There's an interesting post over at T.Jose Calderford. The author takes a look at the numbers and asks if Andrea Bargnani should be considered an all-star this year:
Let's get one qualifier out of the way immediately: The only way he has a remote shot is if Dwight Howard wins the fan voting. If Shaq wins the fan vote, that means Howard has to be a reserve, all but guaranteeing Bargnani would be out of the loop.
Next, let's take his one real positive (his scoring) and put it in context:
He's averaging 20.9 points per game, as a 7-footer. Is that rare? Here's the list of 7-footers that have averaged at least that amount over the last 15 years:
Patrick Ewing
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson
So, what he's doing is pretty impressive/unique considering his size and position.
The author then goes into more detail, saying that Bargnani should not be picked ahead of Joakim Noah or Al Horford (which the WP numbers support). He also has a very interesting 'stat of the day':
20+ PTS PER GAME
7-0 OR TALLER
25 YRS OF AGE OR YOUNGER
It's something that's happened just 38 times in NBA history, done by just 14 players. Here is the list (in alpha order):
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Joe Barry Carroll
Bill Cartwright
Wilt Chamberlain
Brad Daugherty
Patrick Ewing
Pau Gasol
Yao Ming
Dirk Nowitzki
Shaquille O'Neal
Hakeem Olajuwon
David Robinson
Ralph Sampson
Wins Produced tells us that, over his career, Andrea Bargnani is not productive, and this season is no different. But fans of the NBA have been fooled into thinking that Bargnani is a good player due to the number of points he scores, regardless of his shooting efficiency and other important aspects of basketball (most notably rebounding). Factoids like the ones mentioned on T.Jose Calderford are the type of things that show up during broadcasts and make casual fans think that Bargnani is a good player (even though Joe Barry Carroll is included in this list).
No, Bargnani should not be an all-star. In fact, Bargnani wouldn't even be on my all-star ballot. Yes, he is one of the few young seven-footers to reach an arbitrary number of points scored per game; but if you take a closer look at the numbers you will find that he is not as productive as his PPG suggests.
- Devin
numbers have made you numb, plain simple. Open your eyes and enjoy life behind stats.
ReplyDeleteWins Produced and defensive capabilities have absolutely nothing to do with making the all-star games. The majority of fans will never vote based on that, and I guarantee Coaches don't break down WP numbers to make decisions in their voting.
ReplyDeleteIt all comes down to who they 'feel' deserves it (although from my experience name recognition tends to be paramount). While more hardcore fans will base decisions on advanced numbers, don't expect an all-star game, that is for fun and completely irrelevant, to be based on that.
If he does make the all-star game (and I'm not saying he will) it will be completely based on his scoring.
I'm also going to laugh my ass off if shaq gets voted to the all-star game by either the fans or coaches.
I think Bargs is a great scorer and good passer,with high-level skills, but he'll never be a solid defensive player and rebounder.
ReplyDeleteHonestly, the last two features are not important to be an all-star... are important to win games...
I hope Bargs will improve his game!
Statistics are for losers. A famous coach once said that. Like Bargs rebounding stats- 4 before reggie was injured 8 afterwards. Watching the game it becomes obvious --Bargs is blocking out his man-and reggie is grabbing every board available. Its a case of good team play not being recorded as a stat.
ReplyDeleteThe more I look at bargnani's play this year and look at the relevant stats, the more I have come to a conclusion that is opposite to what has been generally suggested on this blog. That is to say: it is not the case that wp48 numbers show that, contrary to naive opinion, bargnani is an astonishingly bad NBA player. Rather, the fact that bargnani is a reasonably decent NBA player shows that there is something very seriously wrong with wins produced.
ReplyDeleteThis is especially made clear when you look at the raptors front court tandem from earlier in the year. Bargs and Evans played a lot of minutes together, and according to wp48 bargs was mind-shatteringly awful while, simultaneously, evnas was the 4th best player in the NBA. What this demonstrates to me is that wp48 does a very bad job of allocating credit for wins. If you average their wp48 numbers, the average value makes sense, but wp48 gives Evans an unreasonable amount of credit and bargnani an unfair share of blame.
Well, let's compare Bargnani's stats for the season so far to his previous seasons...in yet another Bargnani post.
ReplyDeleteDevin,
ReplyDeleteHaving lived in Toronto the past two years and watched a bunch of games live, I can tell you that Bargnani is junk. His poor WP48 stats aside, the guy has no desire to win basketball games. He'll get a dunk on the run, or nail a 3 pointer about once a game, and people will go off and say how versatile he is for a big man. At best he's a poor man's Dirk. At worst he's an overpaid first round bust.
Keep up the good work.
Bargnani will never and should never make an allstar team. He is an average player on a bad team.
ReplyDeleteI'm sure that Bargnani would show up on another "stats for 7-footers" list: lowest rebounds per 48 minutes for a 7-ft player!
ReplyDeleteA couple of short lists Bargnani is also on would be 1) 7-footers with a career FG% at 45 or less, and 2) ANY players who have played over 1800 minutes in a season and shot under 39% since, oh, 1960? Throw in the ability to clear the glass to the tune of a rebound every six minutes--WOOF! let me throw money at that. Dirk, even pushing toward 33, is worth infinitely more, in salary and playing time, despite being a shadow of what he was in his prime. In fact, since Bargnani actually costs his team wins, 'infinitely' falls short as a measure--and how often does one get to say that?
ReplyDelete