Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Week 2 WP Numbers

New readers, please check out the basics before you leave any comments.

Andres Alvarez has been updating the automated WP site regularly, so it's time for week two of the Auto WP numbers (spreadsheet here):

From now on, this spreadsheet will be updated automatically, so in the future, this entry will have current data (ie: my comments in this post might not make sense if you view this post next week)

Here are my thoughts for the season so far:
  • Reggie Evans has still been playing rather well, but (as I predicted) not quite as well as he had been playing. He still leads the Raptors with 1.4 wins
  • Jarrett Jack and Amir Johnson are next with 0.7 wins apiece. Johnson has been playing at a more productive rate, but he still hasn't been getting much playing time behind Evans
  • Calderon, Andersen, and Weems are in the next tier with 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 wins, respectively
  • Banks, Dorsey, and Wright are all around 0.1 in limited minutes
  • And then we have the Four Horsemen - DeRozan, Barbosa, Kleiza, and Bargnani - all producing at negative levels (-0.2, -0.2, -0.4, -0.5, respectively)
  • Each of these players are in the team's top five for shot attempts. Unfortunately none has managed to score an average amount of points per shot
  • Also unfortunate is that three of the Four Horsemen are in the Raptors' top four for minutes played
  • Reggie's shooting is mind-blowingly bad - but the guy rebounds like a madman and that makes up for it (and then some)
  • Johnson has foul trouble - big surprise. But as I've said before, all he has to do is be able to play 30 minutes; Johnson could still play just over 31.5 minutes a game at his current foul rate of 9.1 per 48min
  • David Andersen is still the rich man's Bargnani. Based on his play so far, he should probably be the Raptors' starting centre
  • Calderon's been productive without shooting well - hopefully he'll regress back to his normal shooting and see a jump in productivity
  • Kleiza has really fallen off what he was doing during preseason play
And let's check up on how Bargnavans is doing:

Oh, not so good. Who could've predicted that? Now that Reggie has fallen back down to earth and Bargnani is starting to work his "magic", the two don't look nearly as good together. The problem lies with Bargnani, of course, but don't tell that the kool-aid drinkers (unless you are a masochist).

Overall, there haven't really been many surprises for the Raptors so far - if they continue to play like this, they should finish the season with around 27 wins, which is what many people predicted before the start of the season.

In the next few days I'll be posting team data for every team in the league and seeing how the Raptors compare in various categories. But before I sign off, I'd like to say one thing: the state of basketball coverage is atrocious here in Victoria. I haven't been able to catch a single game on basic cable since the start of the season, and weeks can go by between showings. I blame this on the fact that the Raptors always put their games on stupid specialty channels like TSN2 or Sportsnet One. As the only Canadian team in the entire league, the Raptors should really focus on two things: 1) putting a better product on the court and 2) building their fanbase. Putting more games on basic cable across the country would go a long way towards the latter, although unfortunately I suspect that lack of success with regards to the former is to blame.

 - Devin


  1. Devin,
    As unofficial GM of Toronto how do you like these moves. Sign Dampier. Trade Bargnani to OKC for Jeff Green and for heck sakes play him at the 3.

    Also sorry to hear about the TV situation. Although if you started watching, wouldn't you just realize you were crazy to think Evans was so good?

  2. Wouldn't it be better to have all the games on RaptorsTV (or whatever it's called) so whoever wanted to watch them could just buy the channel?

  3. nerdnumbers,

    Contrary to what you might believe, Jeff Green's best position in the NBA is not Small Forward.

  4. Andres:

    I'm not really a fan of Jeff Green, even if you put him at SF. Surely the Raptors can do better than that?

    Oh, I've seen Evans play before - he's an offensively challenged big man who grabs tons of rebounds. He is what he is. Is that an anti-WoW tone I sense? Are you heckling me?


    Anonymous: I don't think that's a good model either. If you want to grow your audience, you have to make your product (ie: televised games) more easily available. I don't want to pay for a specialty channel just to watch Raptor games - they should be on regular cable.

    khandor: He's not a C, or a PG, and I (and many others) think he's miscast at PF. SF seems like his best position to me.

  5. IMO,

    Although you are certainly entitled to hold whatever you would like on the subject of Jeff Green's [6-9, 235] best position, those many others who might agree with your take on this subject just happen to be wrong, as well.

    IYO, was James Worthy [6-9, 225] a PF in the NBA?

    [Hint: IMO, "Big Game James" most definitely was.]

    The fact is, however:

    A. Neither James Worthy nor Jeff Green had/has the specific skill-set and/or physique of a typical PF in the NBA;

    B. This does not mean that PF is something other than the best position for either one to [have] play[ed] in the NBA game, given their specific attributes.

    [Unfortunately for Jeff, to this point in his career, he has not had the opportunity to play with teammates like Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, and Jamaal Wilkes, etc., or a head coach like Pat Riley, or Dean Smith.]

  6. Moving Evans out of the starting 5 would improve Bargnani's offensive numbers I would think as no one even pretends to guard Evans, leaving Andrea with that much less room to operate. In that instance I think Evans win shares seem a little high for a guy contributing in such a limited way.

  7. Mattt: remember it's Wins Produced, not Win Shares. They are different metrics.

    But check out this article on Evans:


    He isn't completely worthless on offense.

  8. Hey Devin,

    Off topic, but...

    How you are getting Google Spreadsheets to embed properly?

    I'm assuming this is a Google Blogger vs. Wordpress thing, but I can't get Wordpress to display Spreadsheets properly (text docs seem to work fine).

  9. Devin:

    The TV issue may not be the Raptors fault. I heard Eric Woolworth, president of the Miami Heat, on the Dan LeBatard Show and he said there are broadcast restrictions on every NBA team. They're only allowed to broadcast within a specified radius of their arena (I think it's 150 or 500 miles) and that could explain the poor TV coverage of Toronto, assuming Victoria is hundreds of miles away - isn't it on the west coast?

  10. Mosi:

    That is very interesting, and it kind of makes sense. Yes, Victoria is on the Pacific coast and Toronto is east of Detroit. I've never heard about that, and it would certainly explain the problems I've been having over here (which is funny, given the Chris Bosh comment recently - although my cable was fine back in Ottawa).

    I'd say the Raptors organization needs to take up this issue with the league and get an exemption due to the fact that there is on team in the whole damn country. I can understand where this would matter in an area that has greater "team density", because teams don't want to be competing with one another. But in Canada? Come on.

    Of course, this whole thing wouldn't be a problem if there was still an NBA team in Vancouver or Seattle. Once the Bobcats decide to move I hope they choose Vancouver.

    Ben: it may be a wordpress thing; I wouldn't know. All that I know is that you can get Google Docs to give you some html to embed in pages. I publish my page, get the html code, and stick it where I want it. It wouldn't surprise me if Google doesn't agree with wordpress, because Google's blogger is competing with wordpress.