Wednesday, September 8, 2010

2009-10 Player Review: Julian Wright

I've already posted a little bit about Julian Wright already, but let's take a more in-depth look this time:

Deja vu, man

Wright was something of a disappointment in New Orleans. He was one of those rare rookies who managed to be an above-average player in his first season, only to regress rather substantially for two straight seasons. Let's look for some clues as to how he lost productivity:

He started off shooting the ball very efficiently, breaking 1.10 PPS. He followed that up with seasons of 0.94 PPS and 1.01 PPS; with such volatile shooting efficiency, it's difficult to predict where he'll end up next year. There are some clear trends, though - Wright is a poor free throw shooter, a poor scorer, doesn't take many FG or FT attempts; is a below-average rebounder, possession-getter, blocker, and passer; and is above-average with respect to steals, TOs, and PFs. For Wright to improve next season, he should try to improve his rebounding and increase his shot attempts (while maintaining or improving on the efficiency level he showed last year).

While his overall progression does not look good, he is only 23 years old and I have him penciled in for a WP48 of 0.050 next season - right around his career mark. It is entirely possible that the change of scenery will do him good and he will return to the rate of production we saw from him as a rookie; then again, it's also entirely possible that his downward trend will continue and he will enter into negative WP48 territory. Based on Wright's career so far, neither would be exceptionally surprising.

 - Devin.

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