Quick thoughts: 2011 NBA Draft

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I’ll offer more in-depth coverage shortly, but here are my quick thoughts on the 2011 NBA draft. If you need more draft data in the meantime, take a look at my full draft prospects preview.

Nuggets, Knicks, and the 'Melo Effect'

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While the Raptors haven't been very interesting lately - although they did pull off a nice upset of the Thunder before getting absolutely walloped by the Nuggets last night - I've been looking into other things. One of these things, incidentally, was the improvement in the play of the Nuggets since they traded away Carmelo Anthony. And if you don't believe that the Nuggets have improved, here are some stats for you, because here at the Wages of Wins Network, we're all about stats:

Just what the Raps need

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Yes, the fabled Carmelo Anthony trade supposedly finally happened. But apparently the Nuggets aren't totally happy with newly acquired Danilo Gallinari - here's what ESPN had to say about it:

Denver may also be working on plans for newly acquired players Danilo Gallinari and Raymond Felton.

League sources told ESPN The Magazine's Ric Bucher that the Nuggets are not expected to keep Gallinari once their three-team trade is completed. 

ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard reported that the New Jersey Nets may be interested in acquiring the perimeter-shooting forward but the market for the Italian may also include the Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers and Toronto Raptors.

Really? One deep-shooting, poor rebounding, 6'10"+ Italian forward isn't enough for the Raps?

Well actually, he's a much better shooter than anyone else on the team right now, and he would give the team another three-point shooter (which the team desperately needs). But if the Raptors do acquire him, please, please, PLEASE play him at small forward and DeRozan at shooting guard! A front court of Bargnani and Gallinari would probably shatter the team record for fewest rebounds in a game, which is 24 - keep that number handy if Gallinari ever starts at PF in Toronto.

 - Devin

Nerd Numbers: Dan and Dre podcast

Andres of Nerd Numbers has recently started a weekly podcast in which he discusses the NBA, basketball, and other sports (mostly Denver teams) with his brother Dan. Andres, of course, analyzes the stats from a Wins Produced perspective; Dan is a stats "skeptic" and prefers his own original blend of traditional basketball thinking and idiosyncratic whimsy. Last week I determined that Dan was more convincing. This week's podcast has a few interesting topics:

• Andres has declared me to be "the stats ambassador to Canada". I need to put that on my resumé.
• Dan would rather have Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol than Luol Deng and Joakim Noah. Given that Deng is better than Gay and that Noah is better than Gasol, I'll have to go with the pair of Bulls.
• Dan keeps seems confused about the definition of a "good player". Good players don't necessarily have the best skills; they don't necessarily win games of one-on-one against everybody. "Good players" are those who help their team win more than the average player; the greater the degree to which they help their team win, the better the player.
• Apparently not even Dan likes Bargnani. Somewhere, somehow, someone in a position of power on another team is going to be impressed by Bargnani's PPG average and make a bid for him. At this point I can't imagine that there are many offers that I would turn down.
• They talked about baseball and football (snooze).

This week's contest was a lot closer, but...I declare Andres the winner! Dan put up a good fight, but in the end, Andres gave 110% and just out-hustled him.

I also have some strategic advice for Andres:

• Explain how Wins Produced determines "good" players and "bad" players. Explain which events on the court lead to "positive outcomes" (aka winning) and which lead to "negative outcomes" (aka losing). Use general situations and avoid using specific players at first. Once you've convinced him of the logic behind Wins Produced, he'll have to agree with its evaluation of players.
• I think Dan is better at using rhetoric than Andres. Andres: practice makes perfect!

Dan's doing pretty well - given that he's on the wrong side. I guess my only advice to him is to keep up the style that made him successful in the past and deny, deny, deny.

 - Devin.

Fake Trades with the Nuggets

A while back Andres wrote a post on his blog detailing some trades he'd like to see the Nuggets make as they deal with the Carmelo Anthony situation. One of his scenarios involved the Raptors:

Trade to Toronto for Jose Calderon and Amir Johnson

• Jose Calderon (0.141 WP48 0.111 WS48 16.5 PER 0.111)
• Amir Johnson (0.168 WP48 0.150 WS48 16.7 PER)

On talk radio the other night I heard a suggestion was to re-sign Melo and send him to Toronto as punishment for torturing us. I love it, so why not start it this season? The issue is we’d have to wait until December 15^th for Amir’s contract to be tradeable. It is doubtful Melo would want to resign in Toronto. It’s also unlikely Toronto wants another star that’s going to leave. Also odds are Calderon will be gone by then. All that said, this would be my favorite trade to take place (with apologies to Devin)

I think it goes without saying that I didn't like this scenario. In response, I'm going to come up with some more palatable options for the Raptors:

1. Nuggets send Carmelo Anthony to the Raptors for Marcus Banks, Reggie Evans, and Andrea Bargnani
2. Nuggets send Anthony, Ty Lawson, and Renaldo Balkman to the Raptors for Banks, Evans, Bargnani, and DeRozan
3. Nuggets send Anthony, Lawson, Balkman, and Nene to the Raptors for Banks, Evans, Bargnani, DeRozan, and Calderon
4. Nuggets send Anthony, Lawson, Balkman, Chris Andersen, and J.R. Smith to the Raptors for Banks, Evans, Bargnani, DeRozan, and Calderon

Let me stress that none of these trade are rumoured or likely to happen - they are simply wishful thinking on my part. And in two months, when my wishful thinking can start to include Barbosa and David Andersen, there will be more fantasy options available.

 - Devin.