes in a zero sum way within the team.
I don't think you understand how this even works and should probably just give up statistical blogging.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWhich, of course, I know.
ReplyDeleteThe whole point was that my projections for next season included the adjusted positions and so my forcast of around 35 wins would remain unchanged.
But thanks for that.