Showing posts with label barbosa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label barbosa. Show all posts

Saturday, May 14, 2011

2010-11 Raptor Charts Part II

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.

Yesterday I posted part one, which included both team and individual charts showing the game-by-game distribution of both field goal attempts and scoring efficiency (as determined by the formula PTS-FGA-0.5*FTA). Today I'll be posting the part two, which does the same for Net Possessions and "Helpers".

A player's Net Possesions is determined by the formula REB+STL-TO. This formula rewards those who gain possessions for their teams, and punishes those who give the ball away. Who do we think is going to show up first using this method?

Friday, May 13, 2011

2010-11 Raptor Charts Part I

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


I have a couple of things to post today (with more to come in a bit). The first is a link to a piece about the "most harmful players" of the regular season by Ty Willihnganz over at Courtside Analyst (take a stab at why this article would be relevant to the Raptors). Ty also has posted his MWS Charts for every NBA team - go and take a look at Toronto's numbers. The overall numbers are very similar to Wins Produced - although by MWS, Bargnani looks even worse, Reggie looks even better, and Ed Davis looks more average.

I have also been working on various Raptor charts over the last few weeks. Several weeks ago, I looked at how the Denver Nuggets' FGA changed before and after the Carmelo Anthony trade, and the intention was always to apply the same technique to the Raptors at the end of the season. Well, the season has been over for the Raptors for a while now, so it's time to get this up.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

2010-11 Raptors Season Review

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


Now that the season is official over for the Raptors, it's a good time to review how the season went.

Team Overview:
Team Record: 22-60 (28th)
Eastern Conference Standing: 14th
Team Wins Produced: 23.3 (27th)
Point Differential: -6.28 (27th)

Even the brief numbers aren't pretty; in a little bit I'll take a deeper look at the team numbers, but for now let's just take a quick look. The Raptors finished with the 3rd-worst record in the league (2nd-worst in the East), behind only Cleveland and Minnesota. In terms of Wins Produced and point differential - both better indicators of team quality than Win-Loss record - the Raps finished with the 4th-worst numbers in the league.

Certainly not very happy numbers. And actually, even worse than the paltry amount of wins I predicted that the team would end up with (which was 28 wins). What happened to the Raptors this season? Well, it would make sense if I compared what I thought would happen against what actually happened.

Monday, February 7, 2011

Kevin Love to the Raps!

New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.


According to Doug Smith of the Toronto Star, Kevin Love loves playing under Raptor head coach Jay Triano. Said Love:
“I loved him. I loved having him as coach. He lets his players play, he is definitely a players’ coach. He is a guy that I would love to play for and he is a lot of fun to be around. I enjoyed him.”
How could the Raps get him? If I was in charge of the team, I would be open to trading away any assets - even the team's upcoming first round draft pick - if I could get my hands on Love. Here are some scenarios that could make it happen:

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #4 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)


For more information on the terms used in this post, please consult the Glossary of Terms.


After reviews #1, #2, and #3, here are how the preseason numbers ended up:



I've added some fancy colours to the per 48 minute columns - but please note that the colours are based on totals only and are not adjusted by position. For example: Bargnani doesn't fare so poorly in rebounding when compared to the team as a whole (he's yellow), but compare him to other centres and he'd be terrible (red). Anyways, how are the stats different from the last time we checked in?



Here are my thoughts about the last two games, as well as the preseason as a whole:
  • Raptors' preseason MVP: Jarrett Jack. Runners-up: Dorsey, Kleiza, and Evans
  • Raptors' preseason LVP: Andrea Bustiani. Runners-up: Calderon and DeRozan
  • Of the players who played significant minutes, Kleiza and Johnson lowered their EWP48s (read: got worse) the most over the last two games
  • Barbosa and Evans raised their EWP48s (read: improved) the most over the last two games
  • Calderon, Banks, Alabi, and Bargnani ended up producing a negative number of wins
  • Calderon watch: his best game of the preseason was against the Knicks (EWP48 0.397 and EWP 0.132)
  • Calderon only did one thing well: rack up assists. But his shooting was terrible
  • For another guy who's supposed to be good at shooting...Bargnani didn't shoot well at all
  • Bargnani moved "up" to 11th least productive in the league during the preseason on a per-minute basis (according to Arturo). In terms of total wins produced, Bargani is 4th last, behind Marcus Thornton (2nd year player), Sharron Collins (rookie), and Kenny Hasbrouck (rookie). So...is Bargnani a bust yet?
  • Bargnani's only game in the black this preseason was the second game against the Suns - every other game he was negative
  • Bargnani accumulated a Win Score of exactly 0 in 216 minutes
  • I'd prefer David Andersen to Bargnani - even excluding Bargnani's massive contract. Andersen was better in every area, except blocks and fouls
  • Not news: Reggie Evans rebounds like a madman
  • News: Joey Dorsey out-rebounded the madman
  • Julian Wright was pretty good in limited minutes. He benefited from playing most of his time at SF
  • Going by these numbers, the team's bigs are probably going to have foul trouble most games. Maybe it's time to acquire a decent centre?

There are other stories in those numbers, but those were the ones that spoke to me the most. If you spot any other interesting tales, let me (and others) know in the comments.

 - Devin

Monday, October 18, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #3 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses)



Here are what the team numbers look like after six (of eight) preseason games:



And here is how the numbers have changed since the last review:



Here are my thoughts about the last two games (against familiar opponents):
  • We're still seeing a lot of regression to the norm, particularly for players who haven't played many minutes (Alabi, Wright, Banks, Dorsey, and Dupree)
  • Kleiza, Jack, and Dorsey continue to produce at excellent levels, and in fact improved upon their already excellent per-minute production
  • Evans and Johnson have gotten themselves out of the holes they dug in the first four games. Both are now approaching their expected WP48s for the coming season
  • Barbosa, Weems, and DeRozan have all seen a decline in production, mostly due to poor shooting from the field
  • Playing against the Suns for the second time, Bargnani had his first positive contribution: EWP48 0.258 and EWP 0.134
  • Unfortunately, even including that game, Bargnani has almost caused one whole loss (EWP -0.919) in only six games (yikes)
  • Calderon watch - he had his best game of the preseason against the Suns: EWP48 0.276 and EWP 0.121
  • Calderon continues to slowly improve his per-minute production, but is still a negative contributor at the moment
  • Jack and Kleiza have produced more than one win apiece. Together these two players have been responsible for about 69% of the team's wins.
  • Amir Johnson had a huge game against the Suns: EWP48 0.781 and EWP 0.407
  • David Andersen is a rich man's Andrea Bargnani - he shoots better and rebounds better
  • The Suns have been out-rebounded by the Raptors twice; with Amaré gone, their lack of a quality big man is apparent
  • Last review I forgot to mention Jrue Holiday's huge game against the Raptors: a triple-double, EWP48 0.612 and EWP 0.587. Too bad for him he only got help from Evan Turner and Jodie Meeks

Final observation for this installment: the Raptors EWP totals add up to 3.13 wins, and after six games their record is 3 wins and 3 losses. Who knew that Wins Produced was so good at explaining player productivity in NBA games?

 - Devin


Friday, October 15, 2010

Raptors Preseason Review #2 (of 4)

This article uses the Wins Produced metric to discuss the productivity of NBA players. This metric is based on box score statistics that are adjusted for other factors including pace, position and team. A general scale is given for these, and links to advanced explanations are listed at the bottom of the page.

Wins Produced per 48 Minutes (WP48) – The number of wins a player produces in 48 minutes of play. 0.100 is average and 0.250 is considered the “superstar threshold”. A player a WP48 of 0.000 produces no wins, and any player with a negative WP48 produces a negative number a wins (or, if you prefer, a positive number of losses) 

Here are the Raptors' numbers after four (of eight) preseason games:



As you can see, there have been a few changes in the team rankings. How have things changed?



Looking at the numbers, here are my thoughts:

  • Notice the general trend of players with larger EWP48s becoming less productive, and the players with highly negative WP48s becoming more productive? That's regression to the mean. The players at the top were performing abnormally well, and the players at the bottom were performing abnormally poorly; it was only a matter of time before things normalized
  • Productive players who played poorly over the last two games: Weems, DeRozan, Kleiza, and Dorsey
  • Productive players who have stayed productive: Jack
  • Unproductive players who continued to play poorly: Bargnani and Calderon
  • Unproductive players who were productive: Evans, Dupree, Barbosa, Wright
  • Jack had a huge game against the 76ers: EWP48 0.824, EWP 0.566
  • Jack had a terrible game against the Bulls: EWP -0.359, EWP -0.195
  • Kleiza had a terrible game against the 76ers: EWP -0.345, EWP -0.129
  • Bargnani's best game so far: v. Bulls,  EWP -0.074, EWP -0.040
  • Calderon's best game so far: v. Bulls,  EWP 0.001, EWP 0.000
  • The last two games have been a better indication of how things are going to go during the regular season, because the Bulls will be a good team and the 76ers are going to be bad

Nothing is too far out of the ordinary for the Raptors so far, apart from the play of Jose Calderon. If he plays like this during the regular season, the Raptors are going to struggle to break 20 wins.

That's right - 20.

 - Devin

Thursday, September 23, 2010

2010 FIBA WBC in Turkey: Leandro Barbosa Stats

Here is the spreadsheet for the Brazilian team WBC stats, which includes Leandro Barbosa, as well as fellow NBA players Anderson Varejao and Tiago Splitter:


Let's take a look at Barbosa first:



Not bad, but I think everyone was hoping for a little more against international competition. He was close to average in most categories except for rebounding and steals, which were above average.  His FGAtt were way more than average, which lead to his scoring being way more than average as well - but his shooting efficiency was a tiny bit below average and so his shooting wasn't all that helpful (although he did manage to pass the 1 PPS threshold). He played particularly poorly in Brazil's three losses against USA, Slovenia, and Argentina; in fact, take a look at the difference in Barbosa's production during wins and his production during losses:


Barbosa played incredibly well in victories (Iran, Tunisia, and Croatia) and quite terribly in losses (USA, Slovenia, and Argentina). Compounding this was the fact that he played fewer minutes in wins than in losses, presumably because when his team was ahead they felt that they would rest him, and when his team was behind they thought they 'needed him' to help them win.

Who's that A. Garcia? That would be former Spur (2003-04) and Hornet (2004-05) Alex Garcia. Garcia produced the most wins for the Brazilian team (1.03) and had a EWP40 of 0.256 (third best on the team). He shot more efficiently, rebounded better, turned the ball over less...did better than Barbosa in pretty much every category other than FG attempts and points. Garcia was the best guard on the team.

Now let's take a look at selected forwards and centres:



Machado was the team's best forward and best player overall (by EWP40). Despite putrid rebounding numbers, he scored so much and so efficently that he still managed to produce at an excellent rate. It's a shame that he only played the sixth-most minutes on the team, and as he is 35 years old, his international career is probably near its end.

Varejao, Splitter, and Becker split their time at forward and centre, so comparing their numbers isn't perfectly straightfoward. A couple of things stand out; for example, Varejao couldn't shoot. Interestingly, he seems to have known that because he did not take very many shots of any kind. The main thing he did well (and he did it amazingly well) was rebound; other than that, his low foul and turnover rates were positives, but not much else was. Splitter, on the other hand, was much more balanced; he didn't really stand out in any one area, but instead was slightly above average in most. Both produced at a similar rate - Varejao at an EWP40 of 0.157 and Splitter at 0.149 - but due to Varejao's injuries at the start of the tournament, Splitter player more minutes and so produced more wins.

Becker performed like a better version of Varejao - his main skill was rebounding, but he managed to outperform in every category other than fouls and steals, and was thus significantly more productive. If I was a centre-starved NBA team (*coughRaptorscough*), I'd probably consider giving him a look to see if he could maintain at least a portion of his efficiency in an NBA setting.

So, with all that out of the way, let me add a few more thoughts about the stats from these games:
  • I find it interesting (but not totally surprising) that the three best players on an international team with three NBA players were non-NBA players
  • Brazil kicked Croatia's butt - 1.339 EWins Produced to -0.339 EWins Produced.
  • Brazil actually out-performed Argentina - 0.508 EWP to 0.492 EWP - but still lost a close game.
  • Despite a very close score, the USA was clearly the better team in their game (0.625 EWP to 0.375 EWP)
  • Huge games: Barbosa (0.553 EWP) vs Tunisia and Scola (0.522 EWP) vs Brazil
Lately I haven't been posting as often as I would like - blame it on moving. I hope to get back up to speed in the next little bit.

 - Devin.

Friday, September 3, 2010

2009-10 Player Review: Leandro Barbosa

Let's let a look at the Brazilian Blur, Leandro Barbosa:













To say that last year was not a good year for the Brazilian would be an understatement; he went from a nice WP48 of 0.130 in 2008-2009 to a WP48 of -0.032 and only managed to play a career-low 44 games (and a career low 786 minutes played). Moreover, he continued his trend of alternating between good and bad years. Let's take a look at what changed over the past three seasons:











Barbosa gets most of his productivity from his scoring. It's not surprising, then, that when his shooting efficiency nosedived last year his productivity nosedived as well. His FG attempts were actually up, but his AdjFG% and FT attempts were down. Most of his other productivity mesasures were down and below-average (as they usually are for Barbosa).

Why did Barbosa's shooting efficiency suddenly drop off a cliff? Perhaps the answer lies in his shot selection:

Data provided by HoopData







Looking at these numbers, I notice a couple of things:
  1. Barbosa's percentages are down at every location on the court
  2. The percentage of his close-range shots (rim and <10ft) that were assisted last year increased
  3. The percentage of his mid-range and long-range shots (shots >10ft) that were assisted last year decreased
To me that suggests that Barbosa's shot selection was off last year (by off, I mean compared to his normal self). Out on the perimeter he tried to do it by himself too often, and then end result was a low-percentage shot. He had trouble getting closer to the basket by himself - likely due to injuries - and so most of his close-range shots were set-up by teammates. Of course, this is just a theory. An alternate theory is that he simply forgot how to shoot last year.

What's the outlook for this year? I've projected him to have a WP48 of 0.080, but if he has recovered from his injuries and maintains his pattern of alternating between bad and good seasons, he could improve on that mark. Then again, if he really has forgotten how to shoot, he could be significantly under that mark. Regardless, if he plays around 2000 minutes on the season, he will likely produce around 3 wins.

 - Devin.