Thursday, December 9, 2010

Week 6 Auto WP Numbers

New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.

Ahhhh, I now (temporarily) have my own computer to work on for the next couple of weeks, and because of that, I can now post the Week 6 numbers. These stats are up-to-date as of 12/08, with the exception of the WP numbers, which are an additional day behind. So here are the numbers, which are - as is always the case - Powered by Nerd Numbers (full spreadsheet here):

Here are my thoughts:
  • Bargnani had finally had a good game against the Knicks, but it won't be enough to offset his previous two bad games, let alone his whole season to date (and remember, the WP numbers are a game behind right now). I'm not the only one who has noticed Bargs' lack of productivity, by the way. If he played every game as well as that one, I'd be his biggest fan! But it's far, far more likely that he'll continue to play poorly.
  • Bayless really seems to have decided to play better ever since I proclaimed that Jarrett Jack's current season would be better than Bayless would ever be. I sure hope he keeps proving me wrong! He's almost been playing at a superstar level ever since he came to the Raptors...and he has been out-rebounding the team's starting centre.
  • Ed Davis has been quite good during his first few games as an NBA player - something that I (and others) expected - although he's been even better than we thought. In fact, he's already sixth on the team in wins, despite only having played 88 minutes so far.
  • As good as Davis has been playing, Joey Dorsey has been better. Dorsey is pretty similar to Reggie Evans - as I and others have noted in the past - so why not give Dorsey some more minutes?
  • All of the Raptors' bigs - with the exception of Bargnani - have been quite productive. Maybe the team would have more success if Bargnani played fewer minutes and took fewer shots? The team isn't exactly tearing it up...why not give it a try?
  • The other four horsemen - Barbosa, Kleiza, and DeRozan - have continued to be unproductive. I'd like like to nominate Sonny Weems as a new addition to the group, as his shot-happy ways have lowered his productivity. What new term should we use for this group of five players? The Five Tenors? The Final Five? Nothing really works quite as well as what David Berri came up with...I guess that's why he makes the big bucks.
  • I'm glad Calderon is back to his old self - let's hope he keeps playing well.
  • Still waiting for the Raps to make an additional roster move - Stojakovic has missed a bunch of games and the team needs some more useful guard/forwards. There is also still an open roster spot, and with Dampier landing (and - strangely - not playing very much) in Miami, I really have no idea what's going on on that front.

Team stats update coming soon!

 - Devin


  1. Your own figures point out a major flaw in the whole ratings system.
    "All of the Raptors' bigs - with the exception of Bargnani - have been quite productive. Maybe the team would have more success if Bargnani played fewer minutes and took fewer shots? The team isn't exactly tearing it up...why not give it a try? "
    Don't you find it wrong that the players Bargnani shares the floor with the majority of their minutes with rate high(this goes back to Bosh also)yet Bargnani bottoms out?
    You don't see some inbalance there? System might not be able to rate certain players. Is it not possible, through some flaw in the ratings system, that teamates who see the floor with Andrea gain points while all of the deductions are placed on Bargnani? How can Reggie, prior to injury,with he's lack of offense, be one of the highest rated, yet his playing partner, Bargnani be one of the lowest? Simple - there is a flaw in the system.

  2. Flat out wrong. The numbers reflect the actions on the court, as recorded by box-score statistics. According to the box-score statistics - the only widely available figures anyone can analyze - Bargnani has been offering less than every other big. Let's say that you don't "believe" in wins produced. Fine; simply look at the box-score statistics. They tell the exact same story. Players who play most of their minutes with Bargnani look better, and players who play most of their minutes without Bargnani look better. Bosh still looks better now that he's playing on a different team. Bargnani has never done well by anyone's metrics. Occam's razor suggests that my hypoethesis (Bargnani simply isn't productive) is more likely to be true than your answer (the box-score stats, WP, WS, and PER are all wrong).

    The "Reggie has no offense" myth has been tackled before on Basketball-Reference's blog, and probably elsewhere. Basically, if someone is wide open under the hoop, you have to cover the guy, even if he can't shoot jumpers.

  3. Your system rates him a centre and he has not been asked to play the traditional role.
    The system is flawed.

  4. The "system" can move him over to a power forward position, and that would make him slightly less unproductive...but he is currently the Raptors' centre, no matter how much you deny it. He's a defensive 5 and an offensive 4. No one else on the team can play centre while he's on the court.

  5. Liking the posts Devin. Keep up the good work!

    I was thinking today, the Raps bigs are strong (minus the obvious). What about throwing out deals for an overpaid wing man, but at least producing average (or slightly below average) WP48 with high shot volume. I am thinking like a Joe Johnson or OJ Mayo or Rudy Gay etc.

    The reasoning is, I don't know if our bigs can keep up the WP48 with an increased shot volume, as most of them don't have a dynamic enough offensive game.


  6. "The System" in the System is Yahoo Sports. Not to insult ourselves but I think Yahoo is a bit more reputable than Devin and myself. Also lists Bargs as a Center. I mean I love sports debate and attacking Devin sure seems like the right path (sarcasm, you rock assistant GM Devin) but if the stats you're gonna pick are the generic ones blanketed by the mainstream the way to fix that may not be to attack the niche blogs. Just sayin'

  7. Evan S: Thanks for the compliments - it's always nice, especially given the amount of insults I get on a regular basis.

    Bargnani needs to be traded, especially while his value is high. Pair him with DeRozan and/or Weems, Barbosa, or Kleiza, and my target would be a "traditional" big man. Gortat might be available, and Andris Biedrins and Samuel Dalembert would be nice if they are available. I wouldn't dare touch Joe Johnson's contract - never, never, never. Gay has been surprisingly good - and he's young - so I'd think about it, but he's probably so highly valued by the Grizz that I wouldn't do it. Mayo hasn't been very productive - can you believe that the Timberwolves traded him, Antoine Walker, Marko Jaric, and Greg Buckner to Memphis for Kevin Love, Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Jason Collins? Talk about a one-sided deal.

    I'd try to spread the FGA around the remaining/new players, rather than target anyone specifically based on their big FGA rates. Obviously you can't replace Bargnani with someone who shoots like Reggie Evans, but, as last year's Rockets showed us, you don't really have to go out looking for a high-volume shooter.

  8. Andres:

    Attacking me might not be (hell, I'll go out on a limb and say "isn't) the right path, but it certainly seems to be the path most taken. But I'd certainly say that Yahoo Sports is more reputable than me!

    People really have this problem understanding that WP explains a team's productivity, but not necessarily "ability". I loved Gabe's comment over on Arturo's "response":

    "I think I’m a pretty good basketball player. If I play at my local park or YMCA, with an average group of teammates and opponents, I’m probably the equivalent of a .150 to .200 player. Now let’s say instead of regular teammates I was playing alongside four NBA players, but the other team was still just regular guys off the street. My team would win, probably 21-0. And I most likely would not have scored a single point or recorded a single rebound."

    He goes on from there - it's great.