Monday, November 22, 2010

Full TOR-NOH trade analysis

New readers, please check out the basics before you leave any comments.

It turns out that yes, the Raptors and Hornets did make a trade, and the details of the deal haven't changed since I posted my initial reactions. But I promised I would come up with some fancy graphs, so here is one:

Now everything I mentioned earlier becomes that much clearer. Over the past three seasons, the players Toronto had before the trade were better on a per-minute basis (WP48 of 0.077) and in terms of total wins (14.5) than the New Orleans players (WP48 of 0.051 and 9.2 wins produced). This year, the former Raptors have also been more productive on a per-minute basis (WP48 of 0.073 vs -0.046) and in terms of wins (0.8 vs -0.2). The Raptors take on $5.5 million in extra salary this season, but manage to save about $3.6 million over all of the years after that. Additionally, the Raptors seem to have spent about $2.3 million of the Bosh trade exception (as far as I can gather). So, to recap, the Raptors:
  • traded for players who have been less productive in the past
  • traded for players who have been less productive so far this season
  • traded for players who are likely to be less productive in the future
  • take on an extra $5.5 million in salary this season
  • save $3.6 million over the years after this season
  • spent $2.3 million of the TPE
  • opened up a roster spot
No, this is not a good deal. If the trade was "made with the future in mind", whoever's responsible for approving the trade either wants the Raps to do worse as an organization or is incompetent (we know where I stand on that issue). It doesn't improve the team on the court in the short term or long term, and financially, it hurts the team more in the short term than it helps in the long term. At least Bryan Colangelo is up front about the team being worse in the short term:
"whether or not we win games is really not the true issue right now, it's how much we're growing as an organization, how much these young kids are coming along." 
Unfortunately for the Raptors, Bayless probably won't become a useful player, and everyone knows what BC has done with lots of cap space in the past (see Turkoglu, Hedo).

 - Devin


  1. That last point may be your most poignant. I like cap flexibility (depending on the new agreement) but is BCO the right man to handle it?

  2. you can't take his work in Toronto, you have to take his entire career into count, you don't see the Pacers trying to fire Bird after some bad years

  3. The numbers don't look good but this was still a good trade, it puts the point guard question to rest as Jose is now the man, Anderson going frees up minutes for Ed Davis and you take a chance on Bayless who might just turn into a very good point guard, if not no harm as his contract is not huge. Peja brings experience and 3 pointer that the Raps are lacking and he comes off the books at the end of the year anyway or we flip him to a contender who need an added scoring punch for picks and prospects.

  4. The Raptors W-L Record/Win% prior to completing these two trades was 4-9/.308.

    It will now be very interesting to see how these numbers will compare to their W-L Record/Win% for the remainder of the season.

    In contrast to what it says here, IMO, these two trades will actually increase the likelihood of the Raptors failing to finish in one of the bottom two positions in the Eastern Conference standings this season ... which, in turn, will mean that they will not be picking in one of the top three positions in the 2011 NBA Draft, when franchise-changing players like Harrison Barnes [SF] and, possibly, Kyrie Irving [PG] are scheduled to be available.

    When it comes to projecting forward ... as opposed to looking backwards ... it's amazing just how mis-guided some so-called 'stats-based' bassketball analyses can actually turn out to be.

  5. Actually 7.543 mill will be saved by the Raptors after this year (assuming David Andersen is waived after this year).

    After 10/11:
    Jarret Jack: 10.4 mill left
    David Andersen: 2.685 mill left (.185 if waived before 10/11)
    Marcus Banks: UFA
    Peja Stojakovic: UFA
    Bayless: 3.042 mill left

    Also, the Raptors were sent cash by New Orleans this year (unspecified amount, but up to 3 million).

    Most importantly, Jerryd Bayless has the potential to be better. Jack, Andersen and Banks don't.

  6. My contract info is from Hoopsworld; if there are any errors there, unfortunately I repeated them.

    Ah, "potential". I highly, highly doubt that Jerryd Bayless will ever be a better player than Jack is now, but we shall see.

    Yes, there was some cash involved...I say: big whoop. If it's not picks or players, it gets lost down the rabbit-hole.


    W/L record is not the best way to measure the quality of a team - the best way (and everyone worth consulting agrees with me on this one) would be point differential. I'd put money on the Raptors' PD decreasing after this trade. Even if the Raptors' PD increases, it is incredibly unlikely that the increase will be tied to Bayless or Stojakovic (maybe it could be Ed Davis, but he's going to be taking minutes away from already efficient players).

    Also khandor, given your constant disparaging of statistics and those who use them, what were your predictions for this season? Mine are located on this blog. If your predictions are more accurate than mine, you might have a leg to stand on (although it would still take more than one sample to determine who is truly more accurate).

    re: Colangelo's record:

    I certainly can just look at his record in Toronto, but taking a look at his entire career sounds like a good idea for a future post.

  7. Devin,

    The actual facts are these:

    i. There is no single "best way" to accurate measure the absolute quality of a specific basketball team.

    ii. W-L Record is a simple way to represent what a team actually is, according to Bill Parcells, a well-respected former NFL head coach and player personnel director, who has actually won multiple League Championships.

    iii. Point Differential is also a worthwhile representation of the quality of a specific team in the NBA, except if what you are interested in evaluating accurately is which particular team is actually more likely to win an upcoming game between two specific opponents and by what margin.

    iv. You should reconsider whether or not you are really willing to "put money on" the Raptors' PD actually decreasing after their acquisitions of Bayless and Stojakovic, in addition to the insertion of Davis into their everyday line-up ... because, if someone actually decides to take you up on that specific offer you might end up losing a substantial amount of $$$.

    v. There has been no "constant disparaging of statistics and those who use them" properly by me.

    vi. In general, what I happen to do involved with the making of sports-related prognostications does not involve making forecasts, in advance, for Total Wins by a specific team, in a given season, since this is not congruent with what I happen to do on a daily basis which, instead, involves making game-to-game selections according to a published wagering line.

    vii. Personally, I have little interest in comparing the accuracy of my assorted "predictions" vs yours - or, for that matter, someone like David Berri - since I have performed better than every other so-called "NBA Analyst/Expert" for the last 3 seasons combined, when it comes to making correct "Series Calls", in advance, in the NBA Playoffs.

    viii. re: examining Bryan Colangelo's record as an NBA GM

    I'd encourage you to do that. When you do, you might actually be surprised at what you will find, at least, when you compare the quality of the teams he's produced to the very best in the business [e.g. RC Buford, Danny Ainge, Mitch Kupchak, etc.] over a similar period of time.