New readers, please check out the basics before you leave any comments.
I haven't been around very much over these holidays - I'll have the Week 9 numbers up tomorrow (hopefully) - but today I have a year-end type of post ready: the All-Raptor teams.
Basically, my All-Raptor teams are just like the yearly All-NBA teams; there is an All-Raptor First team, a Second team, and a Third team. The only difference between the All-Raptor teams and the All-NBA teams is that, whereas the All-NBA teams are a yearly affair, my All-Raptor teams are of the all-time variety. I've already (thanks to Andres) used Wins Produced to determine the top Raptors of all-time, so all that remains is to use positions to slot everyone into three teams. Every player must have spent some time at a given position to be eligible for said position, and both absolute production and rate of production have been taken into account. Here is the list, with brief explanations to follow:
1st Team:
C - Chris Bosh
Bosh is the franchise leader in several categories, including minutes, blocks, rebounds, points, and wins. Given the paucity of great Raptors' centres - and the fact that Bosh spent some time at the position - Bosh is the best option here.
PF - Donyell Marshall
According to my informal research, Donyell Marshall is the most under-appreciated Raptor of all-time. In terms of both raw productivity and WP48, Marshall is the most productive player to ever don a Raptors uniform; despite this, few fans seem to recall how good he was (as evidenced by the results of my various unscientific Sporcle quizzes). An easy choice.
SF - Tracy McGrady
T-Mac is an interesting case; while he was an efficient player, he didn't play in Toronto for very long, and he actually got better when he left. In fact, once McGrady left for Orlando, he put up some of the very best seasons of the last 20 years. Still, he was very good in Toronto, and his main competition at SF is Jamario Moon. Moon's raw productivity was actually better, but Moon spent a bunch of time playing PF, and T-Mac played more minutes and created more wins. Really, it's a toss-up between Moon and McGrady, but given their ages and subsequent seasons, I'm going with T-Mac.
SG - Vince Carter
Arguably the most famous Raptor ever, Carter actually struggled to best Doug Christie and barely made it onto the first team. While Christie had a better WP48, Carter had both a very slight edge in raw productivity as well as a huge edge in minutes played. Then there is the matter that the tail-end of his numbers with the Raptors are somewhat tainted by his intentional poor play - a fact that could either help or hurt his cause, depending on your viewpoint. Everything considered, I'm going with Vince.
PG - Jose Calderon
With the second most wins produced of any Raptor and the franchise leader in assists (and still adding to his totals), Calderon is hands down the best point guard the Raps have ever had.
2nd Team
C - Antonio Davis
Davis too was more of a power forward than a centre, but spent most of his time as a Raptor in the centre position. Although he was not an above-average player for most of his career, he was quite serviceable and - for a Raptor - relatively long-serving.
PF - Jerome Williams
The Junk Yard Dog is the second best Raptor power forward of all-time. Unfortunately for him, JYD played the same position as Marshall, so unless I engage in some suspect position arrangements (like putting Marshall at SF) he's stuck on the second team.
SF - Jamario Moon
Although he entered the league as an undrafted 27 year-old, Moon played quite well for the Raptors across three seasons. Although best known for his Super Jamario dunks, he was also good at rebounding, blocking shots and avoiding turnovers. Another unappreciated Raptor.
SG - Doug Christie
Mr. Christie does more than just make good cookies! He's fourth in wins produced, behind only Bosh, Calderon, and Carter. For a long time Christie was the one who carried the team, which a lot of people seem to forget.
PG - Damon Stoudamire
Despite all the fanfare, the much heralded Mighty Mouse was about average during his time in Toronto. He scored a lot and racked up the assists, but his shooting wasn't very efficient. Although there have been point guards who were more efficient than him, Stoudamire played more minutes and racked up more total wins, so he manages to make it onto the second team.
3rd Team
C - Keon Clark
After Bosh and Davis, I'm sad to report that the next-best centre is none other than Keon Clark. My favourite memory of Clark is when he sucked the gravity right out of the building and dunked over everyone's target of choice, Shawn Bradley. While Clark was above-average during his time in Toronto, he didn't last very long, and once he left he quickly succumbed to drug problems and couldn't stick in the league.
PF - Charles Oakley
Oak was solid during his Raptor years, but clearly a shadow of the player who grabbed 35 rebounds in one game while in Chicago. He was acquired in a trade with the Knicks that cost the team Marcus Camby (who - as Andres has noted - hadn't been very successful in Toronto but went on to become very productive).
SF - Morris Peterson
While he hovered around average over his 7 seasons with the team, Mo Pete played the most games and the second most minutes of any Raptor. Ideally he'd be slotted in at shooting guard, but I put him here in order to fit in the next two players.
SG - Anthony Parker
Parker was a brilliant signing by Brian Collangelo - while he was drafted by the Nets in '97, he didn't last in the NBA for very long and went overseas. Eventually, when Maccabi Tel Aviv became the first European team to beat an NBA in North America, Parker was the one who hit the game winning shot, and he was signed by the Raps shortly after. While he's showing his age right now in Cleveland, he was above-average in Toronto and helped to contribute a significant number of wins to the Division-winning '06-'07 team.
PG - Alvin Williams
Williams was kind of similar to Antonio Davis, in that he was not an above-average player for most of his career but was relatively long-serving. He also played a lot of minutes while he was injured, which eventually took its toll and forced him into retirement. Williams was acquired in the trade that sent the disgruntled Stoudamire to Portland.
I suspect that the All-Raptor third team would not stack up well with the third teams of most other NBA teams - something that I'd chalk up to the young age of the Raptors. Although I'm sure that these three teams would beat the three teams offered by the Bobcats or the Grizzlies.
- Devin
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
All-Raptor teams
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Raptors All-Time Leaders
New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.
The last two times I had some Sporcle quizzes for you, I was limited to the numbers that are currently on the Wins Produced Viewer that is Powered by Nerd Numbers. But Andres Alvarez, creator of the Wins Produced Viewer and Nerd Numbers, was nice enough to put together the all-time Toronto Raptors franchise stats for me, which, of course, means more Sporcle quizzes:
Raptors All-Time Wins Produced Leaders
Raptors All-Time Fewest Wins Produced
If you are interested, here is the complete list of every player to put on a Raptor uniform (not including the current season), and here is the list of players who met the minute requirements (800 MP).
Remember, if you take a look at the list before playing the quiz, you're only cheating yourself.
- Devin
The last two times I had some Sporcle quizzes for you, I was limited to the numbers that are currently on the Wins Produced Viewer that is Powered by Nerd Numbers. But Andres Alvarez, creator of the Wins Produced Viewer and Nerd Numbers, was nice enough to put together the all-time Toronto Raptors franchise stats for me, which, of course, means more Sporcle quizzes:
Raptors All-Time Wins Produced Leaders
Raptors All-Time Fewest Wins Produced
If you are interested, here is the complete list of every player to put on a Raptor uniform (not including the current season), and here is the list of players who met the minute requirements (800 MP).
Remember, if you take a look at the list before playing the quiz, you're only cheating yourself.
- Devin
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Week 7 Raptors Auto WP
New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.
Time for week 7 WP numbers, which are Powered by Nerd Numbers (full spreadsheet here):
Here are my thoughts:
- Devin.
Time for week 7 WP numbers, which are Powered by Nerd Numbers (full spreadsheet here):
Here are my thoughts:
- Bargnani, Kleiza, and Barbosa have all had good games over the past week or so, and it's now showing in their WP48. Bargnani is up almost 0.035, Kleiza's up 0.040, and Barbosa's up around 0.040. Despite what many people think, I would love to see these trends continue.
- Those three are still really unhelpful: only Barbosa is in the positive range (WP48 0.004), and only barely.
- Weems and DeRozan remain mostly unchanged, and continue to offer very little as well.
- Julian Wright has improved slightly.
- Calderon and Evans haven't played, and so have remained stable.
- Everyone else - Johnson, Bayless, Dorsey, and Davis - has declined. Other than Johnson, these players haven't played that many minutes, so the variation is not surprising. Johnson's been up and down all season long.
- Even though his WP48 decreased, Bayless improved his AdjFG% by 5%. So why did his WP48 decrease? More minutes at PG (due to Calderon being injured) and fewer net possessions (his rebounding had been exceptional and was bound to regress).
- Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson are 27th and 37th, respectively, on Arturo's list of most important players
- Bargnani, DeRozan, Kleiza, and Weems (1st, 21st, 44th, and 47th, respectively) are on Arturo's naughty list.
- Maybe we'll just kick Barbosa out of that group for the time being and stick with the four horsemen again.
- Devin.
Labels:
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More all-star ballot fun
New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.
A while back I posted who I thought should be on this year's all-star ballot. Recently Ian Levy has written a post about the East's all-star ballot - who is on the list, who should be on the list, but isn't, and who shouldn't be on the list, but is - and several Raptors feature prominently.
Go check it out!
- Devin.
A while back I posted who I thought should be on this year's all-star ballot. Recently Ian Levy has written a post about the East's all-star ballot - who is on the list, who should be on the list, but isn't, and who shouldn't be on the list, but is - and several Raptors feature prominently.
Go check it out!
- Devin.
Labels:
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Sunday, December 12, 2010
Week 6/7 Team Stats
New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.
Time for a team stats update! These numbers are provided by dougstats and Nerd Numbers (full spreadsheet here):
Here are some thoughts:
- Devin
Time for a team stats update! These numbers are provided by dougstats and Nerd Numbers (full spreadsheet here):
Here are some thoughts:
- Toronto's fallen a few places - down from 20th to 22nd place - in terms of team WP48. As before, there is a log-jam - now narrowed to 18th-22nd place - so don't don't read too much into it.
- The 3pt shooting is slowly getting better, from around 31% to almost 34%. 3pt attempts have also increased slightly. Team shooting in general is doing a bit better.
- Last time the surprises were the Hornets, the Pacers, the Nets, and the Kings. This is how they are doing now: Hornets (league 9th, West 5th); Pacers (league 8th, East 4th); Nets (league 23rd, East 12th); and Kings (league 25th, West 13th). The Trailblazers (league 15th, West 8th) are doing a bit better, but the Warriors (league 28th, West 15th) are really stinking it up.
- The Cavs (league 29th, East 14th) are also not playing well at all.
- Meanwhile the Spurs (league 1st, West 1st) have ascended to the top spot, ahead of the other front-runners (Heat, Celtics, and Lakers).
- Devin
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Week 6 Auto WP Numbers
New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.
Ahhhh, I now (temporarily) have my own computer to work on for the next couple of weeks, and because of that, I can now post the Week 6 numbers. These stats are up-to-date as of 12/08, with the exception of the WP numbers, which are an additional day behind. So here are the numbers, which are - as is always the case - Powered by Nerd Numbers (full spreadsheet here):
Here are my thoughts:
Team stats update coming soon!
- Devin
Ahhhh, I now (temporarily) have my own computer to work on for the next couple of weeks, and because of that, I can now post the Week 6 numbers. These stats are up-to-date as of 12/08, with the exception of the WP numbers, which are an additional day behind. So here are the numbers, which are - as is always the case - Powered by Nerd Numbers (full spreadsheet here):
Here are my thoughts:
- Bargnani had finally had a good game against the Knicks, but it won't be enough to offset his previous two bad games, let alone his whole season to date (and remember, the WP numbers are a game behind right now). I'm not the only one who has noticed Bargs' lack of productivity, by the way. If he played every game as well as that one, I'd be his biggest fan! But it's far, far more likely that he'll continue to play poorly.
- Bayless really seems to have decided to play better ever since I proclaimed that Jarrett Jack's current season would be better than Bayless would ever be. I sure hope he keeps proving me wrong! He's almost been playing at a superstar level ever since he came to the Raptors...and he has been out-rebounding the team's starting centre.
- Ed Davis has been quite good during his first few games as an NBA player - something that I (and others) expected - although he's been even better than we thought. In fact, he's already sixth on the team in wins, despite only having played 88 minutes so far.
- As good as Davis has been playing, Joey Dorsey has been better. Dorsey is pretty similar to Reggie Evans - as I and others have noted in the past - so why not give Dorsey some more minutes?
- All of the Raptors' bigs - with the exception of Bargnani - have been quite productive. Maybe the team would have more success if Bargnani played fewer minutes and took fewer shots? The team isn't exactly tearing it up...why not give it a try?
- The other four horsemen - Barbosa, Kleiza, and DeRozan - have continued to be unproductive. I'd like like to nominate Sonny Weems as a new addition to the group, as his shot-happy ways have lowered his productivity. What new term should we use for this group of five players? The Five Tenors? The Final Five? Nothing really works quite as well as what David Berri came up with...I guess that's why he makes the big bucks.
- I'm glad Calderon is back to his old self - let's hope he keeps playing well.
- Still waiting for the Raps to make an additional roster move - Stojakovic has missed a bunch of games and the team needs some more useful guard/forwards. There is also still an open roster spot, and with Dampier landing (and - strangely - not playing very much) in Miami, I really have no idea what's going on on that front.
Team stats update coming soon!
- Devin
Labels:
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Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Bargnani is playing better this season...right?
New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments on this post.
Ah, another Barngani post. Whenever I feel like this site hasn't been getting much traffic lately, I know I can always count on a good ol' Bargnani post to bolster the numbers.
Last time I pointed out that not only should Bargnani not be considered an all-star this season, but that he shouldn't even be on the all-star ballot. Predictably, there were several negative and insulting comments left on that post, but thankfully, there were also some thoughtful comments, including this one by Eugene:
First let's look at Bargnani's numbers for the season. In the following table I've compared the stats of each of Bargnani's seasons, his career stats, and his career stats before this season, to the average numbers posted by the average centre and the average power forward (and no, we are not getting into another debate about which position Bargnani plays; he is clearly a PF who spends at least some time playing C). In addition to the things I normally look at, I've also included PER (which I do not endorse, because it rewards players for taking addtional shots, even when those shots miss), Win Shares per 48 (which I do not endorse, although it is much better than PER), and PPG. Here's the table:
What do the numbers say? Of the three comprehensive stats - WP48, WS/48, and PER, all of them say that Bargnani is less productive this season as compared to last season. Let me repeat: all three say that Bargnani is playing worse this season.
So what's changed? While he must be congratulated for getting to the line more often this year (2.5 more FTA per 48 minutes over last year - quite an achievement), making a higher percentage of his free-throws, and incrementally increasing his assists and steals (which remain close to his career averages and continue to be below average), his shooting efficiency has taken a dive, his turnovers have nearly doubled, and his already paltry rebounding numbers have fallen. His usually decent block numbers have decreased quite a bit, and his fouls - while still better than average - have increased.
Hmmm...am I forgetting to mention something? Oh yes: PTS, and PPG. Both have increased substantially. Unfortunately, given that Bargnani's shooting efficiency has decreased this year, he requires more shot attempts to get those points, and each missed shot hurts the team. Sure, he's making more shots and scoring more points, but all those additional missed shots fall into the hands of the opposing teams, which use the extra possessions to score more of their own points. Right now, Bargnani's shooting efficiency is just barely above the average numbers for power forwards and centres, and coming from a guy for whom shooting is supposed to be a strength, that's not a good sign.
Bargnani is a "scorer" who doesn't score very efficiently, one who also falls short in almost every other area of the game. Although his rebounding is particularly poor this year, he has always been a poor rebounder. Rather than hypothesizing that Evans (and Bosh before him) are "stealing his rebounds", perhaps the simpler explanation - that Bargnani simply can't or won't rebound - is the best one? After he's had a few more games without Evans, I'll take a look at his rebounds before and after Evans went down with injury, and I suspect that there will be little difference between the numbers.
After all, with Evans out, all that means is that someone else will be "stealing" rebounds away from him, right? Eventually, one must accept that Bargnani is simply a terrible, terrible rebounder.
Finally, let me address the following anonymous comment:
It has been shown that, time and time again, fans, coaches, and most members of the media use scoring to determine awards - no question about that. We also know that certain big-name players - Jordan (Wizards-era), Shaq (post Lakers), Vince Carter (most of the time), Yao Ming (while injured), and others - get voted in all the time, even when they don't deserve it. We also always hear arguments about how "entertaining", "exciting", and "fun" some players are to watch, and how that makes them qualify for the all-star game. Here's a shocking idea: how about the most productive players in the league make the all-star game?
Furthermore, do we really need to create all-star ballots in the first place? How many people actually fill out the physical ballots at arenas? I'm certain that most of the balloting happens online. Why not open up the online ballot to every single player in the league, removing the need to write players in? When using an online ballot, it's not like the NBA has to worry about printing costs and must keep the list of players short.
The team stats for week six will be up in a couple of days - I'm having computer problems at the moment. Also in store over the next little bit is the Raptors' all-time wins produced leaders, analysis that will be Powered by Nerd Numbers.
- Devin
Ah, another Barngani post. Whenever I feel like this site hasn't been getting much traffic lately, I know I can always count on a good ol' Bargnani post to bolster the numbers.
Last time I pointed out that not only should Bargnani not be considered an all-star this season, but that he shouldn't even be on the all-star ballot. Predictably, there were several negative and insulting comments left on that post, but thankfully, there were also some thoughtful comments, including this one by Eugene:
The more I look at bargnani's play this year and look at the relevant stats, the more I have come to a conclusion that is opposite to what has been generally suggested on this blog. That is to say: it is not the case that wp48 numbers show that, contrary to naive opinion, bargnani is an astonishingly bad NBA player. Rather, the fact that bargnani is a reasonably decent NBA player shows that there is something very seriously wrong with wins produced.
This is especially made clear when you look at the raptors front court tandem from earlier in the year. Bargs and Evans played a lot of minutes together, and according to wp48 bargs was mind-shatteringly awful while, simultaneously, evnas was the 4th best player in the NBA. What this demonstrates to me is that wp48 does a very bad job of allocating credit for wins. If you average their wp48 numbers, the average value makes sense, but wp48 gives Evans an unreasonable amount of credit and bargnani an unfair share of blame.Eugene: that was a constructive comment - thanks for leaving it. But it's a common criticsm that us WP writers hear all the time; Arturo of Arturo's Silly Stats has written a bunch of stuff on it lately. Rather than examine WP methodology - I'll leave that Arturo - let's take a look at Bargnani's year-by-year numbers. If the numbers show that Bargnani has significantly improved his playing this year, that might be an indication that WP may have flaws. And if the numbers show that Bargnani has become more productive with Evans out, that might also be a sign that WP is flawed.
First let's look at Bargnani's numbers for the season. In the following table I've compared the stats of each of Bargnani's seasons, his career stats, and his career stats before this season, to the average numbers posted by the average centre and the average power forward (and no, we are not getting into another debate about which position Bargnani plays; he is clearly a PF who spends at least some time playing C). In addition to the things I normally look at, I've also included PER (which I do not endorse, because it rewards players for taking addtional shots, even when those shots miss), Win Shares per 48 (which I do not endorse, although it is much better than PER), and PPG. Here's the table:
What do the numbers say? Of the three comprehensive stats - WP48, WS/48, and PER, all of them say that Bargnani is less productive this season as compared to last season. Let me repeat: all three say that Bargnani is playing worse this season.
So what's changed? While he must be congratulated for getting to the line more often this year (2.5 more FTA per 48 minutes over last year - quite an achievement), making a higher percentage of his free-throws, and incrementally increasing his assists and steals (which remain close to his career averages and continue to be below average), his shooting efficiency has taken a dive, his turnovers have nearly doubled, and his already paltry rebounding numbers have fallen. His usually decent block numbers have decreased quite a bit, and his fouls - while still better than average - have increased.
Hmmm...am I forgetting to mention something? Oh yes: PTS, and PPG. Both have increased substantially. Unfortunately, given that Bargnani's shooting efficiency has decreased this year, he requires more shot attempts to get those points, and each missed shot hurts the team. Sure, he's making more shots and scoring more points, but all those additional missed shots fall into the hands of the opposing teams, which use the extra possessions to score more of their own points. Right now, Bargnani's shooting efficiency is just barely above the average numbers for power forwards and centres, and coming from a guy for whom shooting is supposed to be a strength, that's not a good sign.
Bargnani is a "scorer" who doesn't score very efficiently, one who also falls short in almost every other area of the game. Although his rebounding is particularly poor this year, he has always been a poor rebounder. Rather than hypothesizing that Evans (and Bosh before him) are "stealing his rebounds", perhaps the simpler explanation - that Bargnani simply can't or won't rebound - is the best one? After he's had a few more games without Evans, I'll take a look at his rebounds before and after Evans went down with injury, and I suspect that there will be little difference between the numbers.
After all, with Evans out, all that means is that someone else will be "stealing" rebounds away from him, right? Eventually, one must accept that Bargnani is simply a terrible, terrible rebounder.
Finally, let me address the following anonymous comment:
Wins Produced and defensive capabilities have absolutely nothing to do with making the all-star games. The majority of fans will never vote based on that, and I guarantee Coaches don't break down WP numbers to make decisions in their voting.
It all comes down to who they 'feel' deserves it (although from my experience name recognition tends to be paramount). While more hardcore fans will base decisions on advanced numbers, don't expect an all-star game, that is for fun and completely irrelevant, to be based on that.
If he does make the all-star game (and I'm not saying he will) it will be completely based on his scoring.
I'm also going to laugh my ass off if shaq gets voted to the all-star game by either the fans or coaches.While it is true that the majority of fans do not take defensive capabilities (and certainly WP) into account when they are filling out their all-star ballots, that doesn't make it right. I think it would be better if fans learned to recognize more productive players and rewarded them accordingly. Of course, certain defensive players - like four-time all-star Ben Wallace - do manage to make get fan recognition, so the argument that fans completely ignore defensive is not quite accurate.
It has been shown that, time and time again, fans, coaches, and most members of the media use scoring to determine awards - no question about that. We also know that certain big-name players - Jordan (Wizards-era), Shaq (post Lakers), Vince Carter (most of the time), Yao Ming (while injured), and others - get voted in all the time, even when they don't deserve it. We also always hear arguments about how "entertaining", "exciting", and "fun" some players are to watch, and how that makes them qualify for the all-star game. Here's a shocking idea: how about the most productive players in the league make the all-star game?
Furthermore, do we really need to create all-star ballots in the first place? How many people actually fill out the physical ballots at arenas? I'm certain that most of the balloting happens online. Why not open up the online ballot to every single player in the league, removing the need to write players in? When using an online ballot, it's not like the NBA has to worry about printing costs and must keep the list of players short.
The team stats for week six will be up in a couple of days - I'm having computer problems at the moment. Also in store over the next little bit is the Raptors' all-time wins produced leaders, analysis that will be Powered by Nerd Numbers.
- Devin
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Saturday, December 4, 2010
Bargnani the All-Star?
New readers, please check out the basics before you leave any comments.
There's an interesting post over at T.Jose Calderford. The author takes a look at the numbers and asks if Andrea Bargnani should be considered an all-star this year:
The author then goes into more detail, saying that Bargnani should not be picked ahead of Joakim Noah or Al Horford (which the WP numbers support). He also has a very interesting 'stat of the day':
Wins Produced tells us that, over his career, Andrea Bargnani is not productive, and this season is no different. But fans of the NBA have been fooled into thinking that Bargnani is a good player due to the number of points he scores, regardless of his shooting efficiency and other important aspects of basketball (most notably rebounding). Factoids like the ones mentioned on T.Jose Calderford are the type of things that show up during broadcasts and make casual fans think that Bargnani is a good player (even though Joe Barry Carroll is included in this list).
No, Bargnani should not be an all-star. In fact, Bargnani wouldn't even be on my all-star ballot. Yes, he is one of the few young seven-footers to reach an arbitrary number of points scored per game; but if you take a closer look at the numbers you will find that he is not as productive as his PPG suggests.
- Devin
There's an interesting post over at T.Jose Calderford. The author takes a look at the numbers and asks if Andrea Bargnani should be considered an all-star this year:
Let's get one qualifier out of the way immediately: The only way he has a remote shot is if Dwight Howard wins the fan voting. If Shaq wins the fan vote, that means Howard has to be a reserve, all but guaranteeing Bargnani would be out of the loop.
Next, let's take his one real positive (his scoring) and put it in context:
He's averaging 20.9 points per game, as a 7-footer. Is that rare? Here's the list of 7-footers that have averaged at least that amount over the last 15 years:
Patrick Ewing
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson
So, what he's doing is pretty impressive/unique considering his size and position.
The author then goes into more detail, saying that Bargnani should not be picked ahead of Joakim Noah or Al Horford (which the WP numbers support). He also has a very interesting 'stat of the day':
20+ PTS PER GAME
7-0 OR TALLER
25 YRS OF AGE OR YOUNGER
It's something that's happened just 38 times in NBA history, done by just 14 players. Here is the list (in alpha order):
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Joe Barry Carroll
Bill Cartwright
Wilt Chamberlain
Brad Daugherty
Patrick Ewing
Pau Gasol
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson
Ralph Sampson
Wins Produced tells us that, over his career, Andrea Bargnani is not productive, and this season is no different. But fans of the NBA have been fooled into thinking that Bargnani is a good player due to the number of points he scores, regardless of his shooting efficiency and other important aspects of basketball (most notably rebounding). Factoids like the ones mentioned on T.Jose Calderford are the type of things that show up during broadcasts and make casual fans think that Bargnani is a good player (even though Joe Barry Carroll is included in this list).
No, Bargnani should not be an all-star. In fact, Bargnani wouldn't even be on my all-star ballot. Yes, he is one of the few young seven-footers to reach an arbitrary number of points scored per game; but if you take a closer look at the numbers you will find that he is not as productive as his PPG suggests.
- Devin
Thursday, December 2, 2010
Top 3 draft picks (part II)
New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.
As a follow-up to the last post about top three draft picks, I've made some modifications to my first table (new spreadsheet still here):
Certain people were blinded by some big numbers, so I added some new parts. The first, "title teams without own top 3 draft pick," is pretty self-explanatory, but I figure I'd better explain it anyways. That counts the number of teams that won a championship without having a player on their roster that said team drafted in the top three slots. Any difference between the numbers in this new category and the previous number of 88.9% (40/45) can be explained by trades or free agency. That means that only 29 teams - 64.4% - of teams that won a championship won it with a player that they themselves took with a top three selection. Not as rosy a number, is it?
It's still a rather large number, but as with John McCain, it gets worse (sorry Canadian readers, you'll have to go to the Comedy Network site instead...trust me, I hate it too). The last category explains the number of top three picks that won one or more championships with the team that drafted them. Of the 135 top three picks taken from 1966-2010, only 13 (not 16 as it says in the table, because Baylor, West, and Barry were drafted before 1966) managed to win a championship with the team that drafted them. Between them, these 13 players have managed to win 27 championships. Who are these players, and how many titles did they win with the team that drafted them?
The fact is that very few teams that have a top three pick will celebrate a championship with the player they draft; only 9.6% of teams have managed to win a championship with a top three pick that they've drafted (from 1966-2010). In order to be successful, teams need to have several good players and at least one superstar player. Most rookies aren't superstar players, and most top three picks don't play with good teammates. All of this leads me to say (again) that the Raptors need to build a good team, ditch bad contracts, learn how to draft, and stop worrying about tanking.
Next time I talk about top three picks, I'm going to compare championship teams to non-championship teams. Originally I was going to include that analysis in this post, but it's going to take a lot of work and be rather long, so this'll have to tide you over for now.
- Devin
As a follow-up to the last post about top three draft picks, I've made some modifications to my first table (new spreadsheet still here):
Certain people were blinded by some big numbers, so I added some new parts. The first, "title teams without own top 3 draft pick," is pretty self-explanatory, but I figure I'd better explain it anyways. That counts the number of teams that won a championship without having a player on their roster that said team drafted in the top three slots. Any difference between the numbers in this new category and the previous number of 88.9% (40/45) can be explained by trades or free agency. That means that only 29 teams - 64.4% - of teams that won a championship won it with a player that they themselves took with a top three selection. Not as rosy a number, is it?
It's still a rather large number, but as with John McCain, it gets worse (sorry Canadian readers, you'll have to go to the Comedy Network site instead...trust me, I hate it too). The last category explains the number of top three picks that won one or more championships with the team that drafted them. Of the 135 top three picks taken from 1966-2010, only 13 (not 16 as it says in the table, because Baylor, West, and Barry were drafted before 1966) managed to win a championship with the team that drafted them. Between them, these 13 players have managed to win 27 championships. Who are these players, and how many titles did they win with the team that drafted them?
- Michael Jordan, 6
- Magic Johnson, 5
- Tim Duncan, 4
- Kevin McHale, 3
- Hakeem Olajuwon, 2
- David Robinson, 2
- Isiah Thomas, 2
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1
- Bill Walton, 1
- Wes Unseld, 1
- Sean Elliott, 1
- Darko Milicic, 1
- Cazzie Russell, 1
The fact is that very few teams that have a top three pick will celebrate a championship with the player they draft; only 9.6% of teams have managed to win a championship with a top three pick that they've drafted (from 1966-2010). In order to be successful, teams need to have several good players and at least one superstar player. Most rookies aren't superstar players, and most top three picks don't play with good teammates. All of this leads me to say (again) that the Raptors need to build a good team, ditch bad contracts, learn how to draft, and stop worrying about tanking.
Next time I talk about top three picks, I'm going to compare championship teams to non-championship teams. Originally I was going to include that analysis in this post, but it's going to take a lot of work and be rather long, so this'll have to tide you over for now.
- Devin
Labels:
1st pick,
bust,
draft,
good players,
NBA,
NBA champions
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Raptors most and least efficient players (2000s)
New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.
A week ago I posted the Raptors wins leaders for the 2000-01 to the 2010-11 seasons. I also created some Sporcle quizzes out of them to make things more interesting.
Today I have two more quizzes for you: the Raptors' most and least efficient players for the seasons from 2000-01 to 2010-11. To qualify for these lists, players also had to have played at least 400 minutes as a Raptor. Some of the answers may surprise you; others should not (the least efficient Raptor is someone I identified years ago as a terrible player, but you'd have to be a very dedicated Raptor fan - like me - to remember him).
I love Sporcle, so if you find some nice NBA quizzes on there, let me know in a comment. Of course, chances are that I've already played the quiz, but give it a shot anyways!
- Devin
A week ago I posted the Raptors wins leaders for the 2000-01 to the 2010-11 seasons. I also created some Sporcle quizzes out of them to make things more interesting.
Today I have two more quizzes for you: the Raptors' most and least efficient players for the seasons from 2000-01 to 2010-11. To qualify for these lists, players also had to have played at least 400 minutes as a Raptor. Some of the answers may surprise you; others should not (the least efficient Raptor is someone I identified years ago as a terrible player, but you'd have to be a very dedicated Raptor fan - like me - to remember him).
I love Sporcle, so if you find some nice NBA quizzes on there, let me know in a comment. Of course, chances are that I've already played the quiz, but give it a shot anyways!
- Devin
Labels:
bad players,
good players,
Raptors,
sporcle,
Wins Produced
Week 5 WP numbers
New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.
After almost a week travelling to and fro, I'm back and ready to post the Week 5 auto WP numbers. A lot of important things have happened, especially Reggie Evans going down with a broken foot and the imminent return of Ed Davis. Here are the numbers (spreadsheet here):
Here are my thoughts:
And how was Bargnavans doing?
Pretty well, actually. With Evans out, who will the Raptors pair up with Bargnani, and will they make up for his flaws? Only time will tell; tune in next week to find out!
Or, you know, watch the games. But if you come here, you won't even have to!
- Devin
After almost a week travelling to and fro, I'm back and ready to post the Week 5 auto WP numbers. A lot of important things have happened, especially Reggie Evans going down with a broken foot and the imminent return of Ed Davis. Here are the numbers (spreadsheet here):
Here are my thoughts:
- Reggie. The player with the third highest WP48 in the league (minimum 100 MP) was the driving force behind the relatively surprising Raptors. Now that he's out for 4-6 weeks with a broken foot, the team is going to have to find a way to replace his productivity (which was mainly due to rebounding).
- Could that player be Joey Dorsey? I've said it over and over - when Dorsey gets playing time, he produces at a very high level. He started in Evans' place the other day and replaced him quite nicely. Surprisingly, Dorsey's rebounding is very similar to Reggie's. The only problem he might face is foul-trouble and a lack of minutes.
- With Jack gone, Calderon has picked it up quite a bit. Perhaps the Hornets trade has lead to some psychological gains in his case. He's really only improved with regards to shooting, something I've been waiting for, so it's not unexpected.
- Bayless and Stojakovic have been quite good in limited minutes (and Jack has been terrible - with a WP48 of -0.159 in 70 min - over in New Orleans). But it's too early to fully evaluate stats just yet, so no one jump on me just yet. Bayless still can't shoot, but so far he's been getting to the line like crazy.
- Bargnani still "leads" the league with -1.5 wins, and his closest competitor is Knicks centre Tomofey Mozgov at -0.9 wins. Barring injury, I think Bargs is a lock to win the fewest wins produced this year.
- Bargnani is shooting less accurately, but a decrease in FGA and an increase in FTA has helped to offset that. Overall, he is playing slightly better than he was last time.
- Kleiza has gotten a little bit better across the board, and it's showing in his numbers. Mind you, he's still been terrible so far this year, but he's improving.
- Sonny Weems has gotten quite a bit worse. His FGA have stayed about the same, but his FTA have decreased and his PPS and AdjFG% have dropped quite a bit (from 1.11 to 0.98 and 55.7% to 49.1%, respectively).
And how was Bargnavans doing?
Pretty well, actually. With Evans out, who will the Raptors pair up with Bargnani, and will they make up for his flaws? Only time will tell; tune in next week to find out!
Or, you know, watch the games. But if you come here, you won't even have to!
- Devin
Labels:
2010-11,
bad players,
dorsey,
ed davis,
jarrett jack,
jose calderon,
kleiza,
Raptors,
reggie evans,
regular season,
sonny weems,
stats,
week 5,
Wins Produced
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