Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Time to Make a Trade

So, following up on my last post, the Raptors have too many guards and need to make a trade. I've put together a list of players that I think might help the Raptors; to get on this list, each player had to fit certain criteria:
  1. A 2009-10 WP48 of 0.140 or above, with three exceptions (which I will explain below)
  2. A Wins/$Million ratio of 0.5 or above, with three (technically 5) exceptions (which I will explain below)
  3.  Shouldn't be older than 30, with one exception (which I will explain below)
  4. Can't be considered a "star" (from a media standpoint)
Why should all the players on the list have a 2009-10 WP48 of 0.140 or above? The Raptors have a couple of players around the 0.050 - 0.100 range, including some starters. In order to improve, they need to trade several of those types of players for a single, more efficient player.

Why should all the players on the list have a Wins/$Million ratio of 0.5 or above? Much less than that and the Raptors won't get good value for their money. The Raptors are over the cap and need to find some inexpensive talent.

Why not older than 30? After 30, players have a tendency to fall of a cliff in terms of production. The younger the player, the better.

Why not a media "star"? If they are considered "star" talent they will be hard to trade for. The players on this list shouldn't be all that difficult to obtain through trade.

With that out of the way, here is the list, sorted by Wins/$Million:

Now, onto the exceptions:
  • The three players on the list didn't manage a WP48 of 0.140 or above last season, and they are James Singleton, Jonas Jerebko, and Taj Gibson. Jerebko and Gibson are rookies who will probably improve (and are on very cheap contracts). Singleton has a history of performing much better than he did last year (although he is starting to near 30). Regardless, all would be welcome additions to the team.
  • The three players who didn't manage a Wins/$Million of 0.5 or above were Andris Biedrins, Andrei Kirilenko, and Tayshaun Prince. Kirilenko and Prince are in the final year of their deals, and as such, have extra value. Any trade involving those players would save some long-term money. Biedrins is a different story - last year he was injured and didn't play his usual number of minutes. Biedrins is very productive, plays centre (bonus), and will only be 24 next season. If the Warriors are dumb enough to let him go (and they probably are) he would be a very valuable player.
  • The one exception to "don't trade for anyone over 30" is Nazr Mohammed. Last season Mohammed was very productive (WP48 of 0.199) for the Bobcats, although I don't expect him to reach that level again this year; he will probably fall back around 0.100 next season. But he does have a one year contract and plays centre.
That being said, there are some players on here who will be difficult to pry away from their teams - Gibson, Jerebko, and (maybe) Iguodala are probably such players. There are also some players who may not maintain their value next season  - Mohammed, Ridnour, Singleton, Moon, and Prince are such players. Then again, they might end up having a few more great seasons.

Here are the Raptors guards:

I've ordered them from most tradeable (top) to least tradeable (bottom).

Barbosa is rather expensive and isn't likely to contribute very many wins next year. He has a reputation as a productive player and should be easy to trade. Banks isn't expected to play many minutes or be very productive, but he has an expiring contract and could prove to be useful to a team looking for cap relief. DeRozan is a young, exciting player who should improve next season. Unfortunately, he probably will still be a below-average player. Teams looking for young athletes with "potential" and "upside" may be interested in him.

Kleiza is a bit of a mystery because his contract details haven't been reported yet (as far as I can tell). He's probably signed to around $4 000 000 - $5 000 000, and at his rate of production that's somewhat reasonable. But the Raptors need to obtain more players with WP48s in the 0.140 or higher range; if he must be traded, then so be it.

Jack has a very reasonable contract and is rather efficient. Weems is close to an average player in terms of production, but he is in the last year of a very inexpensive contract and shouldn't be traded. Calderon - despite the rather large contract - is a very efficient player. If he can stay healthy, he will be well worth the money.

Possible trades
None of these are rumored - or even likely - I'm just throwing them out there, in no particular order:
  1. Barbosa to Bobcats for Nazr Mohammed
  2. Trade exception to Warriors for Andris Biedrins
  3. Banks and Jack to Warriors for Biedrins and Reggie Williams
  4. Barbosa to Cavs for Anderson Varejao
  5. Banks, Reggie Evans, and DeRozan to 76ers for Andre Iguodala
  6. Jack, Evans, and DeRozan to Bulls for Luol Deng and Taj Gibson
  7. Banks, Evans, and DeRozan to Pistons for Tayshaun Prince and Jonas Jerebko
  8. Banks, Evans, and DeRozan to Kings for Samuel Dalembert
  9. Evans, DeRozan, Jack, and Wright to the Kings for Samuel Dalembert and Omri Casspi
  10. Calderon, DeRozan, and Wright to the Magic for Jameer Nelson and Marcin Gortat
  11. DeRozan to the Blazers for Rudy Fernandez and Jeff Pendergraph
  12. Calderon, Banks, and Evans to the Jazz for Andrei Kirilenko
In a couple of months - once players who signed new contracts over the summer are able to be traded - there will be many more opportunities for the Raptors to improve via trade. Let's hope that the Raptors make some wise choices this time around.

 - Devin.


  1. Devin,
    4. is very possible and would do wonders! Essentially you make up for the loss of Bosh. Unfortunately you torture another talented player.
    10. Would be amazing but can't happen cause my Nuggets are getting Gorat!

    No number for getting Melo :)

  2. Another way for a team to improve is through internal development. That's a problem with trading DeRozan. It's fairly reasonable to expect him to improve this year.

    The Bosh trade exception is also a consideration. BC is unlikely to make any of these deals if they impede his ability to use the full trade exception and stay under the luxury tax. Why give up the ability to bring in talent for nothing?

  3. Paulie:

    DeRozan could improve, yes, and I hope that's the case, but last season he had a WP48 of 0.023. He is still rather young, so he may approach an average WP48 of 0.100, but I don't expect him to become a very productive player - a player with a WP48 of 0.140 or above. Weems can also improve, but he too doesn't look that likely to hit the 0.140 level. The best way to bring in talent for nothing is to retain/acquire draft picks and the next best way is through trade.

    The trade exception IS an important consideration - and Colangelo only has this season to use it. All of these deals work, so the salaries match up. While these deals may add some longer term deals to the books, there isn't that much difference in the salaries. If the Raptors were willing to approach the luxury tax as a 38-45 win team in the past, they should be willing to spend that much to try and reach the second round.