Raptors Preseason Review #4 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)

For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.


After reviews #1, #2, and #3, here are how the preseason numbers ended up:



I've added some fancy colours to the per 48 minute columns - but please note that the colours are based on totals only and are not adjusted by position. For example: Bargnani doesn't fare so poorly in rebounding when compared to the team as a whole (he's yellow), but compare him to other centres and he'd be terrible (red). Anyways, how are the stats different from the last time we checked in?



Here are my thoughts about the last two games, as well as the preseason as a whole:

• Raptors' preseason MVP: Jarrett Jack. Runners-up: Dorsey, Kleiza, and Evans
• Raptors' preseason LVP: Andrea Bustiani. Runners-up: Calderon and DeRozan
• Of the players who played significant minutes, Kleiza and Johnson lowered their EWP48s (read: got worse) the most over the last two games
• Barbosa and Evans raised their EWP48s (read: improved) the most over the last two games
• Calderon, Banks, Alabi, and Bargnani ended up producing a negative number of wins
• Calderon watch: his best game of the preseason was against the Knicks (EWP48 0.397 and EWP 0.132)
• Calderon only did one thing well: rack up assists. But his shooting was terrible
• For another guy who's supposed to be good at shooting...Bargnani didn't shoot well at all
• Bargnani moved "up" to 11th least productive in the league during the preseason on a per-minute basis (according to Arturo). In terms of total wins produced, Bargani is 4th last, behind Marcus Thornton (2nd year player), Sharron Collins (rookie), and Kenny Hasbrouck (rookie). So...is Bargnani a bust yet?
• Bargnani's only game in the black this preseason was the second game against the Suns - every other game he was negative
• Bargnani accumulated a Win Score of exactly 0 in 216 minutes
• I'd prefer David Andersen to Bargnani - even excluding Bargnani's massive contract. Andersen was better in every area, except blocks and fouls
• Not news: Reggie Evans rebounds like a madman
• News: Joey Dorsey out-rebounded the madman
• Julian Wright was pretty good in limited minutes. He benefited from playing most of his time at SF
• Going by these numbers, the team's bigs are probably going to have foul trouble most games. Maybe it's time to acquire a decent centre?

There are other stories in those numbers, but those were the ones that spoke to me the most. If you spot any other interesting tales, let me (and others) know in the comments.

 - Devin

• All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
• Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
• The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
• Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.

Raptors Preseason Review #3 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)


Here are what the team numbers look like after six (of eight) preseason games:



And here is how the numbers have changed since the last review:



Here are my thoughts about the last two games (against familiar opponents):

• We're still seeing a lot of regression to the norm, particularly for players who haven't played many minutes (Alabi, Wright, Banks, Dorsey, and Dupree)
• Kleiza, Jack, and Dorsey continue to produce at excellent levels, and in fact improved upon their already excellent per-minute production
• Evans and Johnson have gotten themselves out of the holes they dug in the first four games. Both are now approaching their expected WP48s for the coming season
• Barbosa, Weems, and DeRozan have all seen a decline in production, mostly due to poor shooting from the field
• Playing against the Suns for the second time, Bargnani had his first positive contribution: EWP48 0.258 and EWP 0.134
• Unfortunately, even including that game, Bargnani has almost caused one whole loss (EWP -0.919) in only six games (yikes)
• Calderon watch - he had his best game of the preseason against the Suns: EWP48 0.276 and EWP 0.121
• Calderon continues to slowly improve his per-minute production, but is still a negative contributor at the moment
• Jack and Kleiza have produced more than one win apiece. Together these two players have been responsible for about 69% of the team's wins.
• Amir Johnson had a huge game against the Suns: EWP48 0.781 and EWP 0.407
• David Andersen is a rich man's Andrea Bargnani - he shoots better and rebounds better
• The Suns have been out-rebounded by the Raptors twice; with Amaré gone, their lack of a quality big man is apparent
• Last review I forgot to mention Jrue Holiday's huge game against the Raptors: a triple-double, EWP48 0.612 and EWP 0.587. Too bad for him he only got help from Evan Turner and Jodie Meeks

Final observation for this installment: the Raptors EWP totals add up to 3.13 wins, and after six games their record is 3 wins and 3 losses. Who knew that Wins Produced was so good at explaining player productivity in NBA games?

 - Devin

• All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
• Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
• The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
• Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.

Raptors Preseason Review #2 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses) 

Here are the Raptors' numbers after four (of eight) preseason games:



As you can see, there have been a few changes in the team rankings. How have things changed?



Looking at the numbers, here are my thoughts:

• Notice the general trend of players with larger EWP48s becoming less productive, and the players with highly negative WP48s becoming more productive? That's regression to the mean. The players at the top were performing abnormally well, and the players at the bottom were performing abnormally poorly; it was only a matter of time before things normalized
• Productive players who played poorly over the last two games: Weems, DeRozan, Kleiza, and Dorsey
• Productive players who have stayed productive: Jack
• Unproductive players who continued to play poorly: Bargnani and Calderon
• Unproductive players who were productive: Evans, Dupree, Barbosa, Wright
• Jack had a huge game against the 76ers: EWP48 0.824, EWP 0.566
• Jack had a terrible game against the Bulls: EWP -0.359, EWP -0.195
• Kleiza had a terrible game against the 76ers: EWP -0.345, EWP -0.129
• Bargnani's best game so far: v. Bulls,  EWP -0.074, EWP -0.040
• Calderon's best game so far: v. Bulls,  EWP 0.001, EWP 0.000
• The last two games have been a better indication of how things are going to go during the regular season, because the Bulls will be a good team and the 76ers are going to be bad

Nothing is too far out of the ordinary for the Raptors so far, apart from the play of Jose Calderon. If he plays like this during the regular season, the Raptors are going to struggle to break 20 wins.

That's right - 20.

 - Devin

• All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
• Shooting data by location are from Hoopdata
• The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
• Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.

Preseason: Raptors v Bulls

I love the little factoid Doug Smith dropped today after the Raptors lost their preseason game against the Bulls:

Oh, had Tuesday's game in Chicago been a regular season affair, you would have witnessed history, had you witnessed the game.
The 22 rebounds collared by the collection of Rodmanesque Raptors represent the fewest in any game ever played by Toronto.
The low for games that count is 24, set one night in February, 1998 against Miami.

When Bargnani is your starting centre, your team will get outrebounded - unless you have Dennis Rodman playing beside him, in which case you might break even (and yes, Bargnani didn't start the game, but he played the most minutes of anyone at any position). This will be a season-long trend unless the Raptors can replace Bargnani with a centre who at least rebounds as well as an average PF.

By the way, the preseason spreadsheet will be updated every time I input new data, so its numbers no longer match the text I included in the last preseason review - in case anyone freaks out.

 - Devin.

Raptors Preseason Review #1 (of 4)

This article may use several advanced stats. All of these are based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.


* Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)


After two preseason games (or 25% of the preseason...season), the Raptors stats look this:


If you're too lazy to look at the spreadsheet, here are the players in order of most productive (by EWP48) to least productive:

1. Linas Kleiza, EWP48 0.725 (0.649 EWP)
2. Joey Dorsey, EWP48 0.656 (0.369 EWP)
3. Solomon Alabi, EWP48 0.651 (0.109 EWP)
4. Jarrett Jack, EWP48 0.406 (0.372 EWP)
5. Sonny Weems, EWP48 0.136 (0.125 EWP)
6. Amir Johnson, EWP48 0.107 (0.067 EWP)
7. DeMar DeRozan, EWP48 0.095 (0.099 EWP)
8. Marcus Banks, EWP48 0.025 (0.006 EWP)
9. Leandro Barbosa, EWP48 -0.040 (-0.031 EWP)
10. Julian Wright, EWP48 -0.056 (-0.016 EWP)
11. Jose Calderon, EWP48 -0.110 (-0.089 EWP)
12. David Andersen, EWP48 -0.111 (-0.088 EWP)
13. Ronald Dupree, EWP48 -0.142 (-0.032 EWP)
14. Reggie Evans, EWP48 -0.175 (-0.128 EWP)
15. Andrea Bargnani, EWP48 -0.585 (-0.609 EWP)

Here are my thoughts about the team's performance so far:

• Is anyone surprised that Bargnani is, once again, the least productive player on the team? Whether you're ranking using rates or totals, he's at the very bottom and is a huge detriment to the Raptors. Now that he's playing as a centre full-time, he's hurting the team even more than he did in the past.
• By the same token, is anyone surprised that the two most productive players on a per-minute basis on the team have been Kleiza and Dorsey? In terms of totals, is anyone surprised that the three most productive have been Kleiza, Jack, and Dorsey?
• What is surprising is Alabi's play; granted, it is only two (preseason!) games, but for a below-average guy coming out of college he's done extremely well.
• DeRozan also performed better than expected - although only nearly average.
• Calderon and Evans have played very poorly.
• Interesting fact: the top five players, in order, play the following positions: SF, PF, C, PG, SG. 
• How about that Phoenix game? The score was 129-78 for the Raptors, Kleiza and Dorsey were near EWP48s of 1.000, and Kleiza almost won the game by himself (0.481 EWP).

- Devin.

Stats used

• All basic NBA stats, including play time, salary, and age, are from Basketball-Reference
• Shooting percentages by location are from Hoopdata
• The Wins Produced (WP and WP48) metric is the work of Berri and Schmidt. I use the Automated Wins Produced site, which is powered by data from Basketball-Reference and Yahoo Sports and put together by Andres Alvarez.
• Positional averages (for PPS, etc) are from The Wages of Wins.