Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Week 14 Team Opponent Stats

New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.

Yesterday I posted the Team Stats update for week 14, and the day before that I posted the player stats for week 14. Today I'd like to post something I haven't done before: opponent stats. I figure that it would be interesting (and useful) to see how well other teams perform against the Raptors. Here's another of those weird double-scrolling charts:

If you'd prefer, you can also take a look at the spreadsheet version.

I noticed a bunch of interesting stuff in these numbers:

  • The Raptors are 4th in opponent Wins Produced (which actually isn't true WP - I'm using Arturo's point margin WP formula). That means that the teams that have played the Raptors are the 4th most productive in the league (not good).
  • Raptor opponents have the second highest TS%, AdjFG%, and 2P%.
  • Toronto isn't as bad at defending the three - opponents are only the 6th best from three-point range.
  • Opponents shoot the 9th most free-throws per shot attempt and manage to shoot the 8th highest percentage when they're at the line (which is probably partly luck and partly fouling good free-throw shooters).
  • Opponents are only 20th in 3pt tendency - even though opponents shoot well from three when playing Toronto, they know that they can go inside and get easier shots and draw fouls. This is because - wait for it - Toronto is bad at defense (shocker, I know).
  • Opponents don't gain that many extra possessions against the Raps - only 12th, at 7.0/48 (average is 6.9). They are 13th in rebounding, 5th in steals, and 12th in turnovers, with the turnovers cancelling out most of the advantage gained from the rebounding and steals.
  • Opponents are 7th in assists. Again, I'd mostly attribute this to poor Raptor defense, but some good defensive teams (like the Lakers) give up a lot of assists.
  • Opponents are 8th in blocks per 48. I'd mostly attribute that to poor shot selection by the Raptors, although some teams that are good at shooting (like Denver) also give up a lot of blocks.
  • Opponents are 25th in PFs per 48. Maybe the Raptors are shooting a lot of jump shots? But according to Hoopdata, the Raptors take a high proportion of their shots at the rim. Maybe the Raptors just don't know how to draw contact, even when they take close-range shots?
  • Looking at other teams' opponents...Cleveland is really taking a beating. Opponents are first in TS%, first in net possessions, second in assists, fifth in blocks...their only saving grace is that they are 13th in PFs.
  • According to the point margin calculation, opposing teams are playing the Cavs at a WP48 of 0.188. To put that into perspective...the best teams in the league right now - the Spurs, Heat, Celtics, and Lakers - are hovering around a WP48 of 0.145.
  • The difference between Cavs' opponents and the top four teams is as big as the difference between the top four teams and the Grizz, Knicks, Rockets, and Blazers. The teams that play the Cavs play so well that they make the best teams in the league look barely above average!

So Raptor fans, whenever you're feeling blue, remember one thing: at least you aren't a Cavs fans.

 - Devin


  1. Hint: I'm referring to the Grizzlies.

  2. Sure, the Grizz got better when they left town, but they weren't in Vancouver for very long and were never even mediocre in Vancouver. The Cavs, on the other hand, were the toast of the league for the last five years and are now one of the worst teams of all-time.

    And Vancouver's a nice city - most people wouldn't say the same about Cleveland (sorry Mr. Carey).

  3. Plus, Vancouver has the Canucks, which I guess works out.

    Cleveland's last world title was the 1964 NFL championship. That should tell you all you need to know.

  4. Pretty bad for a city with four major sports.

    Toronto hasn't done very well either; the Jays won twice ('92 and '93), but the Leafs haven't won since '67, the Raptors have only won one playoff series, and in I said, who cares about football (the Argos have won 15, most recently in 2004).

    Only a few cities can claim to be very successful on a regular basis.

  5. How Pittsburgh has done it with only three major sports, I don't quite know, but they do it. By the way, if my memory is correct, the Steel City is the only North American locale where all of the pro sports teams have the same two-color scheme; although Toronto comes close (honorable mention to the Huskies).

    By the way, I know correlation and causation are not the same thing, but 1967 was also the year that the Maple Leafs changed their logo from the 35-point leaf to the first version of the 11-point one used today. Time to make the alternate jerseys the primary ones?

  6. Devin:

    Where did you get the opponent stats from?

  7. dougstats: