2010-11 Raptor Charts Part II

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.

Yesterday I posted part one, which included both team and individual charts showing the game-by-game distribution of both field goal attempts and scoring efficiency (as determined by the formula PTS-FGA-0.5*FTA). Today I'll be posting the part two, which does the same for Net Possessions and "Helpers".

A player's Net Possesions is determined by the formula REB+STL-TO. This formula rewards those who gain possessions for their teams, and punishes those who give the ball away. Who do we think is going to show up first using this method?

WOW Network Podcast for 03/13/11

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


On Friday - along with David Berri of the Wages of Wins Journal, Arturo Galletti of Arturo's Silly Little Stats, and Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index - I participated in a WOW network podcast, which you can listen to here. We talked about "Small Market Teams" and "Super Teams", the NBA draft, and the NFL labour (yes, that word is spelt with a 'u') issue.

Dave also has a short little summary of the podcast on his site.

WOW Network Podcast for 02/18/11

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


This Friday, along with David Berri of the Wages of Wins Journal, Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index, and Arturo Galletti of Arturo's Silly Little Stats, I participated in a WOW podcast. If you are interested in listening, the link is here. Dave also has a short little blurb about the podcast - and some relevant links - on one of his recent posts.

Now you can finally put a voice to the words that appear on this website!

 - Devin

(P.S.: If you'd like to complain about my performance - maybe you don't like the way my voice sounds, thought my comments were silly, or just plain don't like me - please do so here)

David Berri on DeRozan and the Raptors

New readers, please check out the basics before you leave any comments.


David Berri, author of the Wages of Wins, Stumbling on Wins, The Wages of Wins Journal, and the founder of the Wages of Wins Network, has posted a new article about the Raptors. While it is very similar to what I've already discussed on this blog (after all, we both use Wins Produced to analyze basketball statistics), Dave is always a good read, and I encourage you to check it out if you haven't already done so.

 - Devin

Champions and Drafted Players

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


I've been away for a while, so I've been writing a bunch of new posts in the short term. Today I'd like to revisit a classic topic: NBA champions and the draft.

Congraturation!

I've already shown that securing a top tree draft selection is generally not the ideal position to be in for an NBA team. To recap, I found that:

• in the lottery era (1985-present), 60% of teams that have ended up with a top three draft pick haven't made it past the first round of the NBA playoffs during their draftee's first four years in the league.
• to put it another way, only 40% of teams with a top three draft selection managed to advance past the first round in one or more of their draftees' first four years.
• during the lottery era - only four (Duncan, Robinson, Sean Elliott, who was traded away and then reacquired, and Darko Milicic, who shouldn't count because he didn't really play) out of the 78 players (5%) taken with a top three pick have won a championship with the team that drafted them.
• all that makes sense, as top three draft picks generally start their careers on bad teams. The Spurs lucked out with Duncan because, rather than being a bad team, they were a good team that had injury problems. The Pistons "lucked out" with Milicic because the Grizzlies were dumb enough to trade away their 2003 1st round pick in exchange for Otis Thorpe. Robinson and Elliott won their championships well after they were drafted, and Elliott was actually traded away and reacquired before he got his.
• top three picks fared a little bit better in the pre-lottery era - ten players (Jordan, Olajuwon, Worthy, Thomas, McHale, Magic, Walton, Kareem, Unseld, and Cazzie Russell) out of the 57 top three draftees (17.5%) eventually won with the team that drafted them, and only 28% of teams couldn't make it past the first round in their draftee's first four years.
• this also makes sense, as there were fewer teams in the pre-lottery days, which gave each team a better chance of moving up in the standings.

Another 'Bargnani is a Bust' Post

New readers, please go check out the basics before you leave any comments on this post.


Every time I mention that Bargnani was a terrible pick and list players from the 2006 draft that I would prefer instead of him, I still get readers would question my sanity and insult me. Of course, they never explain why I'm wrong, they just like making unsubstantiated ad hominem attacks. But I have collected even more information that should make it abundantly clear that Bargnani was a rancid pick.


How does Bargnani compare to other #1 picks?

In a previous post, I compared Bargnani's Wins Produced numbers to the last 12 years of first overall picks. This time, I've added all the advanced numbers, such as PPS, per 48 minute stats, and even PER and Win Shares (note: I do not condone use of Win Shares or PER - especially PER). I've also extended the comparison down to Olowokandi and included Darko Milicic (who was actually a second overall pick), because those are the two players Bargnani apologists inevitably claim were worse than picks than Bargnani. And remember: these numbers only include the first four seasons of each player's career. Here are the more complete numbers (spreadsheet here), this time in the form of a handy little gadget which (if it works correctly) should allow you to sort by whatever category you want:


To sort the columns, go to 'define groupings and calculations', select the column you want to sort, hit the arrow, and then click 'next' and then 'OK'. To remove a grouping, highlight the category you want to remove and click the blank button (which is underneath the one with the arrow). Unfortunately, it seems like it can only order values from smallest to largest, but it's better than giving you a plain spreadsheet. RSS users, please visit the actual website to view these numbers, as the gadget doesn't seem to work in feeds.

What do the numbers tell us? Well for one, Andrea Bargnani does not compare very favourably to the rest of these players. Ranked by WP48 he is dead last behind Olowokandi, Milicic, and Brown. If for some reason you don't "agree" with Wins Produced, ranked by PER (worth repeating: I do not condone use of PER) he is 11th (ahead of Brown, Milicic, and Olowokandi), and ranked by Win Shares (worth repeating: I do not condone use of Win Shares) he is 12th, ahead of Olowokandi and the small sample size of John Wall. If you weigh all three metrics (WP, WS, and PER) equally (which, again, I do not) and take the cumulative rank  - 'Combo Rank' - Bargnani comes out 2nd last, behind Milicic and ahead of Olowokandi. Regardless of how you slice it, Bargnani was bad for a first overall pick.

But something interesting happens when you sort these players by points per 48 minutes; all of the sudden Bargnani moves up to 7th place, ahead of notably better players like Dwight Howard, Greg Oden, and Andrew Bogut. As David Berri has mentioned over and over, the popular way of evaluating NBA players is by points scored, so it should be no surprise that so many fans (and certain GMs) have problems recognizing that Bargnani is not very productive. Casual fans are blinded by the relatively large amounts of points that Bargnani scores, failing to notice his lack of production in other areas - such as rebounding - or his shooting efficiency (Bargnani is also 4th in FG attempts).

For a good laugh, try sorting all of the players by rebounds. Bargnani places 11th, just ahead of SF Lebron James. It should be noted that Lebron entered the league when he was two years younger than Bargnani and that at the moment Lebron has actually rebounded at a better rate than Bargnani during his career.

Also, note the age of each player - Bargnani is as old as Milicic and Howard, who both entered the league out of high school. Still expecting Bargnani to 'make a leap' this season? Those who do expect a leap...do you expect a leap out of Howard and/or Milicic?


How does Bargnani compare to other members of the 2006 draft class?

In one of those previous posts up above, I compared Bargnani's Wins Produced numbers to the rest of the 2006 draft class. This time - as with the #1 picks - I've added all the advanced numbers, such as PPS, per 48 minute stats, and even PER and Win Shares (note: I do not condone use of Win Shares or PER - especially PER). Remember: these numbers only include the first four seasons of each player's career. Here are the more complete numbers (spreadsheet here), again in the form of a handy little gadget which (if it works correctly) should allow you to sort by whatever category you want:


Again, to sort the columns, go to 'define groupings and calculations', select the column you want to sort, hit the arrow, and then click 'next' and then 'OK'. To remove a grouping, highlight the category you want to remove and click the blank button (which is underneath the one with the arrow). RSS users, please visit the actual website to view these numbers, as the gadget doesn't seem to work in feeds.


Bargnani ranks 27th out of 30 - or 4th last - in terms of WP48. The players he finishes ahead of are Hilton Armstrong, Ryan Hollins, and Adam Morrison (one of the worst players of all time). If for some reason you don't "agree" with Wins Produced, ranked by PER (worth repeating: I do not condone use of PER) he is 13th (because PER rewards players who take a lot of shots, he finishes ahead of good players such as Shelden Williams and Thabo Sefolosha), and ranked by Win Shares (worth repeating: I do not condone use of Win Shares) he is 23rd. If you take the Combo Rank, Bargnani is ranked 22nd. So no matter how you slice it, Bargnani was not a good choice and not even in the top 10, top 15, or top 20 players of the 2006 draft.

But once again, something interesting happens when you sort these players by points per 48 minutes; all of the sudden Bargnani moves up to 4th place, ahead of several better players like Rajon Rondo, Paul Millsap, Leon Powe, and Ronnie Brewer. Blinded by scoring, many delusional Raptor fans will say that even if Bargnani wasn't the best player that year, at least he was in the top ten. However, we shouldn't forget about other aspects of the game when we evaluate players; in rebounding, Bargnani places 14th behind F Shawne Williams, G/F Thabo Sefolosha, and just ahead of G/F Rudy Gay and PG Rajon Rondo.


As the most comprehensive 'Bargnani is a bust' post I've written to date, hopefully it will help more people realize that Bargnani is not a very productive player. The Raptors need to trade Bargnani as soon as possible, before the rest of the league catch on to his lack of production and while his value is at its highest. Exchanging Bargnani for a more productive Centre would do wonders for the franchise and is something that should be GM Bryan Colangelo's number one priority.

 - Devin

AGS for Front Offices Audit: Toronto Raptors Part 3

For you new readers out there, make sure you know about the basics before you leave a silly anonymous comment.



Continuing with the third part of the front office audit series (please see part 1 and part 2), I'll examine the last three components and offer some suggestions on how to turn the franchise around.

5) If you are going to the free agent market then look for low-priced underrated players.

Colangelo has actually done a pretty good job on this one historically. The Raptors have signed Jose Calderon (Rob Babcock's work, actually), Anthony Parker, Jorge Garbojosa, and Linas Kleiza (all at cheap salaries) from Europe. David Berri, founder of the Wages of Wins Network and creator of the Wins Produced metric, called it Colangelo's "third way" (in addition to drafting and NBA free agents/trades). He also found the undrafted, cheap, and very productive Jamario Moon. He recently re-signed Amir Johnson to a reasonable contract. But at the same time, Colangelo has also signed Hedo Turkoglu to a terrible free agent deal, given Bargnani a ridiculously huge (and long) extension,  traded for the Player Formerly Known as Jermaine O'Neal, and actually gave Jason Kapono a positive amount of money in his contract (rather than asking Kapono to pay him to stay on the team, which is what he'd have done if this was a rational world). So he's done very well on the "small" deals, but very poorly on the "big" deals. In this case, the good outweighs the bad, but the bad has been so bad that I can only give him partial marks on this one.

6) For the playoffs it is more important to have stars than average players. If given the opportunity trade for stars even if it means losing a few slightly above average players.

Playoffs? You're talking about playoffs?!?!? [that's the first and probably the only time I will reference North American Football on this blog] Well, in terms of stars, the Raptors haven't had much luck. Damon Stoudemire and Vince Carter asked to be traded. Tracy McGrady, Shawn Marion, and Chris Bosh left as free agents. Good players like Jerome Williams and Marcus Camby were stupidly traded away. Older but good players like Hakeem Olajuwon, Charles Oakley, and Mark Jackson faded and were either traded away or decided to retire. The Raptors have failed in this area completely.

7) Target good big men (Power Forwards – Centers) and ball handlers (Point Guards).

The Raptors have targeted big men in draft after draft - but other than Bosh, their decisions have been terribly poor. They have had good point guards fall into their hands, only to watch them struggle with injuries (Alvin Williams, Calderon) or suffer from age-related decline (Mark Jackson). In one instance, Colangelo actually traded a big (Charlie Villanueva) for a small (T.J. Ford), something that is a "no-no" according to traditional basketball wisdom; given that Ford was productive and Villanueva was not, it was actually a good move. I'm going to give them an A for effort, but an F for their execution.


Summary:
Five failures and two partial marks out of seven


Verdict:
Do not pass go, do not collect $200.



Future Direction?


Let me start by stating the obvious: hire a GM who knows what they're doing (allow me to suggest a Mr. Galletti). That means that the Raptors should not renew Colangelo's contract once it expires at the end of this season (or fire him sometime during the season), even though they are probably going to ignore that advice.

The next step is figuring out which contracts the Raptors should keep on the books. Most of the players on the team are signed to relatively cheap contracts, but Calderon, Bargnani, and Barbosa have the biggest deals. Bargnani needs to be traded. Barbosa is overvalued and it shouldn't be hard to trade him to a contender or pseudo-contender. Calderon is the interesting case. His history suggests that he is a good player, but he has been declining, his recent play has been poor, and his contract is pretty hefty. I'd keep him for one more season and see how he fares; if he does poorly, he'd be gone before the start of next season. In each of these cases, I would only make trades that would net me at least one (hopefully more) of the following: young players on rookie contracts, players with expiring deals, stars/superstar players (determined by Wins Produced), and draft picks.

The next issue is the Bosh trade exception: it needs to be used. If I had to include it in a package with one of the above players, I would. But preferably I'd used it to acquire a superstar player. I'd go after every star/superstar that I could get (your Wades, Lebrons, Howards, Durants, Rondos and Pauls) but most of those players aren't on the market, so I'd target up-and-coming stars like Westbrook, Noah, Batum, Love, and the like. I'd also look at non-star players if I couldn't do any better.

Once that was done, I'd have a cheap, young, and better team. I'd make sure to continue to flip scorers for draft picks and to use WS40 to determine which players I should draft (or I could just ask Mr. Galletti). The only time I would trade away draft picks is if I could obtain a superstar calibre player in return.

Of the cheaper players on the roster, I'd trade away DeRozan after this season if he maintains his current trajectory. I'd try to include Marcus Banks in deals, but if I couldn't find a use for him I'd be fine with letting his contract come off the books. I'd resign Reggie Evans and Joey Dorsey to really cheap contracts as long as they produce like they have in the past, but I'd avoid long-term deals. Julian Wright and Sonny Weems are quite replaceable, so I'd probably shop around for better players on the free agent market, or use the "third way" and find hidden gems in Europe.

I guarantee that this plan would have better success than whatever Colangelo is doing right now. Such a plan would likely net a playoff berth in the next two seasons, followed by advancing to the second round in the following two years after that. And if the Raptors hired either Arturo, myself, or any of the other Wages of Wins Network analysts, I doubt that they would regret it.

 - Devin

David Berri Interview with RaptorsHQ

Go on over to RaptorsHQ to see what David Berri, author of The Wages of Wins and Stumbling on Wins has to say about several Raptors-related issues, including everyone's favourite player, Andrea Bargnani.

Unsurprisingly, Mr. Berri and I have very similar opinions, but it's a good read nonetheless - particularly if you are interested in the history of Wins Produced.

 - Devin.