For you new readers out there, make sure you know about the basics before you leave a silly anonymous comment.
Arturo Galletti - polymath and genius extraordinaire - has been keeping track of how accurate the predictions of the Wages of Wins Network Smackdown participants are, as well as those of some other, more prominent analysts (such as a certain ESPN stats "guru").
Go take a look! Right now, I'm in fourth place!
Do I get a medal yet? Or maybe a job with ESPN?
- Devin
Basketball analysis focusing on Canada's lone NBA team
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Week 1 WP Numbers
For you new readers out there, make sure you know about the basics before you leave a cowardly, anonymous comment that insults my intelligence, while offering no argument in support of that position.
Here are the automated WP numbers from the Raptors first three games (or view as a spreadsheet here):
My thoughts for the first week of the season:
Also, I'd like to address something: Bargnani is not a SF. He plays centre defensively most of the time, and if you squint really hard, you can pretend that he's a 3 on offense. But if you average those two aspects of the game, you get (at best) someone who is strictly a PF. The good thing is that Evans and Bargnani complement each other well; Evans can't (and doesn't) shoot, and Bargnani can't (and doesn't) rebound. If you add the two together, you get two frontcourt players with the following per 48min averages:
It's important to remember two things, however: Evans should get all the credit for gaining the extra possessions (rebounds), and Evans will fall back to earth in a couple of games, making this average far less appealing in the near future. I'll be keeping track of the Bargnavans factor throughout the season if this keeps up.
- Devin
Here are the automated WP numbers from the Raptors first three games (or view as a spreadsheet here):
My thoughts for the first week of the season:
- Wow. Reggie Evans is actually getting playing time! What we saw in preseason wasn't just experimentation
- Evans is killing it on the boards - 25 reb/48 - and it's boosting up his WP48. He's 9th in the league in total wins right now!
- And yet...his scoring is total garbage. Good thing he isn't shooting at all
- Bargnani hasn't been terrible so far; bad, but not terrible
- Sure, he's scored 33 1/3 points per 48 on 1.08 PPS...but your starting centre is grabbing only 4.3 Reb per 48 (eeeewww)
- Overall, Calderon hasn't played well yet either
- After being a very players during the preseason, both Kleiza and Jack haven't played as well. Blame Jack's performance on injuries, Kleiza's on...poor rebounding and bad TO numbers
- DeRozan has played well - good rebounding numbers so far
- Andersen continues to be the rich man's Bargnani, and continues to shoot better and rebound better than the Italian
- Amir Johnson played three games without missing a FG!
- But he hasn't played very much - partly fouls, partly coaching. With Evans playing so well, what's the rotation going to be like when Davis gets back?
- Weems and Barbosa have to shoot better if they aren't going to produce in other areas
- After the promising victory over the Varejao-less Cavs, what a bad finish to the Sacramento game
Also, I'd like to address something: Bargnani is not a SF. He plays centre defensively most of the time, and if you squint really hard, you can pretend that he's a 3 on offense. But if you average those two aspects of the game, you get (at best) someone who is strictly a PF. The good thing is that Evans and Bargnani complement each other well; Evans can't (and doesn't) shoot, and Bargnani can't (and doesn't) rebound. If you add the two together, you get two frontcourt players with the following per 48min averages:
It's important to remember two things, however: Evans should get all the credit for gaining the extra possessions (rebounds), and Evans will fall back to earth in a couple of games, making this average far less appealing in the near future. I'll be keeping track of the Bargnavans factor throughout the season if this keeps up.
- Devin
Sunday, October 31, 2010
AG Standards for Front Offices Audit: Toronto Raptors (Draft History II)
This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
Last time we looked at the last ten years of Toronto's draft history. The general conclusion? The Raptors are really bad at drafting productive players (or, if you want to put an optimistic spin on it, the Raptors are excellent at drafting unproductive players). But, as bad as they were, maybe some of those draft choices were the best available options? Let's take an individual look at each draft pick and see if the Raptors could have gotten anything better than they did (you might want to follow along with this spreadsheet).
As a Raptor fan, I gotta love the man. But looking at the numbers, Mo Pete wasn't so good in his first four seasons; he only managed a WP48 of 0.050. At the 21st pick, you would expect there to be some more palatable options than that, but was that the case? While there were 7 players with higher WP48s selected after him, the only truly useful players available were Michael Redd and Eduardo Najera. Overall, Mo Pete wasn't too bad of a pick.
DeeAndre Hulett never played a minute in the NBA, and neither did most of the players selected after him. While Jason Hart eventually played 5289 NBA minutes, he didn't play enough in his first four years to qualify. I'd give the Raptors a pass on this pick.
Michael Bradley was actually a pretty good player in limited minutes. Despite that, he never made much of an impact on the NBA, and after the Raptors cut him in 2004, his NBA career was pretty much over. Instead of Bradley, the Raps could've had Mehmet Okur, Jamaal Tinsley, or Samuel Dalembert. The Raptors didn't do too badly with Bradley - now if only they had had the intelligence to play him more minutes.
The 46th pick was traded. Which was fine, because that year there were no useful players available at that number. So far the Raptors have been pretty good.
And so begins the trading of useful draft picks. Kareem Rush was not a productive player - and Chris Jefferies didn't last long enough for us to find out how good he was. Trading down from #20 to #27, the Raptors missed out on the opportunity to draft Tayshaun Prince. Useful players available at #27 included Carlos Boozer, Dan Gadzuric, Luis Scola, and Matt Barnes. Given that the other two players involved in the exchange of these draft picks were Lindsey Hunter and Tracy Murray, I have no choice but to fail this draft decision. Drafting Carlos Boozer or Luis Scola would've been much better than Jefferies.
At #42, Scola and Barnes were still on the board. Yes, the Raptors could've picked up Boozer and Scola in the same draft if they knew what they were doing. And that is why you don't trade away your second round picks: when you hit with them, they have the potential to turn your franchise around.
Chris Bosh was a very good fourth pick - accordingly, Arturo ranks him 144 out of 980 draftees. But there were three players available who were even better than Bosh: Wade, Josh Howard, and Luke Walton. Now, keeping in mind that this ranking only considers the first four years, the only player I would think about drafting instead of Bosh would be (of course) Wade. So the Raptors did very well on this one.
Van der Hare never played in the NBA - and no one else drafted after him was useful. Looks like 2003 was a good drafting year.
Ah, the first monumental Raptor bust of the 21st century! Araujo was such a bad pick that he only managed to last 1585 career minutes. In those minutes, he was very bad (WP48 lower than -0.07). Who could the Raptors have chosen instead? Oh, only Andris Biedrins, Andre Iguodala, Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin, Anderson Varejao, Trevor Ariza, Dorell Wright, Josh Smith, Delonte West, Chris Duhon, Tony Allen, and Jameer Nelson - all above-average (WP48 greater than 0.100) players. It's funny, because the recent development of Bargnani had almost made me forget about Hoffa.
The 39th pick could have been useful - Trevor Ariza and Bernard Robinson were both available. Robinson wasn't all that good, but Ariza certainly was.
Ah, good old Pape. Well, he didn't play enough minutes to get ranked, and he wasn't that productive...but there was nothing after him. Hmmm. Maybe Toronto should have just taken Ariza at the 39th instead of trading down...but they only missed one really decent player, so you can't hold it against them too much. Overall though, 2004 was a bad year.
Busy draft year for the Raptors - let's start with the pick that had so many "experts" laughing: Villanueva. He actually wasn't that bad of a player - he managed a WP48 of 0.072 - and, as a scorer, was overrated, but the biggest problem with picking Villanueva so low was that...there were so many better players available. How many? Only David Lee, Marcin Gortat, Amir Johnson, Andrew Bynum, Luther Head, Danny Granger, Travis Diener, Jason Maxiell, Monta Ellis, Jarrett Jack, Ersan Ilyasova, and Ronny Turiaf. The Raptors could've at least chosen Granger there instead. This pick gets a D.
With Graham, you were never sure if you were getting "good Joey", the player who rebounded well and attacked the basket for easy shots, or "bad Joey", the player who hoisted up silly jumpers and didn't do much else (maybe the twins were playing tricks on us all?). Over his first four years his WP48 was 0.056. Again, instead of Graham, the Raptors could've had David Lee, Marcin Gortat, Amir Johnson, Luther Head, Danny Granger, Travis Diener, Jason Maxiell, Monta Ellis, Jarrett Jack, Ersan Ilyasova, or Ronny Turiaf. This pick gets a D minus.
Instead of seldomly played Roko Ukic, the Raptors could have had Gortat or Amir Johnson. But Ukic is exactly the kind of pick you want to make in the second round: high risk, high reward. All things considered, not a terrible choice.
Uros Slokar: another high risk, high reward pick. This time it didn't pan out, but again, at least Toronto went for it. There were no useful players selected after Slokar either, so this was an okay pick.
Everyone should know by now how badly the Raptors did by choosing Bargnani; I've talked about it several times before. In fact, if you've read those posts you'll know that Bargnani is ranked 970/980 draftees on Arturo's list. Instead of Bargnani, the Raptors could have chosen: Rajon Rondo, Renaldo Balkman, Brandon Roy, Paul Millsap, Ronnie Brewer, Leon Powe, Josh Boone, Kyle Lowry, Thabo Sefolosha, Tyrus Thomas, or Shelden Williams. This pick is an F.
Had the Raptors not traded #20, they could've had Rondo, Balkman, Millsap, Powe, Boone, or Lowry. Instead, the 20th pick was used to sweeten up the Jalen Rose trade, which was simply a correction of a previous mistake...and the resulting cap room led to future mistakes. Dumb.
P.J. Tucker didn't get much of a chance to play in the NBA, but when he did play, he showed promise. And after he left for overseas, he actually managed to achieve some measure of success. So the Raptors took exactly the kind of player they were supposed to, only to cut the guy in favour of Luke Jackson.
Ed Davis seems like he's going to be a very good NBA player, and eventually we will get to see him in action. Based on nothing other than college numbers, it looks as if the Raptors made good pick. Although it must be said that the fact that there were 12 teams drafting ahead of them was probably a big factor in them choosing Davis.
In dropping down from #42 to #50, the Raptors may have missed out on a man with a sexy name, Devin Ebanks, and a man with a humourously erroneous name, Tiny Gallon. I'm not so sure that Alabi was a high risk/high reward player...high risk, certainly, but given that he played in the NCAA and didn't post good numbers, it's not likely that he will turn out to be too productive.
Draft Verdict?
In the last ten years, the Raptors have hit on a draft pick only once (maybe twice if Ed Davis turns out be as good as we think). That is a terrible, putrid rate. Some of the middling picks (late teens to early 30s) were okay, but the Raptors ended up cutting/trading away the draftee too early. Some of their second round picks were at least adventurous, but none of them succeeded. Any time the Raptors get into the lottery, there is a very good chance that they will select someone who not is very productive. To make matters even worse, Toronto has also traded away a rather large number of picks and hasn't made many trades to acquire any back - except for the occasional forced trade, such as the trades involving Carter and Bosh. So really...you can't blame good players for avoiding Toronto.
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
Last time we looked at the last ten years of Toronto's draft history. The general conclusion? The Raptors are really bad at drafting productive players (or, if you want to put an optimistic spin on it, the Raptors are excellent at drafting unproductive players). But, as bad as they were, maybe some of those draft choices were the best available options? Let's take an individual look at each draft pick and see if the Raptors could have gotten anything better than they did (you might want to follow along with this spreadsheet).
- 2000: #21 Morris Peterson; #56 DeeAndre Hulett
As a Raptor fan, I gotta love the man. But looking at the numbers, Mo Pete wasn't so good in his first four seasons; he only managed a WP48 of 0.050. At the 21st pick, you would expect there to be some more palatable options than that, but was that the case? While there were 7 players with higher WP48s selected after him, the only truly useful players available were Michael Redd and Eduardo Najera. Overall, Mo Pete wasn't too bad of a pick.
DeeAndre Hulett never played a minute in the NBA, and neither did most of the players selected after him. While Jason Hart eventually played 5289 NBA minutes, he didn't play enough in his first four years to qualify. I'd give the Raptors a pass on this pick.
- 2001: #17 Michael Bradley; #46 (traded)
Michael Bradley was actually a pretty good player in limited minutes. Despite that, he never made much of an impact on the NBA, and after the Raptors cut him in 2004, his NBA career was pretty much over. Instead of Bradley, the Raps could've had Mehmet Okur, Jamaal Tinsley, or Samuel Dalembert. The Raptors didn't do too badly with Bradley - now if only they had had the intelligence to play him more minutes.
The 46th pick was traded. Which was fine, because that year there were no useful players available at that number. So far the Raptors have been pretty good.
- 2002: #20 (traded); #27 Chris Jefferies; #42 (traded)
And so begins the trading of useful draft picks. Kareem Rush was not a productive player - and Chris Jefferies didn't last long enough for us to find out how good he was. Trading down from #20 to #27, the Raptors missed out on the opportunity to draft Tayshaun Prince. Useful players available at #27 included Carlos Boozer, Dan Gadzuric, Luis Scola, and Matt Barnes. Given that the other two players involved in the exchange of these draft picks were Lindsey Hunter and Tracy Murray, I have no choice but to fail this draft decision. Drafting Carlos Boozer or Luis Scola would've been much better than Jefferies.
At #42, Scola and Barnes were still on the board. Yes, the Raptors could've picked up Boozer and Scola in the same draft if they knew what they were doing. And that is why you don't trade away your second round picks: when you hit with them, they have the potential to turn your franchise around.
- 2003: #4 Chris Bosh; #52 Remon Van der Hare
Chris Bosh was a very good fourth pick - accordingly, Arturo ranks him 144 out of 980 draftees. But there were three players available who were even better than Bosh: Wade, Josh Howard, and Luke Walton. Now, keeping in mind that this ranking only considers the first four years, the only player I would think about drafting instead of Bosh would be (of course) Wade. So the Raptors did very well on this one.
Van der Hare never played in the NBA - and no one else drafted after him was useful. Looks like 2003 was a good drafting year.
- 2004: #8 Rafael Araujo; #39 (traded); #47 Pape Sow
Ah, the first monumental Raptor bust of the 21st century! Araujo was such a bad pick that he only managed to last 1585 career minutes. In those minutes, he was very bad (WP48 lower than -0.07). Who could the Raptors have chosen instead? Oh, only Andris Biedrins, Andre Iguodala, Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin, Anderson Varejao, Trevor Ariza, Dorell Wright, Josh Smith, Delonte West, Chris Duhon, Tony Allen, and Jameer Nelson - all above-average (WP48 greater than 0.100) players. It's funny, because the recent development of Bargnani had almost made me forget about Hoffa.
The 39th pick could have been useful - Trevor Ariza and Bernard Robinson were both available. Robinson wasn't all that good, but Ariza certainly was.
Ah, good old Pape. Well, he didn't play enough minutes to get ranked, and he wasn't that productive...but there was nothing after him. Hmmm. Maybe Toronto should have just taken Ariza at the 39th instead of trading down...but they only missed one really decent player, so you can't hold it against them too much. Overall though, 2004 was a bad year.
- 2005: #7 Charlie Villanueva; #11 (traded); #16 Joey Graham; #38 (traded); #41 Roko Ukic; #58 Uros Slokar
Busy draft year for the Raptors - let's start with the pick that had so many "experts" laughing: Villanueva. He actually wasn't that bad of a player - he managed a WP48 of 0.072 - and, as a scorer, was overrated, but the biggest problem with picking Villanueva so low was that...there were so many better players available. How many? Only David Lee, Marcin Gortat, Amir Johnson, Andrew Bynum, Luther Head, Danny Granger, Travis Diener, Jason Maxiell, Monta Ellis, Jarrett Jack, Ersan Ilyasova, and Ronny Turiaf. The Raptors could've at least chosen Granger there instead. This pick gets a D.
With Graham, you were never sure if you were getting "good Joey", the player who rebounded well and attacked the basket for easy shots, or "bad Joey", the player who hoisted up silly jumpers and didn't do much else (maybe the twins were playing tricks on us all?). Over his first four years his WP48 was 0.056. Again, instead of Graham, the Raptors could've had David Lee, Marcin Gortat, Amir Johnson, Luther Head, Danny Granger, Travis Diener, Jason Maxiell, Monta Ellis, Jarrett Jack, Ersan Ilyasova, or Ronny Turiaf. This pick gets a D minus.
Instead of seldomly played Roko Ukic, the Raptors could have had Gortat or Amir Johnson. But Ukic is exactly the kind of pick you want to make in the second round: high risk, high reward. All things considered, not a terrible choice.
Uros Slokar: another high risk, high reward pick. This time it didn't pan out, but again, at least Toronto went for it. There were no useful players selected after Slokar either, so this was an okay pick.
- 2006: #1 Andrea Bargnani; #20 (traded); #35 P.J. Tucker; #56 Edin Bavcic
Everyone should know by now how badly the Raptors did by choosing Bargnani; I've talked about it several times before. In fact, if you've read those posts you'll know that Bargnani is ranked 970/980 draftees on Arturo's list. Instead of Bargnani, the Raptors could have chosen: Rajon Rondo, Renaldo Balkman, Brandon Roy, Paul Millsap, Ronnie Brewer, Leon Powe, Josh Boone, Kyle Lowry, Thabo Sefolosha, Tyrus Thomas, or Shelden Williams. This pick is an F.
Had the Raptors not traded #20, they could've had Rondo, Balkman, Millsap, Powe, Boone, or Lowry. Instead, the 20th pick was used to sweeten up the Jalen Rose trade, which was simply a correction of a previous mistake...and the resulting cap room led to future mistakes. Dumb.
P.J. Tucker didn't get much of a chance to play in the NBA, but when he did play, he showed promise. And after he left for overseas, he actually managed to achieve some measure of success. So the Raptors took exactly the kind of player they were supposed to, only to cut the guy in favour of Luke Jackson.
 |
| As Arturo would say |
Edin Bavcic didn't play - and there was nobody useful picked after him - but again, at least the Raptors were looking for hidden gems
Ah, the year of no picks. Why no picks? Because - years before Colangelo - they needed to get rid of Yogi Stewart and wanted to acquire Lamond Murray and John Wallace. Who could they have picked at #22? Rudy Fernandez, Carl Landry, Marc Gasol, Ramon Sessions, and Jared Dudley. At #52, they still could have had Sessions. Lesson? Don't trade away your picks.
Really? T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and the 17th pick for Jermaine O'Neal? The only saving grace of the trade was the cap room that it created, and BC did not use it wisely. The returns are still pretty early, but at #17, the Raptors could have had Luc Mbah a Moute, Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, Bill Walker, J.J. Hickson, Mario Chalmers, Courtney Lee, Goran Dragic, Ryan Anderson, and Sonny Weems. I'd take any of those players over Jermaine O'Neal, and I'd have been happy to keep T.J. Ford for a bit longer, thank you very much.
Instead of Jawai, Toronto could have had Walker or Dragic. Not too bad, and Jawai was an okay gamble. Those same two players were still available at #45 as well.
Another lottery pick, another poor choice. DeRozan didn't have good numbers coming out of college, and his first year wasn't very good (nor was his preseason this year). DeRozan is shaping up to be your classic Raptors lottery pick bust. Who could the Raptors have had instead? DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, Jon Brockman, Chase Budinger, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, Jeff Pendergraph, Taj Gibson, Omri Casspi, or Darren Collison - just to name the above average players. It'll be a few more years before we can fully evaluate this draft class, but it's looking very likely that the Raptors made another poor choice.
Picks #39 and #51 were traded. Remember what I said about trading draft picks? Imagine Jerebko, Budinger, Marcus Thornton, or A.J. Price on the team. At least the Raptors got Carlos Delfino out of it...er, I mean, Amir Johnson (not bad, actually, although I would've preferred to have kept Delfino).
- 2007: #22 (traded); #52 (traded)
Ah, the year of no picks. Why no picks? Because - years before Colangelo - they needed to get rid of Yogi Stewart and wanted to acquire Lamond Murray and John Wallace. Who could they have picked at #22? Rudy Fernandez, Carl Landry, Marc Gasol, Ramon Sessions, and Jared Dudley. At #52, they still could have had Sessions. Lesson? Don't trade away your picks.
- 2008: #17 (traded); #41 Nathan Jawai; #45 (traded)
Really? T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and the 17th pick for Jermaine O'Neal? The only saving grace of the trade was the cap room that it created, and BC did not use it wisely. The returns are still pretty early, but at #17, the Raptors could have had Luc Mbah a Moute, Serge Ibaka, DeAndre Jordan, Bill Walker, J.J. Hickson, Mario Chalmers, Courtney Lee, Goran Dragic, Ryan Anderson, and Sonny Weems. I'd take any of those players over Jermaine O'Neal, and I'd have been happy to keep T.J. Ford for a bit longer, thank you very much.
Instead of Jawai, Toronto could have had Walker or Dragic. Not too bad, and Jawai was an okay gamble. Those same two players were still available at #45 as well.
- 2009: #9 DeMar DeRozan; #39 (traded); #51 (traded)
Another lottery pick, another poor choice. DeRozan didn't have good numbers coming out of college, and his first year wasn't very good (nor was his preseason this year). DeRozan is shaping up to be your classic Raptors lottery pick bust. Who could the Raptors have had instead? DeJuan Blair, Ty Lawson, Jon Brockman, Chase Budinger, Rodrigue Beaubois, Jonas Jerebko, Austin Daye, Jeff Pendergraph, Taj Gibson, Omri Casspi, or Darren Collison - just to name the above average players. It'll be a few more years before we can fully evaluate this draft class, but it's looking very likely that the Raptors made another poor choice.
Picks #39 and #51 were traded. Remember what I said about trading draft picks? Imagine Jerebko, Budinger, Marcus Thornton, or A.J. Price on the team. At least the Raptors got Carlos Delfino out of it...er, I mean, Amir Johnson (not bad, actually, although I would've preferred to have kept Delfino).
- 2010: #13 Ed Davis; #42 (traded), #50 Solomon Alabi
Ed Davis seems like he's going to be a very good NBA player, and eventually we will get to see him in action. Based on nothing other than college numbers, it looks as if the Raptors made good pick. Although it must be said that the fact that there were 12 teams drafting ahead of them was probably a big factor in them choosing Davis.
In dropping down from #42 to #50, the Raptors may have missed out on a man with a sexy name, Devin Ebanks, and a man with a humourously erroneous name, Tiny Gallon. I'm not so sure that Alabi was a high risk/high reward player...high risk, certainly, but given that he played in the NCAA and didn't post good numbers, it's not likely that he will turn out to be too productive.
Draft Verdict?
In the last ten years, the Raptors have hit on a draft pick only once (maybe twice if Ed Davis turns out be as good as we think). That is a terrible, putrid rate. Some of the middling picks (late teens to early 30s) were okay, but the Raptors ended up cutting/trading away the draftee too early. Some of their second round picks were at least adventurous, but none of them succeeded. Any time the Raptors get into the lottery, there is a very good chance that they will select someone who not is very productive. To make matters even worse, Toronto has also traded away a rather large number of picks and hasn't made many trades to acquire any back - except for the occasional forced trade, such as the trades involving Carter and Bosh. So really...you can't blame good players for avoiding Toronto.
Next week I'll post Week 1 team stats (as reader Mattt points out, the Raptors are at 0.500 at the moment!), as well as the final part of this AGS front office audit and suggestions for turning the franchise around.
- Devin
- All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
- Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
- The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
- Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.
- All of the draft data is the work of Arturo Galletti
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Updates: Season and Team Projections
This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
I have made a few slight changes to both the season predictions and the Raptors prediction; in the case of the Raptors, it looks like Jay Triano is going to play Reggie Evans as much as he did in the preseason, and, due to his struggles, Calderon will be playing less. I adjusted the numbers accordingly and the Raptors improve by...less than one win (although it rounds up). With my season numbers, I knocked off 8 wins to make sure all the league wins added up to 1230. Previously, I was happy with close enough, but...might as well make it more realistic. While all of the previous wins were calculated using the numbers, this knocking off business was done rather subjectively. So here are the last numbers:
Eastern Conference:
Western Conference:
The spreadsheet with the updated projections for the Raptors has been automatically updated, but I'll repost it:
In addition to continuing the front office audit, I'll be doing weekly posts on the Raptors' performance during the season using Andres' automated wins produced numbers.
- Devin
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
I have made a few slight changes to both the season predictions and the Raptors prediction; in the case of the Raptors, it looks like Jay Triano is going to play Reggie Evans as much as he did in the preseason, and, due to his struggles, Calderon will be playing less. I adjusted the numbers accordingly and the Raptors improve by...less than one win (although it rounds up). With my season numbers, I knocked off 8 wins to make sure all the league wins added up to 1230. Previously, I was happy with close enough, but...might as well make it more realistic. While all of the previous wins were calculated using the numbers, this knocking off business was done rather subjectively. So here are the last numbers:
Eastern Conference:
- Miami Heat (65-17)
- Chicago Bulls (55-27)
- Orlando Magic (54-28)
- Boston Celtics (53-29)
- Atlanta Hawks (46-36)
- Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)
- New Jersey Nets (41-41)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (39-43)
- New York Knicks (38-44)
- Charlotte Bobcats (33-49)
- Detroit Pistons (29-53)
- Toronto Raptors (28-54)
- Indiana Pacers (26-56)
- Philadelphia 76ers (19-63)
- Washington Wizards (10-72)
Western Conference:
- Portland Trailblazers (61-21)
- San Antonio Spurs (58-24)
- Los Angeles Lakers (56-26)
- Golden State Warriors (48-34)
- Dallas Mavericks (47-35)
- Denver Nuggets (45-37)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (44-38)
- Phoenix Suns (44-38)
- Sacramento Kings (43-39)
- New Orleans Hornets (43-39)
- Houston Rockets (42-40)
- Utah Jazz (42-40)
- Memphis Grizzlies (29-53)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (26-56)
- Los Angeles Clippers (22-60)
The spreadsheet with the updated projections for the Raptors has been automatically updated, but I'll repost it:
In addition to continuing the front office audit, I'll be doing weekly posts on the Raptors' performance during the season using Andres' automated wins produced numbers.
- Devin
- All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
- Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
- The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
- Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.
- All of the draft data is the work of Arturo Galletti
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
AGS for Front Offices Audit: Toronto Raptors (Part 1:Draft history)
This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
As promised, let's take a look at the Raptors' management plan. To start, I have been analyzing the organizational philosophy of the Raptors, and after hours of work, I have come up with an image that summarizes my findings:
There are certainly more than a few obstacles for the Raptors to overcome in order for them to simply win a playoff series, let alone a championship. So, using Arturo's standards for evaluating front offices - previously employed by Andres to evaluate the Nuggets front office - let's see what the Raptors are doing well and where they can improve.
1) Get an advanced stats model to gain an edge over other teams. Make sure this model correlates with winning.
Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo seems to be skeptical about stats, and, as far as I am aware, does not have any dedicated statistical analysts working for the team. While he claims to have read parts of The Wages of Wins, he clearly doesn't buy into Wins Produced or he wouldn't have made a lot of the moves has has (Bargnani, Turkoglu, etc). So that's a fail.
2) Bolster your roster with draft picks rather than free agency.
3) Flip scorers for draft picks (see 2).
4) Use later picks on high risk/reward players for a cheaper price.
Let's take a look at what happened to all the draft picks the Raptors have had since 2000. Although Colangelo has only been around since 2006, I think we should also look at how the Raptors did BBC (before Bryan Colangelo), so let's look at the last 10 years of Raptors drafting:
That list doesn't look too good - but we are not done yet. We also have to consider that some of those picks were immediately traded to other teams:
And what about the draft picks that Toronto traded away:
And what about future draft picks they've acquired:
Phew! That was a lot of work. By the way, these last two lists may not be complete - it turns out that it's actually quite difficult to find out what happened to all the draft picks that the Raptors have acquired or traded away over the years (my best resource was, unsurprisingly, Wikipedia). Adding everything above together, how successful has Toronto been with its picks? To evaluate drafted players, we'll turn to Arturo's handy Draft Score spreadsheet, which ranks the past 30 years of draft picks. Since the total number of players drafted is 980, each draftee can be expressed as a percentage (1-n/980). Please note: Arturo's draft numbers are based only on the first four years of a player's career (their rookie contract) and includes only those players who managed to play at least 1600 minutes over four years (400 minutes a year). Numbers for players drafted after 2006 are calculated using Andres Alvarez's Automated Wins Produced.
If you'd rather view this spreadsheet as a webpage, click here.
Given that list, what can we say about the Raptors' recent draft history? Abysmal. Of the 15 retained draftees that could have played four seasons by now, only six were even ranked (ie: nine players didn't even manage to play 400 minutes/season in their first four seasons). The six rankable players - including Chris Bosh - had an average ranking of 517/980 (48%). Take out Bosh (144), and the remaining five players had an average rank of 585/980 (40%). The Raptors simply do not draft well.
Toronto has been the team trading the draft picks in order to get...mostly unproductive bench players. The Raptors fail #2 and #3 big time. Up until 2006 (the first year with Colangelo at the helm), the Raptors were doing okay on #4, but since then, they haven't had any second round picks to use, because they traded them away (not entirely Colangelo's fault, as many of the transactions happened years ago). But because they demonstrated that they have no understanding of the value of second round draft picks, I'm giving them a fail there too.
This post is getting far too long, so I'm going to split it into at least two parts. In the next part, I want to review individual draftees and then see how the Raptors measure up to the last three aspects of Arturo's requirements.
- Devin
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
As promised, let's take a look at the Raptors' management plan. To start, I have been analyzing the organizational philosophy of the Raptors, and after hours of work, I have come up with an image that summarizes my findings:
| Hey - I never said I was an artist |
1) Get an advanced stats model to gain an edge over other teams. Make sure this model correlates with winning.
Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo seems to be skeptical about stats, and, as far as I am aware, does not have any dedicated statistical analysts working for the team. While he claims to have read parts of The Wages of Wins, he clearly doesn't buy into Wins Produced or he wouldn't have made a lot of the moves has has (Bargnani, Turkoglu, etc). So that's a fail.
2) Bolster your roster with draft picks rather than free agency.
3) Flip scorers for draft picks (see 2).
4) Use later picks on high risk/reward players for a cheaper price.
Let's take a look at what happened to all the draft picks the Raptors have had since 2000. Although Colangelo has only been around since 2006, I think we should also look at how the Raptors did BBC (before Bryan Colangelo), so let's look at the last 10 years of Raptors drafting:
- 2000: Morris Peterson (21st), DeeAndre Hulett (46st)
- 2001: Michael Bradley (17th)
- 2002: Kareem Rush (20th)
- 2003: Chris Bosh (4th), Remon Van der Hare (52nd)
- 2004: Rafael Araujo (8th), Albert Miralles (39th)
- 2005: Charlie Villanueva (7th), Joey Graham (16th), Roko Ukic (41st), Uros Slokar (58th)
- 2006: Andrea Bargnani (1st), P.J. Tucker (35th), Edin Bavcic (56th)
- 2007: none
- 2008: Roy Hibbert (17th)
- 2009: DeMar DeRozan (9th)
- 2010: Ed Davis (13th)
That list doesn't look too good - but we are not done yet. We also have to consider that some of those picks were immediately traded to other teams:
- Kareem Rush, along with Tracy Murray, and a 2003 draft pick (Luke Walton), to the Lakers for Lindsey Hunter, Chris Jeffries, and a 2003 draft pick (Ramon Van de Hare)
- Roy Hibbert, along with T.J. Ford, Rasho Nesterovic, and Maceo Baston, to Indiana for Jermaine O'Neal and Nathan Jawai
- Acquired Pape Sow and a 2005 draft pick (Uros Slokar) from the Miami Heat for a 2004 draft pick (Albert Miralles)
And what about the draft picks that Toronto traded away:
- 2001 draft pick (Ousmane Cisse), along with Kevin Willis, Alex Radojevic, and Garth Joseph, to the Nuggets for Keon Clark, Tracy Murray, and Mamadou N'Diaye
- 2002 draft pick (Jason Jennings), along with Charles Oakley, to the Bulls for Brian Skinner
- 2005 draft pick (Fran Vasquez), along with Corliss Williamson, Tyrone Corbin, and Kornel David, to the Kings for Jerome Williams and Eric Montross
- 2005 draft pick (Travis Diener), along with Mengke Bateer and Remon Van der Hare, to the Magic for Robert Archibald and a 2005 draft pick (Roko Ukic)
- 2006 draft pick (Renaldo Balkman), along with Jalen Rose, to the Knicks for Antonio Davis
- 2007 draft pick (Jared Dudley), along with Michael Stewart, to the Cavs for Lamond Murray and a 2004 draft pick (Albert Miralles)
- 2007 draft pick (Taurean Green) to Portland for John Wallace
- 2008 draft pick (Goran Dragic) to the Spurs for the rights to Giorgos Printezis
- 2009 draft pick (Jack McClinton), along with Matt Bonner and Eric Williams, to the Spurs for Rasho Nesterovic
- 2009 draft pick (Jonas Jerebko) to the Pistons for Carlos Delfino
- 2010 draft pick (Da'Sean Butler) to the Heat due to the Shawn Marion trade
- 2011 second round draft pick to the Pistons for Carlos Delfino
- 2013 second round draft pick to the Mavs (to acquire Slomon Alabi)
- 2014 second round draft pick to the Celtics (to acquire Patrick O'Bryant)
- 2015 second round draft pick to the Rockets (to acquire David Andersen)
- 2016 second round draft pick to the Grizzlies (to acquire Turkoglu)
And what about future draft picks they've acquired:
- 2011 first round draft pick from Miami (Chris Bosh trade)
- 2015 second round draft pick (51-55 only) from the Clippers for Hassan Adams
Phew! That was a lot of work. By the way, these last two lists may not be complete - it turns out that it's actually quite difficult to find out what happened to all the draft picks that the Raptors have acquired or traded away over the years (my best resource was, unsurprisingly, Wikipedia). Adding everything above together, how successful has Toronto been with its picks? To evaluate drafted players, we'll turn to Arturo's handy Draft Score spreadsheet, which ranks the past 30 years of draft picks. Since the total number of players drafted is 980, each draftee can be expressed as a percentage (1-n/980). Please note: Arturo's draft numbers are based only on the first four years of a player's career (their rookie contract) and includes only those players who managed to play at least 1600 minutes over four years (400 minutes a year). Numbers for players drafted after 2006 are calculated using Andres Alvarez's Automated Wins Produced.
If you'd rather view this spreadsheet as a webpage, click here.
Given that list, what can we say about the Raptors' recent draft history? Abysmal. Of the 15 retained draftees that could have played four seasons by now, only six were even ranked (ie: nine players didn't even manage to play 400 minutes/season in their first four seasons). The six rankable players - including Chris Bosh - had an average ranking of 517/980 (48%). Take out Bosh (144), and the remaining five players had an average rank of 585/980 (40%). The Raptors simply do not draft well.
Toronto has been the team trading the draft picks in order to get...mostly unproductive bench players. The Raptors fail #2 and #3 big time. Up until 2006 (the first year with Colangelo at the helm), the Raptors were doing okay on #4, but since then, they haven't had any second round picks to use, because they traded them away (not entirely Colangelo's fault, as many of the transactions happened years ago). But because they demonstrated that they have no understanding of the value of second round draft picks, I'm giving them a fail there too.
This post is getting far too long, so I'm going to split it into at least two parts. In the next part, I want to review individual draftees and then see how the Raptors measure up to the last three aspects of Arturo's requirements.
- Devin
- All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
- Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
- The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
- Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.
- All of the draft data is the work of Arturo Galletti
Monday, October 25, 2010
David Berri Interview with RaptorsHQ
Go on over to RaptorsHQ to see what David Berri, author of The Wages of Wins and Stumbling on Wins has to say about several Raptors-related issues, including everyone's favourite player, Andrea Bargnani.
Unsurprisingly, Mr. Berri and I have very similar opinions, but it's a good read nonetheless - particularly if you are interested in the history of Wins Produced.
- Devin.
Unsurprisingly, Mr. Berri and I have very similar opinions, but it's a good read nonetheless - particularly if you are interested in the history of Wins Produced.
- Devin.
Updated 2010-11 Team Projection
This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
It has come to my attention that some readers are still looking at the projection I made several months ago and believe that is current. That is not the case.
The Raptors - as currently constructed - are going to fare a bit worse this season. Although I have revealed my predicted win totals a couple of times in the past week or so, I haven't posted a detailed account. So here it is, the updated team numbers for the coming season:
So the Raptors - barring significant trades or injuries - stand to win around 27 games this season. Unless, of course, some Raptors play like they did during the preseason. But previous seasons are a better predictor of player productivity than preseason numbers, so the above spreadsheet is a more reliable prediction than anything based on preseason numbers.
Some factors that might affect these predictions:
- Devin.
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
It has come to my attention that some readers are still looking at the projection I made several months ago and believe that is current. That is not the case.
The Raptors - as currently constructed - are going to fare a bit worse this season. Although I have revealed my predicted win totals a couple of times in the past week or so, I haven't posted a detailed account. So here it is, the updated team numbers for the coming season:
So the Raptors - barring significant trades or injuries - stand to win around 27 games this season. Unless, of course, some Raptors play like they did during the preseason. But previous seasons are a better predictor of player productivity than preseason numbers, so the above spreadsheet is a more reliable prediction than anything based on preseason numbers.
Some factors that might affect these predictions:
- Based on last year's numbers, I have Reggie Evans down for only 762 minutes. If Evans gets more playing time this year (and it looks like he might), the Raptors will win more games
- Calderon has a projected WP48 of about 0.180. If he continues to struggle like last year (and this preseason), the Raptors will lose more games
- Barbosa might have a better WP48 this season (then again, he might not). His production has been rather unstable over his career, and the Raptors win totals could decrease by as many as 2 wins or increase by as many as 3 wins depending on his production.
- Devin.
- All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
- Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
- The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
- Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Raptors Preseason Review #4 (of 4)
This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
After reviews #1, #2, and #3, here are how the preseason numbers ended up:
I've added some fancy colours to the per 48 minute columns - but please note that the colours are based on totals only and are not adjusted by position. For example: Bargnani doesn't fare so poorly in rebounding when compared to the team as a whole (he's yellow), but compare him to other centres and he'd be terrible (red). Anyways, how are the stats different from the last time we checked in?
Here are my thoughts about the last two games, as well as the preseason as a whole:
There are other stories in those numbers, but those were the ones that spoke to me the most. If you spot any other interesting tales, let me (and others) know in the comments.
- Devin
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.
After reviews #1, #2, and #3, here are how the preseason numbers ended up:
I've added some fancy colours to the per 48 minute columns - but please note that the colours are based on totals only and are not adjusted by position. For example: Bargnani doesn't fare so poorly in rebounding when compared to the team as a whole (he's yellow), but compare him to other centres and he'd be terrible (red). Anyways, how are the stats different from the last time we checked in?
Here are my thoughts about the last two games, as well as the preseason as a whole:
- Raptors' preseason MVP: Jarrett Jack. Runners-up: Dorsey, Kleiza, and Evans
- Raptors' preseason LVP: Andrea Bustiani. Runners-up: Calderon and DeRozan
- Of the players who played significant minutes, Kleiza and Johnson lowered their EWP48s (read: got worse) the most over the last two games
- Barbosa and Evans raised their EWP48s (read: improved) the most over the last two games
- Calderon, Banks, Alabi, and Bargnani ended up producing a negative number of wins
- Calderon watch: his best game of the preseason was against the Knicks (EWP48 0.397 and EWP 0.132)
- Calderon only did one thing well: rack up assists. But his shooting was terrible
- For another guy who's supposed to be good at shooting...Bargnani didn't shoot well at all
- Bargnani moved "up" to 11th least productive in the league during the preseason on a per-minute basis (according to Arturo). In terms of total wins produced, Bargani is 4th last, behind Marcus Thornton (2nd year player), Sharron Collins (rookie), and Kenny Hasbrouck (rookie). So...is Bargnani a bust yet?
- Bargnani's only game in the black this preseason was the second game against the Suns - every other game he was negative
- Bargnani accumulated a Win Score of exactly 0 in 216 minutes
- I'd prefer David Andersen to Bargnani - even excluding Bargnani's massive contract. Andersen was better in every area, except blocks and fouls
- Not news: Reggie Evans rebounds like a madman
- News: Joey Dorsey out-rebounded the madman
- Julian Wright was pretty good in limited minutes. He benefited from playing most of his time at SF
- Going by these numbers, the team's bigs are probably going to have foul trouble most games. Maybe it's time to acquire a decent centre?
There are other stories in those numbers, but those were the ones that spoke to me the most. If you spot any other interesting tales, let me (and others) know in the comments.
- Devin
- All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
- Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
- The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
- Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.
Saturday, October 23, 2010
2010-2011 Season Predictions
Rob O'Malley of Roblog decided that the writers of the Wages of Wins network should all participate in a contest to see who is the best at predicting the outcome of the 2010-2011 NBA season. Andres took the ball and created a web page that will keep everyone's predictions in a public place. Here are my picks (unless rosters change significantly in the next couple of days):
Eastern Conference:
Many of the other Wages of Wins Network writers have already mentioned how good the Bulls, the Nets, and the Cavs are likely to be, so these teams didn't surprise me (but might surprise casual fans).
If the seeding ends up like this, we'll get to see a Heat-Cavs matchup in the first round (fun!), as the Cavs would make the 8th seed despite being under .500.
Western Conference:
Surprise teams? Portland, Golden State, and the Kings are going to be good, but a lot of other WoWN writers have already pointed them out. To me, the Spurs remaining so good was news, as was the crapitude of the Grizzlies. With Krstic and Green hurting their team, I don't see the Thunder doing as well as last year.
Some fun playoff matchups in the West would be: a Portland-Suns rematch, a "youth" vs "experience" matchup in Spurs-Thunder, and a hopefully interesting renewal of the Mavs-Warriors rivalry. Interesting that of the 15 Western Conference teams, I have 12 finishing above .500. This year (barring injuries and trades...which, come on, almost never happen) there will be a logjam in the West.
NBA Playoffs:
Media Awards:
MVP:
Rookie of the Year:
Defensive Player of the Year:
6th Man Award:
Most Improved Player:
Coach of the Year:
Executive of the Year:
Wins Produced Awards:
MVP:
Rookie of the Year:
Sixth Man Award:
Most Improved Player:
At the end of the regular season, I'll be able to look back and see what I missed (which I'm sure will be plenty). Regardless of how I fare, one thing's for sure: my predictions are going to be a lot better than my ESPN fantasy team (never miss the start of a draft, because the computer will pick for you; I'm stuck with Kobe, Carmelo, Aaron Brooks, Joe Johnson, and Danny Granger in a Win Score league).
- Devin.
Eastern Conference:
- Miami Heat (68-14)
- Chicago Bulls (56-26)
- Orlando Magic (54-28)
- Boston Celtics (53-29)
- Atlanta Hawks (46-36)
- Milwaukee Bucks (44-30)
- New Jersey Nets (43-39)
- Cleveland Cavaliers (39-43)
- New York Knicks (38-44)
- Charlotte Bobcats (33-49)
- Detroit Pistons (29-53)
- Toronto Raptors (27-55)
- Indiana Pacers (27-55)
- Philadelphia 76ers (19-63)
- Washington Wizards (10-72)
Many of the other Wages of Wins Network writers have already mentioned how good the Bulls, the Nets, and the Cavs are likely to be, so these teams didn't surprise me (but might surprise casual fans).
If the seeding ends up like this, we'll get to see a Heat-Cavs matchup in the first round (fun!), as the Cavs would make the 8th seed despite being under .500.
Western Conference:
- Portland Trailblazers (62-20)
- San Antonio Spurs (59-23)
- Los Angeles Lakers (56-26)
- Golden State Warriors (48-34)
- Dallas Mavericks (47-35)
- Denver Nuggets (45-37)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (44-38)
- Phoenix Suns (44-38)
- Sacramento Kings (43-39)
- New Orleans Hornets (43-39)
- Houston Rockets (42-40)
- Utah Jazz (42-40)
- Memphis Grizzlies (29-53)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (26-56)
- Los Angeles Clippers (22-60)
Surprise teams? Portland, Golden State, and the Kings are going to be good, but a lot of other WoWN writers have already pointed them out. To me, the Spurs remaining so good was news, as was the crapitude of the Grizzlies. With Krstic and Green hurting their team, I don't see the Thunder doing as well as last year.
Some fun playoff matchups in the West would be: a Portland-Suns rematch, a "youth" vs "experience" matchup in Spurs-Thunder, and a hopefully interesting renewal of the Mavs-Warriors rivalry. Interesting that of the 15 Western Conference teams, I have 12 finishing above .500. This year (barring injuries and trades...which, come on, almost never happen) there will be a logjam in the West.
NBA Playoffs:
- Eastern Conference Finalists: Miami Heat, Chicago Bulls
- Western Conference Finalists: Portland Trailblazers, Los Angeles Lakers
- NBA Champions: Miami Heat
Media Awards:
MVP:
- Kevin Durant
- Dwight Howard
- Lebron James
Rookie of the Year:
- Blake Griffin
- DeMarcus Cousins
- John Wall
Defensive Player of the Year:
- Dwight Howard
- Rajon Rondo
- Thabo Sefolosha
6th Man Award:
- Udonis Haslem
- Reggie Williams
- Matt Barnes
Most Improved Player:
- Kevin Love
- DeJuan Blair
- Stephen Curry
Coach of the Year:
- Tom Thibideau (Bulls)
- Keith Smart (Warriors)
- Paul Westphal (Kings)
Executive of the Year:
- Pat Riley (Miami)
- Larry Riley (Golden State)
- Billy King (New Jersey)
Wins Produced Awards:
MVP:
- Lebron James
- Dwight Howard
- Kevin Durant
Rookie of the Year:
- Blake Griffin
- DeMarcus Cousins
- Ed Davis
Sixth Man Award:
- Lamar Odom
- Chris Andersen
- DeJuan Blair
Most Improved Player:
- Kevin Love
- DeJuan Blair
- Chris Paul
At the end of the regular season, I'll be able to look back and see what I missed (which I'm sure will be plenty). Regardless of how I fare, one thing's for sure: my predictions are going to be a lot better than my ESPN fantasy team (never miss the start of a draft, because the computer will pick for you; I'm stuck with Kobe, Carmelo, Aaron Brooks, Joe Johnson, and Danny Granger in a Win Score league).
- Devin.
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Arturo's preseason WP for all players
This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
I've been posting preseason EWP - that's Estimated Wins Produced - numbers for Raptors players in my Preseason Reviews, but today Arturo Galletti posted WP - the real Wins Produced - numbers for every player in the league as of 10/19!
Please note that there are differences between the numbers I've posted and Arturo's numbers - there are two reasons for this. One, EWP is exactly what it claims to be: an estimate. EWP uses Win Score to estimate WP numbers. And two, Arturo uses simple positions in his calculations. That means that players who play multiple positions are assigned to one position only, which makes the calculations slightly inaccurate. But Arturo didn't have the time to adjust hundreds of players' positions! So both numbers - his and mine - are slightly off. But his are certainly more accurate for players who have only played one position all preseason long.
I'd like to point out a few observations from Arturo's league-wide WP numbers:
Go check out the list, and while you're there, take a look at all the other stuff Arturo has on his great site.
- Devin
Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)
I've been posting preseason EWP - that's Estimated Wins Produced - numbers for Raptors players in my Preseason Reviews, but today Arturo Galletti posted WP - the real Wins Produced - numbers for every player in the league as of 10/19!
Please note that there are differences between the numbers I've posted and Arturo's numbers - there are two reasons for this. One, EWP is exactly what it claims to be: an estimate. EWP uses Win Score to estimate WP numbers. And two, Arturo uses simple positions in his calculations. That means that players who play multiple positions are assigned to one position only, which makes the calculations slightly inaccurate. But Arturo didn't have the time to adjust hundreds of players' positions! So both numbers - his and mine - are slightly off. But his are certainly more accurate for players who have only played one position all preseason long.
I'd like to point out a few observations from Arturo's league-wide WP numbers:
- Blake Griffin is destroying the league - making it even more obvious that Bargnani is a bust
- Kleiza (9th), Jack (11th), and Johnson (24th) are in the top 25 for players who have played at least 60 minutes
- Dorsey (6th) and Wright (13th) are in the top 15 for players who haven't played at least 60 minutes
- Bargnani is 12th among players who have played at least 60 minutes....12th last, that is. Hey, at least he's better than unproductive ex-Raptor Jason Kapono.
Go check out the list, and while you're there, take a look at all the other stuff Arturo has on his great site.
- Devin
- All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
- Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
- The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
- Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)