Full 2011 NBA Draft Prospect Overview

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.

**(Note: the images are too large to be properly uploaded into Blogger, so I will be moving them into Google Docs format)**


About a month ago I posted my numberless preview of the NBA draft. The draft is coming up this Thursday, so now's the time to put out the full version of the post (it's been ready for a whole month, I swear!).

In case you've been stuck under a rock for the past few months, you'll know that the NBA draft is coming up shortly. My team of choice (for now....) is the Toronto Raptors; the Raptors will have the fifth pick this year. My question is, according to the numbers, which players should the Raptors (or any other team, for that matter) target?

No, no, no: DeMar DeRozan is not the MIP

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


During the Raptors’ blowout loss at the hands of the Nuggets, I listened in disbelief as the commentators - Matt Devlin and Jack Armstrong - made the case that DeMar DeRozan should be in the running for the Most Improved Player (MIP) award. Now, I’ve already written about this in the past, but the fact that this idea is still out there means that I need to keep addressing this topic.


The argument for DeRozan as the MIP

During the game, the stat used to back up this argument was...drumroll...PPG increase from last season. Here were the names that they included on the graphic that popped up onto the screen:

WOW Network Podcast for 03/13/11

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


On Friday - along with David Berri of the Wages of Wins Journal, Arturo Galletti of Arturo's Silly Little Stats, and Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index - I participated in a WOW network podcast, which you can listen to here. We talked about "Small Market Teams" and "Super Teams", the NBA draft, and the NFL labour (yes, that word is spelt with a 'u') issue.

Dave also has a short little summary of the podcast on his site.

The 50 greatest NBA players of all-time

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


Given the team's record right now, Raptor news is a bit boring these days; eventually I will take another look at how the individual players have been playing, but Nerd Numbers is down (and the Game Splits tool - which I had just started to rely on for my weekly player evaluations - has been down for a while now). So today I will write about a topic that is barely even tangentially related to the Raptors - my version of the NBA's 50 greatest players.

Champions and Drafted Players

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


I've been away for a while, so I've been writing a bunch of new posts in the short term. Today I'd like to revisit a classic topic: NBA champions and the draft.

Congraturation!

I've already shown that securing a top tree draft selection is generally not the ideal position to be in for an NBA team. To recap, I found that:

• in the lottery era (1985-present), 60% of teams that have ended up with a top three draft pick haven't made it past the first round of the NBA playoffs during their draftee's first four years in the league.
• to put it another way, only 40% of teams with a top three draft selection managed to advance past the first round in one or more of their draftees' first four years.
• during the lottery era - only four (Duncan, Robinson, Sean Elliott, who was traded away and then reacquired, and Darko Milicic, who shouldn't count because he didn't really play) out of the 78 players (5%) taken with a top three pick have won a championship with the team that drafted them.
• all that makes sense, as top three draft picks generally start their careers on bad teams. The Spurs lucked out with Duncan because, rather than being a bad team, they were a good team that had injury problems. The Pistons "lucked out" with Milicic because the Grizzlies were dumb enough to trade away their 2003 1st round pick in exchange for Otis Thorpe. Robinson and Elliott won their championships well after they were drafted, and Elliott was actually traded away and reacquired before he got his.
• top three picks fared a little bit better in the pre-lottery era - ten players (Jordan, Olajuwon, Worthy, Thomas, McHale, Magic, Walton, Kareem, Unseld, and Cazzie Russell) out of the 57 top three draftees (17.5%) eventually won with the team that drafted them, and only 28% of teams couldn't make it past the first round in their draftee's first four years.
• this also makes sense, as there were fewer teams in the pre-lottery days, which gave each team a better chance of moving up in the standings.

Week 14 Team Opponent Stats

New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.


Yesterday I posted the Team Stats update for week 14, and the day before that I posted the player stats for week 14. Today I'd like to post something I haven't done before: opponent stats. I figure that it would be interesting (and useful) to see how well other teams perform against the Raptors. Here's another of those weird double-scrolling charts:

Week 14 Team Stats Update

New readers, please check out the basics before you leave any comments.


Surprised? I said I'd be back again soon!

Yesterday I posted the individual Wins Produced for week 14, and as I mentioned, the numbers aren't pretty. But what about the team numbers? With those, perhaps we'll be able to put together some theories as to why the Raptors aren't playing well? Well, it just so happens that I have everything up and ready to go. Here's a nice - albeit somewhat strange, what with the double scrolling thing going on - sortable table of every team in the league:



Here are my thoughts:

• The end of the 3PT streak wasn't really surprising - the team still can't shoot threes. The team is dead last in 3P%, as well as second last in 3PA/FGA, which measures a team's tendency to take threes. That isn't all bad - that means that the team is somewhat aware of its lack of ability and at least limits the number of wasted possessions. Unfortunately, it also means that opponents can sag off perimeter players and clog up the paint, making closer shots more difficult.
• The Raptors are 16th in AdjFG% (adjusted FG%), at 49.27%. The league average is 49.66%, so while the Raps are a little behind in this department, they don't fare terribly here.
• When we account for free-throw shooting and look at TS%, the Raptors fall a few spots to 19th, at 53.20%. League average is 54.04%. This is because the Raps don't shoot that many (FT/48 and FTa/FGa are low) and they shoot them poorly (74.15% compared to a league average of 76.15%).
• The Raptors are 22nd in net possessions (REB+STL-TO), at 6.7/48mins. The league average is 7.0, so again, the Raps aren't doing too badly here.
• The big problem is that Toronto is below average in both TS% and net possessions. While there are some good teams that can't shoot (Portland, Memphis, Chicago, and Philadelphia), these teams make up for it by being able to secure extra possessions. Likewise, the good teams that can't secure extra possessions (Phoenix, Boston, and Atlanta) make up for it by being above average at shooting. The teams that are below average in both of these statistics (Cleveland, Toronto, Washington, New Jersey, Detroit, Charlotte, and the improving Clippers) are just...bad.
• There are three additional "helping" stats that can slightly improve performance: assists, blocks, and fouls. The Raptors are 12th in assists, 27th in blocks, and are 8th in fouls committed. The helping stats aren't really helpful, are they?

The trade deadline is coming up in about three more weeks - will the team make any moves to shore up its weaknesses? Will I stop posing rhetorical questions in my future posts? Keep tuning in to find out.

 - Devin

Pre-season predictions: how have I done?

New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.


Well, it's the first week of the new year, and I'm reading a book I received as a Christmas gift (thanks Mom and Dad) called Future Babble, which is written by Ottawa Citizen columnist Dan Gardner, who has also written the excellent Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear. The gist of Future Babble is that people suck at making predictions. For instance, in his latest article, Gardner says:

People want to hear predictions. And for the expert, there's no way he can lose. If the prediction hits, he can boast about it and reporters will cite it as proof of his wisdom. But if it misses, no one will ever hear about it again.

Heads, I win. Tails, you forget we had a bet.

Of course the rules of the game would be a little different if, at the end of the year, instead of asking for new predictions, we looked back at what was predicted to happen in the year ending. Think of it as holding people to account for the predictions they make.

While admittedly I don't consider myself an "expert" and I've previously noted the difficulty of predicting the outcome of the NBA season before the season starts, I did make some predictions that we could examine. I'd  like to be accountable and trustworthy, and I'd like to learn from my mistakes, so let's start out with my predicted NBA standings - how have I done so far (full spreadsheet here)? All win totals are accurate as of January 5, 2011.



Included in the table are several columns - predicted wins (what I predicted before the start of the season), current record, a simple win projection (which multiplies current winning percentage across 82 games), a point differential win projection (which uses Arturo's formula to determine wins via point differential), and the average difference between my pre-season predictions and the two projection methods.

What does the table show? Generally, I was either really close or way off - not much in between. Thirteen of my predictions came within 5 wins of the current projections, 12 predictions were off by ten or more wins, and only five predictions were off in the 5-10 win range. The teams I overrated the most: Sacramento (a whopping 22.4 wins off target), Cleveland (21.3 wins off), Portland (18.3 wins off), Golden State and Philadelphia (each 17.1 wins off), and New Jersey (16.3 wins off). The teams I nailed: Orlando (0.4 wins off), Chicago (0.6 wins off), the Lakers (1.0 wins off), and (of course) Toronto (1.1 wins off). Where did I go wrong with those six teams?

Sacramento



Carl Landry has fallen into the toilet and can't get out, Dalembert isn't playing up to his usual standards, and I was burned by one rookie (Cousins) and one second-year player (Evans). As we saw with Kevin Durant, sometimes the rookies that we think are going to be good NBA players start out slowly, so either of these two players could turn it around in the future. Of course, some players never get it - we've been saying the same thing about Michael Beasley, who is still not playing well during his third season.

A few players - led by Udrih, Casspi, Garcia, and Head - have out-performed my expectations, but if you combine the bonus wins provided by every player in the green (6.6 wins) it is barely enough to make up for Evans or Landry by themselves.

Cleveland



J.J. Hickson has, to paraphrase Jason Kidd, performed a complete 360 this season. Last year Hickson was just a shade below an average player, and this year he is giving the lovable Andrea Bargnani a run for his money in the competition to win the Darius Songaila award. Hickson is only 22 years old, so his volatility is somewhat understandable...but you can't blame me for not forseeing such a huge change. Antawn Jamison is finally starting to show his age - you could argue I should have seen a decline coming there. Mo Williams is also down this year - his shooting efficiency (which is supposed to be his strong point) is way down and his turnovers are up, but thankfully he's been able to up his assists. Other than that, the other players who haven't met my expectations have only been slightly below what I had penciled them in for; however, all those small changes add up quickly.

Andersen Varejao is really the only player on the team who has stepped up his play this season. It seems that the turmoil associated with LeBron's departure has really messed with the players who stuck around - probably one part new roles and one part psychological.

Portland



The big letdown here is Brandon Roy - I expected him to account for 10.8 wins on the season, and right now he is not even on pace to win a single game. And even though I only allocated 800 minutes to Oden, his rate of production is so good that I expected him to account for 4.7 wins. Well, there's about 16 wins out the window. Joel Przybilla is also on pace to be down about 5 wins, but, as he returns from injury, his minutes will go up and so will his projected wins. The rest of the players who have let me down have combined to produce 10.4 wins fewer than I expected.

On the plus side, the two old guys (Miller and Camby) have upped their games, as has Batum and Mathews. These four players have combined to exceeded my expectations by 10.7 wins. It's a testament to the Blazers that they've been able to stick around 0.500 with injuries to some of their top players.

Golden State



The big problem with my Warriors prediction has been the play of David Lee. After receiving an early Christmas present from Wilson Chandler, Lee had a serious infection in his shooting arm and hasn't played well since. The other players that are hurting my prediction are Stephen Curry, Reggie Williams, and Louis Amundson - all players with limited playing histories.

On the plus side, human sine wave Monta Ellis is playing better than I expected...for now.

Philadelphia



The Sixers are the only one of these teams to be off in a positive direction - I predicted they would win around 19 games, but right now they're on pace for 39 wins. The big differences are due to the return of Elton Brand (finally) and Andres Nocioni, the emergence of two young players (Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young) as average to above-average players, and a lower than expected amount of minutes being allocated to unproductive players (perhaps coach Doug Collins is actually helping the team in this case?).

While he has been slightly better than I expected, Iguodala's minutes have been low due to injuries. Rookie Evan Turner hasn't lived up to expectations so far, and Louis Williams has offered less than he has in the past. Still, things are much rosier in Philadelphia than I thought they would be.

New Jersey



Brook Lopez is another young player who seems to have taken a huge step backwards, as has old WP favourite Troy Murphy.  Additionally, Outlaw and Terence Williams aren't playing the way I thought they would.

On the bright side, ex-Raptor Kris Humphries has improved drastically, nearly making up for Murphy's poor performance on his own (he's also the star of my Wins Score Association fantasy team). New Jersey should also get a little better as Vujacic gets a larger percentage of the team's playing time.

Once the season finishes, I'll take another look back and see if anything's change significantly. Hopefully things regress back to my expectations!

 - Devin

More all-star ballot fun

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


A while back I posted who I thought should be on this year's all-star ballot. Recently Ian Levy has written a post about the East's all-star ballot - who is on the list, who should be on the list, but isn't, and who shouldn't be on the list, but is - and several Raptors feature prominently.

Go check it out!


 - Devin.

Week 6/7 Team Stats

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


Time for a team stats update! These numbers are provided by dougstats and Nerd Numbers (full spreadsheet here):



Here are some thoughts:

• Toronto's fallen a few places - down from 20th to 22nd place - in terms of team WP48. As before, there is a log-jam - now narrowed to 18th-22nd place - so don't don't read too much into it.
• The 3pt shooting is slowly getting better, from around 31% to almost 34%. 3pt attempts have also increased slightly. Team shooting in general is doing a bit better.
• Last time the surprises were the Hornets, the Pacers, the Nets, and the Kings. This is how they are doing now: Hornets (league 9th, West 5th); Pacers (league 8th, East 4th); Nets (league 23rd, East 12th); and Kings (league 25th, West 13th). The Trailblazers (league 15th, West 8th) are doing a bit better, but the Warriors (league 28th, West 15th) are really stinking it up.
• The Cavs (league 29th, East 14th) are also not playing well at all.
• Meanwhile the Spurs (league 1st, West 1st) have ascended to the top spot, ahead of the other front-runners (Heat, Celtics, and Lakers).

Plenty more stats to look at - have fun finding the interesting stories on your own. I'm working on some other things and wanted to get this up quickly!

 - Devin

Bargnani is playing better this season...right?

New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments on this post.


Ah, another Barngani post. Whenever I feel like this site hasn't been getting much traffic lately, I know I can always count on a good ol' Bargnani post to bolster the numbers.

Last time I pointed out that not only should Bargnani not be considered an all-star this season, but that he shouldn't even be on the all-star ballot. Predictably, there were several negative and insulting comments left on that post, but thankfully, there were also some thoughtful comments, including this one by Eugene:

The more I look at bargnani's play this year and look at the relevant stats, the more I have come to a conclusion that is opposite to what has been generally suggested on this blog. That is to say: it is not the case that wp48 numbers show that, contrary to naive opinion, bargnani is an astonishingly bad NBA player. Rather, the fact that bargnani is a reasonably decent NBA player shows that there is something very seriously wrong with wins produced.

This is especially made clear when you look at the raptors front court tandem from earlier in the year. Bargs and Evans played a lot of minutes together, and according to wp48 bargs was mind-shatteringly awful while, simultaneously, evnas was the 4th best player in the NBA. What this demonstrates to me is that wp48 does a very bad job of allocating credit for wins. If you average their wp48 numbers, the average value makes sense, but wp48 gives Evans an unreasonable amount of credit and bargnani an unfair share of blame.

Eugene: that was a constructive comment - thanks for leaving it. But it's a common criticsm that us WP writers hear all the time; Arturo of Arturo's Silly Stats has written a bunch of stuff on it lately. Rather than examine WP methodology - I'll leave that Arturo - let's take a look at Bargnani's year-by-year numbers. If the numbers show that Bargnani has significantly improved his playing this year, that might be an indication that WP may have flaws. And if the numbers show that Bargnani has become more productive with Evans out, that might also be a sign that WP is flawed.

First let's look at Bargnani's numbers for the season. In the following table I've compared the stats of each of Bargnani's seasons, his career stats, and his career stats before this season, to the average numbers posted by the average centre and the average power forward (and no, we are not getting into another debate about which position Bargnani plays; he is clearly a PF who spends at least some time playing C). In addition to the things I normally look at, I've also included PER (which I do not endorse, because it rewards players for taking addtional shots, even when those shots miss), Win Shares per 48 (which I do not endorse, although it is much better than PER), and PPG. Here's the table:



What do the numbers say? Of the three comprehensive stats - WP48, WS/48, and PER, all of them say that Bargnani is less productive this season as compared to last season. Let me repeat: all three say that Bargnani is playing worse this season.

So what's changed? While he must be congratulated for getting to the line more often this year (2.5 more FTA per 48 minutes over last year - quite an achievement), making a higher percentage of his free-throws, and incrementally increasing his assists and steals (which remain close to his career averages and continue to be below average), his shooting efficiency has taken a dive, his turnovers have nearly doubled, and his already paltry rebounding numbers have fallen. His usually decent block numbers have decreased quite a bit, and his fouls - while still better than average - have increased.

Hmmm...am I forgetting to mention something? Oh yes: PTS, and PPG. Both have increased substantially. Unfortunately, given that Bargnani's shooting efficiency has decreased this year, he requires more shot attempts to get those points, and each missed shot hurts the team. Sure, he's making more shots and scoring more points, but all those additional missed shots fall into the hands of the opposing teams, which use the extra possessions to score more of their own points. Right now, Bargnani's shooting efficiency is just barely above the average numbers for power forwards and centres, and coming from a guy for whom shooting is supposed to be a strength, that's not a good sign.

Bargnani is a "scorer" who doesn't score very efficiently, one who also falls short in almost every other area of the game. Although his rebounding is particularly poor this year, he has always been a poor rebounder. Rather than hypothesizing that Evans (and Bosh before him) are "stealing his rebounds", perhaps the simpler explanation - that Bargnani simply can't or won't rebound - is the best one? After he's had a few more games without Evans, I'll take a look at his rebounds before and after Evans went down with injury, and I suspect that there will be little difference between the numbers.

After all, with Evans out, all that means is that someone else will be "stealing" rebounds away from him, right? Eventually, one must accept that Bargnani is simply a terrible, terrible rebounder.


Finally, let me address the following anonymous comment:

Wins Produced and defensive capabilities have absolutely nothing to do with making the all-star games. The majority of fans will never vote based on that, and I guarantee Coaches don't break down WP numbers to make decisions in their voting.

It all comes down to who they 'feel' deserves it (although from my experience name recognition tends to be paramount). While more hardcore fans will base decisions on advanced numbers, don't expect an all-star game, that is for fun and completely irrelevant, to be based on that.

If he does make the all-star game (and I'm not saying he will) it will be completely based on his scoring.

I'm also going to laugh my ass off if shaq gets voted to the all-star game by either the fans or coaches.

While it is true that the majority of fans do not take defensive capabilities (and certainly WP) into account when they are filling out their all-star ballots, that doesn't make it right. I think it would be better if fans learned to recognize more productive players and rewarded them accordingly. Of course, certain defensive players - like four-time all-star Ben Wallace - do manage to make get fan recognition, so the argument that fans completely ignore defensive is not quite accurate.

It has been shown that, time and time again, fans, coaches, and most members of the media use scoring to determine awards - no question about that. We also know that certain big-name players - Jordan (Wizards-era), Shaq (post Lakers), Vince Carter (most of the time), Yao Ming (while injured), and others - get voted in all the time, even when they don't deserve it. We also always hear arguments about how "entertaining", "exciting", and "fun" some players are to watch, and how that makes them qualify for the all-star game. Here's a shocking idea: how about the most productive players in the league make the all-star game?

Furthermore, do we really need to create all-star ballots in the first place? How many people actually fill out the physical ballots at arenas? I'm certain that most of the balloting happens online. Why not open up the online ballot to every single player in the league, removing the need to write players in? When using an online ballot, it's not like the NBA has to worry about printing costs and must keep the list of players short.


The team stats for week six will be up in a couple of days - I'm having computer problems at the moment. Also in store over the next little bit is the Raptors' all-time wins produced leaders, analysis that will be Powered by Nerd Numbers.

 - Devin

Top 3 draft picks (part II)

New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.


As a follow-up to the last post about top three draft picks, I've made some modifications to my first table (new spreadsheet still here):



Certain people were blinded by some big numbers, so I added some new parts. The first, "title teams without own top 3 draft pick," is pretty self-explanatory, but I figure I'd better explain it anyways. That counts the number of teams that won a championship without having a player on their roster that said team drafted in the top three slots. Any difference between the numbers in this new category and the previous number of 88.9% (40/45) can be explained by trades or free agency. That means that only 29 teams - 64.4% - of teams that won a championship won it with a player that they themselves took with a top three selection. Not as rosy a number, is it?

It's still a rather large number, but as with John McCain, it gets worse (sorry Canadian readers, you'll have to go to the Comedy Network site instead...trust me, I hate it too). The last category explains the number of top three picks that won one or more championships with the team that drafted them. Of the 135 top three picks taken from 1966-2010, only 13 (not 16 as it says in the table, because Baylor, West, and Barry were drafted before 1966) managed to win a championship with the team that drafted them. Between them, these 13 players have managed to win 27 championships. Who are these players, and how many titles did they win with the team that drafted them?

• Michael Jordan, 6
• Magic Johnson, 5
• Tim Duncan, 4
• Kevin McHale, 3
• Hakeem Olajuwon, 2
• David Robinson, 2
• Isiah Thomas, 2
• Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1
• Bill Walton, 1
• Wes Unseld, 1
• Sean Elliott, 1
• Darko Milicic, 1
• Cazzie Russell, 1

Of these players, most are all-time greats. Jordan, Johnson, Duncan, McHale, Olajuwon, Abdul-Jabbar, Walton, Unseld, and Robinson fall into this category. Sean Elliott and Isiah Thomas were over-rated scorers - occasionally good players who weren't the real driving forces behind their teams (and Elliott was traded away and then re-acquired prior to winning a title with the team that drafted him). Cazzie Russell played most of his career before turnovers were tracked, but I suspect that he'd fall into the same category as Elliott and Thomas (or worse). And then we have Milicic (no comment necessary, I hope).

The fact is that very few teams that have a top three pick will celebrate a championship with the player they draft; only 9.6% of teams have managed to win a championship with a top three pick that they've drafted (from 1966-2010). In order to be successful, teams need to have several good players and at least one superstar player. Most rookies aren't superstar players, and most top three picks don't play with good teammates. All of this leads me to say (again) that the Raptors need to build a good team, ditch bad contracts, learn how to draft, and stop worrying about tanking.


Next time I talk about top three picks, I'm going to compare championship teams to non-championship teams. Originally I was going to include that analysis in this post, but it's going to take a lot of work and be rather long, so this'll have to tide you over for now.

 - Devin

Arturo's 100 Worst Seasons/Players in the NBA since 1978

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


Arturo has done a lot of number-crunching on historical productivity in the NBA, and yesterday, he posted two lists: the 100 worst seasons since 1978 and the 100 worst players since 1978.

Can you guess where this is going?

Just click the link. If you are looking for more information from the Raptors' perspective, you can take a look at my front-office audit or the ultimate Bargs post.

 - Devin

Team Stats Update

New readers, please check out the basics before leaving any comments.


Here are the updated team stats (current as of 11/20/10) (full spreadsheet here):



Raptors have moved up quite a bit (and this doesn't even include the victory over the Celtics earlier today). Last time I took a look at this, the Raps were ranked 25th in the league in WP48 and 12th in the East; now they are ranked 20th in the league and 10th in the East. There's a bit of a log-jam from 18th-24th though, so don't read too much into it yet. The story remains largely the same; the Raptors still can't shoot, especially three-pointers. Perhaps the Raptors actually intend to use Peja to boost their production for the three-point line?

Right now, the surprises for me are the Hornets (league 5th, West 3rd), the Pacers (league 10th, East 6th), the Nets (league 23rd, East 11th), and the Kings (league 25th, West 13th). The Warriors and Trailblazers haven't really lived up to my expectations either, but they have dealt with relatively unexpected injuries (Oden was expected; Roy, not so much).

 - Devin

2010-11 All-Star Ballot

New readers, please read the basics before leaving any comments.


It's mid-November, so you know what that means! That's right, the ballot for this year's all-star game is up and running. Now, I know what you're thinking: isn't it a little bit too early to tell which players will end up having a good (half)season? Of course it is. But the ballot-organizers get together and select the players who are going to be on the list before the season even starts. They are also somewhat restrained by trying to pick at least three players - one guard, one forward, and one centre - from each team, while limiting the totals to 48 guards, 48 forwards, and 24 centres (divide those numbers in half for the conference numbers).

But these are members of the press who select the ballots - not Statistical Experts (TM) like us Wages of Wins Network analysts (I get to use that title because my season predictions are currently beating John Hollinger of ESPN). How would I have selected the 2010-11 All-Star ballot, and how does it compare to the real one? Here is the real ballot:



Based on last year's total wins, here are the funny picks:

• Mario Chalmers, Heat
• DeMar DeRozan, Raptors
• Boris Diaw, Bobcats
• Rashard Lewis, Magic
• Linas Kleiza, Raptors
• Elton Brand, Sixers
• Thaddeus Young, Sixers
• Shaquille O'Neal, Celtics
• Roy Hibbert, Pacers
• Andrea Bargnani, Raptors
• Eric Gordon, Clippers
• Derek Fisher, Lakers
• Aaron Brooks, Rockets
• Tony Parker, Spurs
• Corey Brewer, Timberwolves
• Monta Ellis, Warriors
• Jeff Green, Thunder
• Michael Beasley, Timberwolves
• Chris Kaman, Clippers
• Mehmet Okur, Jazz

And here is what my ballot would look like:



Basically, all I did was take the top players (in terms of total wins produced) and slot them in - with one exception: I added Blake Griffin in with the West forwards. I also did a few tricky things with positions in order to make the All-Star ballot as stacked as possible, and fans of the Clippers, Sixers, Pacers, and Wizards will be sad to know that their favourite teams failed to reach the desired three players. If the league got mad at me for that and I had to include at least three players from each team, I'd exchange the following players:

• Marcin Gortat of the Magic for Andray Blatche of the Wizards
• C.J. Watson of the Bulls for Gilbert Arenas of the Wizards
• Anthony Parker of the Cavs for Evan Turner of the Sixers
• Terrence Williams of the Nets for Brandon Rush of the Pacers
• Erick Dampier of the TBDs for DeAndre Jordan of the Clippers

None of these switches would be particularly devastating to anyone involved.


How do the lists compare? Here is the difference between the two lists at the team level:



Pretty interesting that, despite several changes at the player level, things remain relatively similar at the team level. This is probably because the members of the press take into consideration (both consciously and unconsciously) how successful teams are when they choose who gets on the ballot.


Just thought I'd post on this topic while it's current. Updated team stats (and maybe more about top three picks...if I can stomach it) coming in the next few days.

 - Devin

NBA GMs: Making the best decisions given limited information

Andres over at Nerdnumbers has his weekly podcast up - go check it out.
Done yet (and don't say no)? Good.

In the podcast, Arturo comes right out and says that NBA GMs are stupid. Then Andres reminds him that if he wants to do stat work in the NBA, he should be more friendly to GMs, and so Arturo amends his statement: "NBA GMs make the best decisions given their limited information." What led to this discussion? The annual NBA GM Survey. My favourite one - when it comes to the Raptors, because there's a lot of crazy stuff in there - is the following prediction:

Which team will be most improved in 2010-11?

1. Miami - 39.3%
2. New York - 14.3%
3. Washington - 14.3%
4. Clippers - 10.7%
5. New Jersey - 10.7%
6. Philadelphia - 7.1%
7. Toronto - 3.6%

That means that at least one out of the 30 NBA GMs (and the percentage actually works out to 1/28, so two GMs didn't vote, or something weird happened) thinks that the Raptors are going to improve on last year's 40-42 record to such a degree that they improve more than any team in the league. Now, at the start of the summer (before free agency) things looked much more optimistic than they do now; when Matt Barnes was going to sign with the team, things looked a lot better; before Ed Davis injured himself playing pickup ball in Mississauga, things looked better. But right now, things don't look good for the Raptors. And you, Mr. Anonymous NBA GM, are telling me that not only are the Raptors going improve on last year's record, but that the Raptors will actually improve more than any other team in the league? More than Miami? How did you get your job again?

Previously, my prediction for the Raptors was around 35 wins, but I was being optimistic and it was done using a rather simplistic method. Pretty soon I will post my more complicated win predictions for all teams, predict all the award winners, and take a pre-season stab at who will win the Championship. But for right now, I will leave you with the following number:

28

(Gold star if you can guess its significance)

 - Devin.