Thursday, January 13, 2011

Week 11 Auto WP Numbers

New readers, check out the basics before leaving any comments.

Okay, so I'm late again this week - at least I can blame this one on not having a computer (the name of the company that is responsible for this travesty rhymes with bell). Here are the numbers (full spreadsheet here), which are Powered by (the new-look) Nerdnumbers:

Here are my thoughts:
  • Calderon continues to play well (when he plays).
  • Amir Johnson maintained his previous rate of production over his last five games.
  • Joey Dorsey's production is still declining slightly, mostly due to his increased foul rate. And have I ever mentioned his terrible free-throw shooting? He really is the perfect replacement for Reggie Evans.
  • Bayless has remained largely unchanged, although his FT rate is down more than half an attempt per 48 minutes.
  • Ed Davis' production also declined slightly - his shooting is better, but his rebounding is down from 14.2 to 12.6 and his fouls are up (5.4 to 6.1). Luckily his blocks are up as well (1.8 to 2.5).
  • Julian Wright continues to improve and has nearly matched the production of an average player. His AdjFG% is finally above 50% and his net possessions have increased by 0.7 per 48 minutes.
  • Barbosa has once again left the red with improvements across the board (shooting, net possessions, and assists, blocks, and fouls). How long will he stay there? Your guess is as good as mine.
  • Kleiza's production declined again, but at least he isn't hurting the team - he has a WP48 of 0.000. That is, if we believe that he spends approximately half his time at SG, which he doesn't, so his real numbers are somewhat worse.
  • For all the recent talk that DeMar DeRozan has improved during his second year, his WP48 continues to remain in the negative range this season (at least last year he posted a WP48 of 0.026). But do you want to take a stab at what has increased for DeRozan this season? PPG and his scoring rate, of course. Even though his shooting percentages are down. When will people learn? DeRozan is Bargnani all over again.
  • Meanwhile, Bargnani is getting...better? His AdjFG% and FT% are up and blocks and fouls have improved. While I'm happy at the reversal, it's likely only temporary; given that shooting percentages fluctuate over the course of the season, real improvement from Bargnani will have to come from the non-shooting aspects of the game (ie: rebounding).
  • The team's most productive players right now, by position: Calderon, Bayless, Wright, Johnson, and Dorsey, with Davis as the 6th man.

 - Devin


  1. This is Peter from Nerd Numbers (my real name is Vince).

    The Raptors strike me as a team that runs the gamut between really good starters (Calderon, Evans when he played) and really bad. I still hold out hope for DeRozan. If Eric Gordon can play at an above average level this year, I say it's worth a shot.

    By the way, would it be considered lowbrow to squeeze in pension jokes at every comment? I'm looking for a job, and the best I'll likely get retirement-wise is a 401(k).

  2. Vince,

    The Raptors have some good players, but they also have a lot of bad players. I'm afraid DeRozan has the Yay! Points! virus, so I don't expect him to amount to much

    I don't quite understand the pension comment, but feel free to make all the jokes you want.

    Now I'm going to be all confused about your name. Why would you make a username out of a common first name that isn't your own? You sly fox, you.

  3. DDignam,

    The logic behind the pension jokes is (preaching to the choir alert) that the Raptors are owned by Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, which also owns...some hockey team, I don't know, and the majority owner of Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment is the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan. I got the idea from seeing an SB Nation blog called Pension Plan Puppets which NHL team.

    Oh, and the reason I made a username out a common first name that is not my own - is because Peter is my middle name. Trust me, I used to be classmates with a Robert who went by Jesse and a Barbara who went by Marlee, so I know.

    I don't care which you use.

  4. Vince/Peter:

    Ah, now I see where you were going with that one. Yes, Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment owns and runs the Raptors, the Maple Leafs (NHL), Toronto FC (MLS), and the Marlies (AHL), and it also owns the Air Canada Centre, which is where the Raptors and Leafs play their games. The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan owns a majority stake in MLSE...too bad I'm not a member of the Ontario Teachers' Federation.

    Re: your name - I should've considered the possibility that Peter was a middle name. People who go by their middle names are common enough.

  5. Didn't mean to take you to school (cue drums).

    In a nutshell, the joke is that, here in the U.S., the 401(k) requires employees to contribute to the plan, which saves employers money. If you're financially prudent, don't worry about not joining the OTF.

    And just imagine how scary it would be if they actually bought the Blue Jays from Rogers.

  6. Nope - still don't get the joke. It's okay; I'm a poor young person who doesn't know much about finance beyond TFSAs, GICs, and mutual funds.

    Rogers has the "Rogers Centre" (aka Skydome) too. MLSE are also missing the Rock (Lacrosse). They just need a few more pieces to complete their collection....

  7. The 401(k) is more of a U.S. thing, anyway, so don't worry too much about it. Just know that when I'm paying for the retirement as compared to my company, it costs me more.

    Heck, forget buying the team, just imagine if they had control of the stadium. They'd have a lot of leverage in keeping the team in Toronto.

    At that rate, it's either watching the Argonauts or hoping that the Buffalo Bills come to town - if the NFL's new CBA (kind of like a financial rulebook) keeps the own-no-other teams rule, then the OTPP would be locked out for good. They'd never give up the Leafs like that.

  8. Oops! Forgot the Argos. Can you tell that I just loooooove football?

    You think the Jays might leave? I doubt it. They've won the World Series twice. Sure, the Sonics moved to OKC, but the NBA is very vicious like that.

    The NFL CBA has a no-owning-other-teams rule?! That's crazy. I don't see an NFL team coming to Toronto on a permanent basis, though. Football isn't that big in Canada.

  9. Both, although CFL is probably slightly more popular.

  10. Notice that I did not say "world football".

  11. Hmmm? No type of football - NFL, CFL, or the roundball variety - is very popular in Canada. Soccer is a very popular rec sport for kids, but that hasn't translated to viewership.

  12. So they don't give a flying waffle about it?

    Hint: Leafs joke.

  13. Waffles because you eat waffles with maple syrup, which come from maple trees?

    I'm good.

  14. ...or having bad memories of Toronto's present.

    Besides, the name supposedly comes either from the Maple Leaf Regiment which fought in the Great War or the East Toronto Maple Leafs. If they were named after a leaf, which is a common noun, why wouldn't they call it the Toronto Maple Leaves?